Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← AI is a slow takeoff, and it will take years to understand what it can actually do.
17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 7 Sept 2008 to 27 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws
Everything filed under OpenAI
OpenAI
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under design
design
Everything filed under infrastructure
infrastructure Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: AI is a slow takeoff, and it will take years to understand what it can actually do. AI is a slow takeoff, and it will take years to understand what it can actually do. Last stated 5 days ago
27 Sept 2026
MG
Molly Graham — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever. — tap to centre the map on it There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever. Last stated 4 weeks ago
6 Sept 2026
AA
Anish Acharya — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Everyone is still extremely early in working out how AI changes design, and nobody has it figured out. — tap to centre the map on it Everyone is still extremely early in working out how AI changes design, and nobody has it figured out. Last stated 2 months ago
16 Aug 2026
IS
Ian Silber — holds since 2026-08-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI is not fundamentally different from other software products. — tap to centre the map on it AI is not fundamentally different from other software products. Last stated a week ago
25 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The question to answer about AI infrastructure is not what you do in the next five years but what you do for the next fifty. — tap to centre the map on it The question to answer about AI infrastructure is not what you do in the next five years but what you do for the next fifty. Last stated 11 months ago
12 Nov 2025
SN
Satya Nadella — holds since 2025-11-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood. — tap to centre the map on it The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood. Last stated 2 weeks ago
18 Sept 2026
EM
Ethan Mollick — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The next shift in AI will probably be agents that are more proactive toward you than you are toward them. — tap to centre the map on it The next shift in AI will probably be agents that are more proactive toward you than you are toward them. Last stated 3 weeks ago
8 Sept 2026
RU
Roman Ugarte — holds since 2026-09-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. — tap to centre the map on it We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. Last stated 11 months ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. — tap to centre the map on it A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. Last stated 2 years ago
7 May 2024
BS
Buck Shlegeris — holds since 2024-05-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A deep theoretical understanding to predict AI behavior is unattainable. — tap to centre the map on it A deep theoretical understanding to predict AI behavior is unattainable. Last stated a week ago
23 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. — tap to centre the map on it A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. Last stated a month ago
26 Aug 2026
HK
Henrik Karlsson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. — tap to centre the map on it A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. Last stated 4 weeks ago
3 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. — tap to centre the map on it "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. Last stated 10 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. Last stated 3 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. — tap to centre the map on it A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. Last stated 7 months ago
13 Mar 2026
DP
Dylan Patel — holds since 2026-03-13 — tap for who they are
At the centre
AI is a slow takeoff, and it will take years to understand what it can actually do.
Holds Read this korrent →
There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever.
Holds
Everyone is still extremely early in working out how AI changes design, and nobody has it figured out.
Holds
AI is not fundamentally different from other software products.
Holds
The question to answer about AI infrastructure is not what you do in the next five years but what you do for the next fifty.
Holds
The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood.
Holds
The next shift in AI will probably be agents that are more proactive toward you than you are toward them.
Holds
We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it.
Holds
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds
A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail.
Holds
A deep theoretical understanding to predict AI behavior is unattainable.
Holds
A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score.
Holds
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it.
Holds
Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers.
Holds
"Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next.
Holds
A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number.
Holds
A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from.
Holds