A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives.

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• Expecting a slow takeoff means expecting AI to matter more and sooner, not less; the disagreement is about what happens before superintelligence, not after. PCPaul Christiano24 Feb 2018
• There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever. AAAnish Acharya6 Sept 2026
• AI is a slow takeoff, and it will take years to understand what it can actually do. MGMolly Graham27 Sept 2026
• Slower AI progress does not obviously help: a rogue swarm is not much more likely to be caught if takeoff takes twice as long. ACAjeya Cotra1 Sept 2026
• A deliberately slower pace of AI model releases would still feel faster than the pace of AI improvement that came before it. BHByrne Hobart14 Sept 2026

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