korrents

korrents · piece

Takeoff speeds

Paul Christiano · 24 Feb 2018 · sideways-view.com ↗

6 korrents from this piece

Paul Christiano did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. Our reading

    A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives.

    Their wordsI currently think a slow takeoff is significantly more likely.
    Interesting

  2. Our reading

    Expecting a slow takeoff means expecting AI to matter more and sooner, not less; the disagreement is about what happens before superintelligence, not after.

    Their wordsThe main disagreement is not about what will happen once we have a superintelligent AI, it’s about what will happen before we have a superintelligent AI.
    Interesting

  3. Our reading

    There will be a complete four-year doubling of world output before there is ever a one-year doubling.

    Their wordsThere will be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles.
    Interesting

  4. Our reading

    Incredibly powerful AI will arrive into a world that is already being transformed and already alarmed, not into a world like today's.

    Their wordsIn particular, this means that incredibly powerful AI will emerge in a world where crazy stuff is already happening (and probably everyone is already freaking out).
    Interesting

  5. Our reading

    Technologies are almost always preceded by slightly worse versions of themselves, and there is no reason for AI to be the exception.

    Their wordsThings are usually preceded by worse versions, even in cases where there are weak reasons to expect a discontinuous jump.
    Interesting

  6. Our reading

    The gap between chimps and humans is no evidence that a small increase in compute yields an explosion of capability, because evolution was not optimising chimps for technology.

    Their wordsBut chimp evolution is not primarily selecting for making and using technology, for doing science, or for facilitating cultural accumulation.
    Interesting