Paul Christiano
AI alignment researcher. Led the alignment team at OpenAI, founded the Alignment Research Center, and wrote the case for a continuous rather than explosive path to advanced AI at The Sideways View.
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Their wordsI currently think a slow takeoff is significantly more likely.
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Their wordsThe main disagreement is not about what will happen once we have a superintelligent AI, it’s about what will happen before we have a superintelligent AI.
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Their wordsThere will be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles.
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Their wordsIn particular, this means that incredibly powerful AI will emerge in a world where crazy stuff is already happening (and probably everyone is already freaking out).
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Their wordsThings are usually preceded by worse versions, even in cases where there are weak reasons to expect a discontinuous jump.
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Their wordsBut chimp evolution is not primarily selecting for making and using technology, for doing science, or for facilitating cultural accumulation.