korrents

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Iran and the opportunities and limits of an “IAEA for AI”

Miles Brundage · 18 Jun 2025 · milesbrundage.substack.com ↗

3 korrents from this piece

Miles Brundage did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. Our reading

    Global computing supply chains are easier to monitor than nuclear supply chains because so few companies make the key equipment.

    Their wordsI think computing supply chains are much easier to monitor than nuclear ones - there is only one TSMC and one ASML, but there are nine and maybe soon ten nuclear powers

  2. Our reading

    An international AI safety body modeled on the IAEA would not by itself be enough to prevent AI-related geopolitical crises.

    Their wordsthe current situation in Iran shows that even if an "IAEA for AI" is necessary for some purposes, it won't be sufficient for resolving the tricky geopolitical issues raised by AI.

  3. Our reading

    The time between deciding to cross a dangerous AI capability threshold and actually crossing it could be extremely short, even seconds.

    Their wordsWith AI, breakout times could conceivably be very short - it could be hours, minutes, or even seconds for some very specific but important change to occur.