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← Domain experts consistently underestimate how quickly AI can master their field and surpass them.
17 connected korrents · 18 moments on record from 3 Nov 2008 to 14 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under energy
energy
Everything filed under solar
solar
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under nuclear power
nuclear power Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Domain experts consistently underestimate how quickly AI can master their field and surpass them. Domain experts consistently underestimate how quickly AI can master their field and surpass them. Last stated today
14 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Agency and clock speed beat domain experience in a hire, and in a fast-moving field experience is often a crutch of habits that need discarding. — tap to centre the map on it Agency and clock speed beat domain experience in a hire, and in a fast-moving field experience is often a crutch of habits that need discarding. Last stated 11 months ago
5 Oct 2025
AC
Albert Cheng — holds since 2025-10-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built within the next few years. — tap to centre the map on it AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built within the next few years. Last stated 2 years ago
20 Dec 2024
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The least verifiable part of AI research is the judgement call about what goes into the one big training run. — tap to centre the map on it The least verifiable part of AI research is the judgement call about what goes into the one big training run. Last stated a month ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Bigger is smarter, always: bringing your special domain knowledge to the model is the wrong side of the bitter lesson. — tap to centre the map on it Bigger is smarter, always: bringing your special domain knowledge to the model is the wrong side of the bitter lesson. Last stated 6 months ago
11 Mar 2026
SY
Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Forecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they underestimate AI capability, and the spending is what drives the next leap. — tap to centre the map on it Forecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they underestimate AI capability, and the spending is what drives the next leap. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Aug 2023
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met years apart rather than together. — tap to centre the map on it AI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met years apart rather than together. Last stated 5 months ago
6 Apr 2026
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2026-04-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI helps exactly as far as the work is predictable and well documented, and stops helping on anything cutting edge. — tap to centre the map on it AI helps exactly as far as the work is predictable and well documented, and stops helping on anything cutting edge. Last stated a year ago
22 Mar 2025
TH
ThePrimeagen — holds since 2025-03-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. Last stated 2 years ago
2 Feb 2025
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Food from thin air" is not from thin air: it runs on water, minerals, ammonia and industrial plant. — tap to centre the map on it "Food from thin air" is not from thin air: it runs on water, minerals, ammonia and industrial plant. Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jun 2026
CS
Chris Smaje — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A future of constrained energy will need more people working the land, and that is not the same as going back to the past. — tap to centre the map on it A future of constrained energy will need more people working the land, and that is not the same as going back to the past. Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jun 2026
CS
Chris Smaje — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: American manufacturing output cannot meaningfully rise without first building large amounts of new electricity generation. — tap to centre the map on it American manufacturing output cannot meaningfully rise without first building large amounts of new electricity generation. Last stated a year ago
6 Apr 2025
MH
Molson Hart — holds since 2025-04-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Europe cannot meet its energy needs from renewables alone and will need nuclear power, solar power from deserts elsewhere, or both. — tap to centre the map on it Europe cannot meet its energy needs from renewables alone and will need nuclear power, solar power from deserts elsewhere, or both. Last stated 18 years ago
3 Nov 2008
DM
David MacKay — holds since 2008-11-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Most nuclear companies will not have this solved by 2031, and many still will not by 2035, because they have the wrong mindset. — tap to centre the map on it Most nuclear companies will not have this solved by 2031, and many still will not by 2035, because they have the wrong mindset. Last stated 4 weeks ago
15 Aug 2026
IT
Isaiah Taylor — holds since 2026-08-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A data centre powered by solar and batteries alone needs an array so oversized that the design is not worth building. — tap to centre the map on it A data centre powered by solar and batteries alone needs an array so oversized that the design is not worth building. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Apr 2024
AV
Austin Vernon — holds since 2024-04-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A solar panel is a manufactured object that produces wealth rather than consuming it, at a hundred times the rate of the best farmland. — tap to centre the map on it A solar panel is a manufactured object that produces wealth rather than consuming it, at a hundred times the rate of the best farmland. Last stated 2 years ago
9 Nov 2024
CH
Casey Handmer — holds since 2024-11-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A solar system holding a trillion humans is the right thing to aim at, because a population that size would have a thousand Mozarts and a thousand Einsteins alive at once. — tap to centre the map on it A solar system holding a trillion humans is the right thing to aim at, because a population that size would have a thousand Mozarts and a thousand Einsteins alive at once. Last stated 3 years ago
14 Dec 2023
JB
Jeff Bezos — holds since 2023-12-14 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Domain experts consistently underestimate how quickly AI can master their field and surpass them.
Holds Read this korrent →
Agency and clock speed beat domain experience in a hire, and in a fast-moving field experience is often a crutch of habits that need discarding.
Holds AC Albert Cheng
AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built within the next few years.
Holds MB Miles Brundage
The least verifiable part of AI research is the judgement call about what goes into the one big training run.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
Bigger is smarter, always: bringing your special domain knowledge to the model is the wrong side of the bitter lesson.
Holds SY Steve Yegge
Forecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they underestimate AI capability, and the spending is what drives the next leap.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
AI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met years apart rather than together.
Holds HT Helen Toner
AI helps exactly as far as the work is predictable and well documented, and stops helping on anything cutting edge.
Holds TH ThePrimeagen
AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.
Holds AC Ajeya CotraSA Scott AlexanderMB Miles Brundage
"Food from thin air" is not from thin air: it runs on water, minerals, ammonia and industrial plant.
Holds CS Chris Smaje
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds AI Alex Imas
A future of constrained energy will need more people working the land, and that is not the same as going back to the past.
Holds CS Chris Smaje
American manufacturing output cannot meaningfully rise without first building large amounts of new electricity generation.
Holds MH Molson Hart
Europe cannot meet its energy needs from renewables alone and will need nuclear power, solar power from deserts elsewhere, or both.
Holds DM David MacKay
Most nuclear companies will not have this solved by 2031, and many still will not by 2035, because they have the wrong mindset.
Holds IT Isaiah Taylor
A data centre powered by solar and batteries alone needs an array so oversized that the design is not worth building.
Holds AV Austin Vernon
A solar panel is a manufactured object that produces wealth rather than consuming it, at a hundred times the rate of the best farmland.
Holds CH Casey Handmer
A solar system holding a trillion humans is the right thing to aim at, because a population that size would have a thousand Mozarts and a thousand Einsteins alive at once.
Holds JB Jeff Bezos