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← Forecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they…

17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 11 Oct 2018 to 8 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under scaling laws scaling laws Everything filed under AI and jobs AI and jobs Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Everything filed under AI agents AI agents Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Forecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they underestimate AI capability, and the spending is what drives the next leap. Forecasters underestimate AI spending evenmore than they underestimate AIcapability, and the spending is whatdrives the next leap. Last stated 3 years ago 29 Aug 2023 AC Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. — tap to centre the map on it Underestimating near-term AIprogress is itself a danger, whichis why researchers should registertheir forecasts in public. Last stated 3 years ago 29 Aug 2023 AC Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: Domain experts consistently underestimate how quickly AI can master their field and surpass them. — tap to centre the map on it Domain experts consistentlyunderestimate how quickly AI canmaster their field and surpass them. Last stated a month ago 14 Sept 2026 NS Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: More AI models that deliver top-tier performance at lower cost are needed. — tap to centre the map on it More AI models that deliver top-tierperformance at lower cost areneeded. Last stated a month ago 10 Sept 2026 KD Kent C. Dodds — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: Higher-priced AI subscription tiers mainly buy more hours of agent usage rather than a smarter underlying model — tap to centre the map on it Higher-priced AI subscription tiersmainly buy more hours of agent usagerather than a smarter underlyingmodel Last stated 3 months ago 23 Jul 2026 EM Ethan Mollick — holds since 2026-07-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI capabilities will either remain below human or quickly become 100x cheaper than human. — tap to centre the map on it AI capabilities will either remainbelow human or quickly become 100xcheaper than human. Last stated 2 weeks ago 8 Oct 2026 ZM Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-10-08 — tap for who they are Same subject: Scaling up spending on expert human data has not been a major driver of progress in AI research. — tap to centre the map on it Scaling up spending on expert humandata has not been a major driver ofprogress in AI research. Last stated 2 months ago 11 Aug 2026 RG Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: Tech people tend to overestimate the risk of mass job loss from AI. — tap to centre the map on it Tech people tend to overestimate therisk of mass job loss from AI. Last stated 4 weeks ago 23 Sept 2026 SS Scott Sumner — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: Most current predictions about AI's imminent impact on the job market are naive. — tap to centre the map on it Most current predictions about AI'simminent impact on the job marketare naive. Last stated a year ago 25 Sept 2025 AK Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-09-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. — tap to centre the map on it "Scaling" was powerful because itwas one word: naming a researchdirection is what tells a wholefield what to do next. Last stated 11 months ago 25 Nov 2025 IS Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should bereported under a stated budget, oras a curve against test-time compute— never as a single number. Last stated 4 months ago 26 Jun 2026 NB Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. — tap to centre the map on it A lab should spend most of itscompute on research rather than onbuilding the next model, becauseresearch is where the tenfold yearlyefficiency gains come from. Last stated 7 months ago 13 Mar 2026 DP Dylan Patel — holds since 2026-03-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than peopleexpect, and ordinary scaling can beenough to solve problems that lookedvery hard. Last stated 2 years ago 2 Feb 2025 AC Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are SA Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are MB Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: As models keep growing, AI is running out of enough high-quality unique training tokens to keep up. — tap to centre the map on it As models keep growing, AI isrunning out of enough high-qualityunique training tokens to keep up. Last stated 4 months ago 24 Jun 2026 LW Lilian Weng — holds since 2026-06-24 — tap for who they are Same subject: Current techniques restrict pre-trained representation power because standard language models are unidirectional. — tap to centre the map on it Current techniques restrictpre-trained representation powerbecause standard language models areunidirectional. Last stated 8 years ago 11 Oct 2018 KT Kristina Toutanova — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are MC Ming-Wei Chang — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are KL Kenton Lee — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are JD Jacob Devlin — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: Models resemble each other because pre-training is the same everywhere; what differentiates labs now is RL and post-training. — tap to centre the map on it Models resemble each other becausepre-training is the same everywhere;what differentiates labs now is RLand post-training. Last stated 11 months ago 25 Nov 2025 IS Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: One pre-trained robot model now matches or beats the specialists that were fine-tuned with reinforcement learning for the very tasks they were built for. — tap to centre the map on it One pre-trained robot model nowmatches or beats the specialiststhat were fine-tuned withreinforcement learning for the verytasks they were built for. Last stated 2 months ago 12 Aug 2026 CF Chelsea Finn — holds since 2026-08-12 — tap for who they are Same subject: Pre-training is a crappy evolution: the practically buildable substitute for the process that gave animals their built-in hardware. — tap to centre the map on it Pre-training is a crappy evolution:the practically buildable substitutefor the process that gave animalstheir built-in hardware. Last stated a year ago 17 Oct 2025 AK Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
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At the centre Forecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they underestimate AI capability, and the spending is what drives the next leap. Last stated 29 Aug 2023 · 3 years ago Holds Ajeya Cotra Read this korrent →