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← Forecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they…
17 connected korrents · 14 moments on record from 29 Aug 2023 to 1 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AI agents
AI agents
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs
Everything filed under self-sovereign AI
self-sovereign AI
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market efficiency
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innovation Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Forecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they underestimate AI capability, and the spending is what drives the next leap. Forecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they underestimate AI capability, and the spending is what drives the next leap. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Aug 2023
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. — tap to centre the map on it Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Aug 2023
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Higher-priced AI subscription tiers mainly buy more hours of agent usage rather than a smarter underlying model — tap to centre the map on it Higher-priced AI subscription tiers mainly buy more hours of agent usage rather than a smarter underlying model Last stated 2 months ago
23 Jul 2026
EM
Ethan Mollick — holds since 2026-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Scaling up spending on expert human data has not been a major driver of progress in AI research. — tap to centre the map on it Scaling up spending on expert human data has not been a major driver of progress in AI research. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Most current predictions about AI's imminent impact on the job market are naive. — tap to centre the map on it Most current predictions about AI's imminent impact on the job market are naive. Last stated 11 months ago
25 Sept 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-09-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little. — tap to centre the map on it Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little. Last stated 3 months ago
10 Jun 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A competitor six months or a year behind the frontier can stay close, because the cost of AI falls more than tenfold every year. — tap to centre the map on it A competitor six months or a year behind the frontier can stay close, because the cost of AI falls more than tenfold every year. Last stated 8 months ago
8 Jan 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-01-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Trying to anticipate what AI will look like two model releases from now is a waste of time and a route to AI psychosis. — tap to centre the map on it Trying to anticipate what AI will look like two model releases from now is a waste of time and a route to AI psychosis. Last stated 2 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI helps exactly as far as the work is predictable and well documented, and stops helping on anything cutting edge. — tap to centre the map on it AI helps exactly as far as the work is predictable and well documented, and stops helping on anything cutting edge. Last stated a year ago
22 Mar 2025
TH
ThePrimeagen — holds since 2025-03-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A handful of AI agents is not a handful of colleagues, because agents agree with you constantly and colleagues tell you where you are wrong. — tap to centre the map on it A handful of AI agents is not a handful of colleagues, because agents agree with you constantly and colleagues tell you where you are wrong. Last stated 6 months ago
22 Mar 2026
NF
Nicole Forsgren — holds since 2026-03-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: After pre-training, post-training and test-time scaling, the fourth scaling law is agentic: multiplying AI by spawning agents, and the whole loop scales on one thing, compute. — tap to centre the map on it After pre-training, post-training and test-time scaling, the fourth scaling law is agentic: multiplying AI by spawning agents, and the whole loop scales on one thing, compute. Last stated 6 months ago
23 Mar 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-03-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Agent autonomy is a capability, not a product direction: what the person is actually trying to do decides whether more of it helps or ruins the thing. — tap to centre the map on it Agent autonomy is a capability, not a product direction: what the person is actually trying to do decides whether more of it helps or ruins the thing. Last stated 4 weeks ago
14 Aug 2026
SP
Sunil Pai — holds since 2026-08-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. — tap to centre the map on it A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. Last stated 2 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. — tap to centre the map on it A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth. — tap to centre the map on it AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth. Last stated 8 months ago
1 Jan 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses. — tap to centre the map on it A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses. Last stated a week ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself. — tap to centre the map on it A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself. Last stated a week ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Alignment is no solution to self-sovereign AI, because it is an unsolved problem whose answers cannot be imposed on every AI company on Earth. — tap to centre the map on it Alignment is no solution to self-sovereign AI, because it is an unsolved problem whose answers cannot be imposed on every AI company on Earth. Last stated a week ago
1 Sept 2026
DB
Dean W. Ball — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Forecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they underestimate AI capability, and the spending is what drives the next leap.
Holds AC Ajeya CotraRead this korrent →
Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
Higher-priced AI subscription tiers mainly buy more hours of agent usage rather than a smarter underlying model
Holds EM Ethan Mollick
Scaling up spending on expert human data has not been a major driver of progress in AI research.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
Most current predictions about AI's imminent impact on the job market are naive.
Holds
Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little.
Holds
A competitor six months or a year behind the frontier can stay close, because the cost of AI falls more than tenfold every year.
Holds JH Jensen Huang
Trying to anticipate what AI will look like two model releases from now is a waste of time and a route to AI psychosis.
Holds
AI helps exactly as far as the work is predictable and well documented, and stops helping on anything cutting edge.
Holds TH ThePrimeagen
A handful of AI agents is not a handful of colleagues, because agents agree with you constantly and colleagues tell you where you are wrong.
Holds NF Nicole Forsgren
After pre-training, post-training and test-time scaling, the fourth scaling law is agentic: multiplying AI by spawning agents, and the whole loop scales on one thing, compute.
Holds JH Jensen Huang
Agent autonomy is a capability, not a product direction: what the person is actually trying to do decides whether more of it helps or ruins the thing.
Holds
A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good.
Holds
A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office.
Holds AI Alex Imas
AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth.
Holds DA Dario Amodei
A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
Alignment is no solution to self-sovereign AI, because it is an unsolved problem whose answers cannot be imposed on every AI company on Earth.
Holds