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Forecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they underestimate AI capability, and the spending is what drives the next leap.

Drawn from what Ajeya Cotra said

Subjectscaling laws
What this subject means

scaling laws Whether more compute keeps buying more capability, and where the curve now bends -- pre-training, post-training, test-time.

What Ajeya Cotra actually said

  1. Ajeya Cotra AI researcher and grantmaker
    Most importantly, ML experts and superforecasters both seem to be massively underestimating future spending on training runs.

    Where this was said

    ↗Language models surprised usplanned-obsolescence.org

    29 Aug 2023

    All 4 korrents from this piecethis one is 2nd

Added to korrents 7 Sept 2026 · How quotes work · Something wrong? Tell us

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