Paul Kedrosky
Venture investor and writer; publishes on risk, complexity, finance, technology and economic history at paulkedrosky.com.
Paul Kedrosky did not write this page.
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Their wordsThe harder question is what revenue that spending implies, because the math is backwards, with revenue uncertain, but capex increasingly locked in.
- 1 day earlier
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Their wordsThese are all explosively larger markets when software begins acting rather than merely answering. Agents change what software companies can sell, and the plumbing beneath it.
↗Roundup: Cheap Thought, Costly Consequencespaulkedrosky.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsScarcity has exited cognition toward everything required to apply it: proprietary data, trusted access, physical infrastructure, distribution, and, yes, the scarcest resource of all, managerial competence.
↗Roundup: Cheap Thought, Costly Consequencespaulkedrosky.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsFalling AI costs strengthen the returns to ownership while weakening the bargaining position of replaceable labor.
↗Roundup: Cheap Thought, Costly Consequencespaulkedrosky.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 13 days earlier
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Their wordsIndex performance, retirement assets, corporate investment, and the wealth effect are becoming increasingly dependent on one interconnected technology trade.
↗Roundup: Capital, Confidence, and Contagionpaulkedrosky.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsinstitutional investors are reserving capital, managing exposure, and waiting for the two transactions that will define the AI market. The capital market effect is to suppress everything else.
↗The Glacial Lake Outburst Problem in AI IPOspaulkedrosky.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsBankers (and journalists) interpret the slowdown as deteriorating sentiment. Both are wrong.
↗The Glacial Lake Outburst Problem in AI IPOspaulkedrosky.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsThe AI buildout is no longer being financed from cash flow alone: its capital requirements are beginning to reshape the investment-grade debt market.
↗Roundup: Capital, Confidence, and Contagionpaulkedrosky.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThe remaining efficiency gap is now small enough that longer autonomous work becomes an engineering and deployment question, not a distant theoretical one.
↗Roundup: Capital, Confidence, and Contagionpaulkedrosky.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 3 days earlier
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Their wordsAI infrastructure spending is now large enough to alter the composition of US trade and national investment data.
↗Roundup: Capex, Trade, Risk, Climate, Call Centers, Concentration, etc.paulkedrosky.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThis is one of the clearest large-scale signs so far of AI replacing routine white-collar service work, and given regional dependencies-within the US and around the world-highly consequential.
↗Roundup: Capex, Trade, Risk, Climate, Call Centers, Concentration, etc.paulkedrosky.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThe claims are absurd, but the cultural shift is real: AI risk is no longer a specialist concern.
↗Roundup: Capex, Trade, Risk, Climate, Call Centers, Concentration, etc.paulkedrosky.com 3rd of 3 in this piece