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← Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why…
17 connected korrents · 16 moments on record from 7 Sept 2008 to 6 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under mathematics
mathematics
Everything filed under Silicon Valley
Silicon Valley
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Aug 2023
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The real danger in AI-driven growth is geographic: 50% growth in and around Silicon Valley and business as usual everywhere else. — tap to centre the map on it The real danger in AI-driven growth is geographic: 50% growth in and around Silicon Valley and business as usual everywhere else. Last stated 7 months ago
13 Feb 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-02-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. Last stated yesterday
6 Sept 2026
JP
Jakub Pachocki — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly. — tap to centre the map on it The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly. Last stated 4 weeks ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: It would be disappointing and surprising if the next five years of AI progress in mathematics produced no economically valuable improvements traceable to it. — tap to centre the map on it It would be disappointing and surprising if the next five years of AI progress in mathematics produced no economically valuable improvements traceable to it. Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Most current predictions about AI's imminent impact on the job market are naive. — tap to centre the map on it Most current predictions about AI's imminent impact on the job market are naive. Last stated 11 months ago
25 Sept 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-09-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The AI safety community's fixation on a model escaping its box has pushed the other significant AI risks out of the discussion, with little progress to show for it. — tap to centre the map on it The AI safety community's fixation on a model escaping its box has pushed the other significant AI risks out of the discussion, with little progress to show for it. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. — tap to centre the map on it Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. Last stated 3 weeks ago
20 Aug 2026
AD
Aswath Damodaran — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved. — tap to centre the map on it A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved. Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent. — tap to centre the map on it A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent. Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Academic credentials — grades, major, the prestige of the degree — barely matter to industry hiring. — tap to centre the map on it Academic credentials — grades, major, the prestige of the degree — barely matter to industry hiring. Last stated 15 years ago
28 Oct 2011
PM
Patrick McKenzie — holds since 2011-10-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Move fast and break things" is the wrong mantra when you are dealing with atoms; the job is to move fast and ship safely. — tap to centre the map on it "Move fast and break things" is the wrong mantra when you are dealing with atoms; the job is to move fast and ship safely. Last stated a month ago
3 Aug 2026
DD
Dmitri Dolgov — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: DeepSeek's paper was the single most important thing Silicon Valley researchers read in years. — tap to centre the map on it DeepSeek's paper was the single most important thing Silicon Valley researchers read in years. Last stated 8 months ago
8 Jan 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-01-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Moonshots succeed more often than Silicon Valley's use of the word admits -- we actually got to the moon. — tap to centre the map on it Moonshots succeed more often than Silicon Valley's use of the word admits -- we actually got to the moon. Last stated 3 weeks ago
20 Aug 2026
MH
Max Hodak — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder. — tap to centre the map on it AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder. Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that. — tap to centre the map on it AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that. Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
LF
Lex Fridman — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will transform how scientific discovery is done, and within two or three years a working scientist's job will already look dramatically different. — tap to centre the map on it AI will transform how scientific discovery is done, and within two or three years a working scientist's job will already look dramatically different. Last stated 3 weeks ago
18 Aug 2026
MK
Michael Kratsios — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public.
Holds AC Ajeya CotraRead this korrent →
The real danger in AI-driven growth is geographic: 50% growth in and around Silicon Valley and business as usual everywhere else.
Holds DA Dario Amodei
Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress.
Holds JP Jakub Pachocki
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds SA Scott Aaronson
The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
It would be disappointing and surprising if the next five years of AI progress in mathematics produced no economically valuable improvements traceable to it.
Holds GS Grant Sanderson
Most current predictions about AI's imminent impact on the job market are naive.
Holds
The AI safety community's fixation on a model escaping its box has pushed the other significant AI risks out of the discussion, with little progress to show for it.
Holds
Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching.
Holds AD Aswath DamodaranHM Howard Marks
A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved.
Holds GS Grant Sanderson
A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent.
Holds GS Grant Sanderson
Academic credentials — grades, major, the prestige of the degree — barely matter to industry hiring.
Holds PM Patrick McKenzie
"Move fast and break things" is the wrong mantra when you are dealing with atoms; the job is to move fast and ship safely.
Holds DD Dmitri Dolgov
DeepSeek's paper was the single most important thing Silicon Valley researchers read in years.
Holds JH Jensen Huang
Moonshots succeed more often than Silicon Valley's use of the word admits -- we actually got to the moon.
Holds MH Max Hodak
AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder.
Holds TT Terence Tao
AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that.
Holds LF Lex Fridman
AI will transform how scientific discovery is done, and within two or three years a working scientist's job will already look dramatically different.
Holds MK Michael Kratsios