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← Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why…
17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 7 Sept 2008 to 11 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
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investing
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AI alignment
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stock market
Everything filed under Silicon Valley
Silicon Valley
Everything filed under politics
politics Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Aug 2023
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The AI industry has significantly underestimated the risk that political forces outside its control could slow or halt progress in artificial intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it The AI industry has significantly underestimated the risk that political forces outside its control could slow or halt progress in artificial intelligence. Last stated a month ago
19 Sept 2026
TG
Tanner Greer — holds since 2026-09-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: People with business theses based on the idea that we are not yet at a certain technological threshold will be disrupted by AI's exponential progress faster than they think. — tap to centre the map on it People with business theses based on the idea that we are not yet at a certain technological threshold will be disrupted by AI's exponential progress faster than they think. Last stated 2 weeks ago
11 Oct 2026
PL
Pieter Levels — holds since 2026-10-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The real danger in AI-driven growth is geographic: 50% growth in and around Silicon Valley and business as usual everywhere else. — tap to centre the map on it The real danger in AI-driven growth is geographic: 50% growth in and around Silicon Valley and business as usual everywhere else. Last stated 8 months ago
13 Feb 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-02-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The rising level of public concern about AI extinction risk is overblown relative to how progress will actually unfold. — tap to centre the map on it The rising level of public concern about AI extinction risk is overblown relative to how progress will actually unfold. Last stated a month ago
19 Sept 2026
NL
Nathan Lambert — holds since 2026-09-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. Last stated 2 months ago
6 Sept 2026
JP
Jakub Pachocki — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The AI industry's near-term trajectory is driven more by finance and politics than by the underlying technology. — tap to centre the map on it The AI industry's near-term trajectory is driven more by finance and politics than by the underlying technology. Last stated a month ago
18 Sept 2026
RS
Robin Sloan — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly. — tap to centre the map on it The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. — tap to centre the map on it A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. Last stated 10 months ago
9 Dec 2025
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at. — tap to centre the map on it A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at. Last stated 5 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. — tap to centre the map on it A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. Last stated a year ago
21 May 2025
EZ
Ed Zitron — holds since 2025-05-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. — tap to centre the map on it A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. Last stated 8 months ago
3 Mar 2026
SB
Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. — tap to centre the map on it A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. Last stated 4 weeks ago
25 Sept 2026
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2026-09-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. Last stated 5 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model that could learn effectively from raw bitstrings or bytestrings would be extremely powerful, able to learn from any data modality — tap to centre the map on it A model that could learn effectively from raw bitstrings or bytestrings would be extremely powerful, able to learn from any data modality Last stated 3 years ago
10 Oct 2023
CH
Chip Huyen — holds since 2023-10-10 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public.
Holds Read this korrent →
The AI industry has significantly underestimated the risk that political forces outside its control could slow or halt progress in artificial intelligence.
Holds
People with business theses based on the idea that we are not yet at a certain technological threshold will be disrupted by AI's exponential progress faster than they think.
Holds
The real danger in AI-driven growth is geographic: 50% growth in and around Silicon Valley and business as usual everywhere else.
Holds
The rising level of public concern about AI extinction risk is overblown relative to how progress will actually unfold.
Holds
Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress.
Holds
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds
The AI industry's near-term trajectory is driven more by finance and politics than by the underlying technology.
Holds
The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly.
Holds
A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now.
Holds
A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate.
Holds
A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at.
Holds
A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price.
Holds
A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack.
Holds
A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market.
Holds
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds
A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted.
Holds
A model that could learn effectively from raw bitstrings or bytestrings would be extremely powerful, able to learn from any data modality
Holds