Howard Marks
Co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management; author of the Oaktree memos.
Howard Marks did not write this page.
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Their wordsDebt is neither a good thing nor a bad thing per se. Likewise, the use of leverage in the AI industry shouldn’t be applauded or feared.
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Their wordsAI may not be a tool for mankind, but rather something of a replacement.
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Their wordsGiven the vast potential of AI but also the large number of enormous unknowns, I think virtually no one can say for sure.
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Their wordsBubbles are best identified in retrospect.
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Their wordsThere’s a consistent history of transformational technologies generating excessive enthusiasm and investment, resulting in more infrastructure than is needed and asset prices that prove to have been too high. The excesses accelerate the adoption of the technology in a way that wouldn’t occur in their absence.
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Their wordsIf that enthusiasm doesn’t produce a bubble conforming to the historical pattern, that will be a first.
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Their wordsThere can be no way to participate fully in the potential benefits from the new technology without being exposed to the losses that will arise if the enthusiasm and thus investors’ behavior prove to have been excessive.
- 5 years earlier
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Our reading
The value-versus-growth distinction does not serve investors well in a fast-changing world.
Their wordsMy extensive discussions with Andrew led me to conclude that the focus on value versus growth doesn’t serve investors well in the fast-changing world in which we live.
↗Something of Value (memo to Oaktree clients)oaktreecapital.com
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Their wordsNot only are the traditional staples of classic value investing (readily discernable quantitative measures of cheapness in the here-and-now) no longer likely to produce a sustainable edge on their own, but the world has gotten more complex, with many more dynamics that can drive a decoupling of near-term metrics from valuation, both to the positive and negative.
↗Something of Value (memo to Oaktree clients)oaktreecapital.com
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Their wordsRather than being defined as one side of this artificial dichotomy, value investing should instead consist of buying whatever represents a better value proposition, taking all factors into account.
↗Something of Value (memo to Oaktree clients)oaktreecapital.com