korrents

korrents · piece

Is It a Bubble?

Howard Marks · 9 Dec 2025 · oaktreecapital.com

7 korrents from this piece

Howard Marks did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. Debt is neither a good thing nor a bad thing per se. Likewise, the use of leverage in the AI industry shouldn’t be applauded or feared.
  2. AI may not be a tool for mankind, but rather something of a replacement.
  3. Given the vast potential of AI but also the large number of enormous unknowns, I think virtually no one can say for sure.
  4. Bubbles are best identified in retrospect.
  5. There’s a consistent history of transformational technologies generating excessive enthusiasm and investment, resulting in more infrastructure than is needed and asset prices that prove to have been too high. The excesses accelerate the adoption of the technology in a way that wouldn’t occur in their absence.
  6. If that enthusiasm doesn’t produce a bubble conforming to the historical pattern, that will be a first.
  7. There can be no way to participate fully in the potential benefits from the new technology without being exposed to the losses that will arise if the enthusiasm and thus investors’ behavior prove to have been excessive.