Noah Smith
Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter.
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· held 18 months
Believed beforesaid
Their words thenIf you get a check during a pandemic, you’re not going to go out and spend it at restaurants and bars, because…well, there’s a pandemic. Instead, you’re more likely to stick it in the bank, pay down debt, or pay the back rent that you owe.
Nowsaid
Our readingNo longer believes this.
Their wordsI had some theory and some evidence on my side for this prediction, and yet I ended up being very wrong about what would happen to consumption.
↗Four things I got wrong since I started this blognoahpinion.blog