What Noah Smith thinks about demographics
Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter.
Noah Smith did not write this page.
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Only Noah Smith on demographics. See everyone on demographics
4 dated positions, 2024 to 2026, in their own words. Our reading of what Noah Smith has said — not written or endorsed by them.
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Their wordsGiven the timing and the microeconomic evidence, smartphones are the likeliest explanation for why instead of leveling out near 2, the total fertility rate in rich countries — and, increasingly, in middle-income countries — has busted right through that floor and headed down toward zero.
- 3 days earlier
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Their wordsDemographics won't start to hurt China until the 2040s at the earliest.
- 3 weeks earlier
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Their wordsThe white supermajority could be restored if you could get Republicans to simply reclassify Hispanics as "white", like they did for Italians once upon a time
- 2 years earlier
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Their wordsBut China’s economic might is not going to go “poof” and disappear from population aging; in fact, as I’ll explain, it probably won’t suffer significant problems from aging until the second half of this century.
↗China's demographics will be fine through mid-centurynoahpinion.blog