korrents

demographics

Who there will be: birth rates, population decline, and what a shrinking cohort does to everything downstream.

FilterEveryone, all time68 from 21 people
Group All Technologists 1Scientists 3Economists & investors 5Writers & journalists 7
Who Everyone LSLyman Stone 15 AEAlice Evans 12 RHRobin Hanson 7 DVDietrich Vollrath 5 GHGarrett Hardin 4 NSNoah Smith 4 SDSaloni Dattani 3 APAda Palmer 2 DHDavid Heinemeier Hansson 2 KDKent C. Dodds 2 LPLant Pritchett 2 BDBret Devereaux 1 EOEmily Oster 1 IFIrving Finkel 1 JBJennifer Burns 1 KJKeyu Jin 1 MGMalcolm Gladwell 1 RKRazib Khan 1 RBRyan Burge 1 TGTren Griffin 1 TCTyler Cowen 1
When All time Past 1 yearPast 3 yearsPast 5 years
  1. NS

    Noah Smith quoted

    Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter

    Our readingSmartphones are the most likely explanation for the decline in total fertility rates.

    Their wordsGiven the timing and the microeconomic evidence, smartphones are the likeliest explanation for why instead of leveling out near 2, the total fertility rate in rich countries — and, increasingly, in middle-income countries — has busted right through that floor and headed down toward zero.

    ↗Maybe the Rapture is already herenoahpinion.blog

  2. 3 days earlier
  3. NS

    Noah Smith quoted

    Our readingDemographics won't start to hurt China until the 2040s at the earliest.

    China

    Their wordsDemographics won't start to hurt China until the 2040s at the earliest.

    ↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com

  4. 3 weeks earlier
  5. NS

    Noah Smith quoted

    Our readingThe white supermajority could be restored if Republicans could be persuaded to reclassify Hispanics as white, as they once did for Italians.

    Their wordsThe white supermajority could be restored if you could get Republicans to simply reclassify Hispanics as "white", like they did for Italians once upon a time

    ↗@Noahpinion on Xx.com

  6. 3 weeks earlier
  7. DH

    David Heinemeier Hansson quoted

    Creator of Ruby on Rails, CTO of 37signals

    Our readingFalling birth rates make a society less able to be hopeful, because nihilism creeps in when people have no stake in the future.

    Their wordsI think this is one of the great tragedies of the moment, is the falling birth rates are making it more difficult for people to be excited about a more prosperous future that is difficult to get to. Because if we're planting trees of which our children will not sit in the shades, I don't know, maybe we should just make some lumber and burn it all down, right? I think there's a nihilism that can sneak into society much more easily when we are not DNA invested in the future

    ↗DHH: Future of Programming, AI, Agentic Engineering, Vibe Coding & Linux | Lex Fridman Podcast #501youtube.com 27th of 41 in this recording

  8. 2 days earlier
  9. RB

    Ryan Burge quoted

    Professor of practice at the Danforth Center on Religion…

    Our readingA religion cannot revive itself by encouraging its members to have more children.

    religion

    Their wordsEmbracing an approach to religious renewal by encouraging fertility doesn’t seem like a strategy that will move the needle in a significant way.

    ↗Do Religious Families Actually Have More Kids?graphsaboutreligion.com 3rd of 5 in this piece

  10. 4 days earlier
  11. LS

    Lyman Stone quoted

    Demographer

    Our readingCalling the fall in birth rates a mystery is not humility but obscurantism: there is already a good causal account of it.

    humility

    Their wordswe really do have a good causal model of how to think about fertility decline!

    ↗We Actually Know A Lot About Fertility Declinelymanstone.substack.com 1st of 5 in this piece

  13. LS

    Lyman Stone quoted

    Our readingThe global fall in births over the past two centuries is mostly explained by falling child mortality, and that part of the question is settled.

    Their wordsThe main cause of falling fertility globally over the last 200 years has been declining child mortality.

    ↗We Actually Know A Lot About Fertility Declinelymanstone.substack.com 2nd of 5 in this piece

  15. RK

    Razib Khan quoted

    Geneticist and writer on human population genetics

    Our readingThe population of modern humans that expanded out of Africa around 50,000-60,000 years ago numbered only a few thousand individuals at most.

    Their wordsAll the evidence, both ancient and modern, points to a tiny non-African ancestry population between 50 and 60,000 years ago, a few thousand individuals at most

    ↗The rise of the hopeful monsters: the true story of humanityrazibkhan.com 2nd of 2 in this piece

  17. LS

    Lyman Stone quoted

    Our readingThe theory that birth rates fall because home life has not caught up with women's opportunities at work is not supported by the data.

    Their wordswithin societies, more gender-egalitarian people almost never have more kids than less gender-egalitarian people, and in a panel model, changes in the mismatch rate have no relationship to fertility

    ↗We Actually Know A Lot About Fertility Declinelymanstone.substack.com 3rd of 5 in this piece

  19. LS

    Lyman Stone quoted

    Our readingRuling out every measurable cause because none explains all the variation, and putting an unmeasured one in their place, is not an explanation.

    Their wordsHe ruled out all the actual, measurable variables because they were an imperfect explanation, and instead offers a vague, diffuse variable, for which he has no measure, and which is not actually included in his model.

    ↗We Actually Know A Lot About Fertility Declinelymanstone.substack.com 4th of 5 in this piece

  21. LS

    Lyman Stone quoted

    Our readingA model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change.

    Their wordsThe demand for explanations of low fertility is entirely a demand for variables which will reduce these technical trends to near zero.

    ↗We Actually Know A Lot About Fertility Declinelymanstone.substack.com 5th of 5 in this piece

  22. 6 weeks earlier
  23. EO

    Emily Oster quoted

    Economist at Brown; writes ParentData and the books…

    Our readingToo many people begin trying to conceive without understanding how their cycle works, what can affect fertility, or when to seek help.

    Their wordsBut too many people arrive at the point of trying to conceive without a complete understanding of what it takes to actually get pregnant - how their cycle works, things that can impact fertility, when to seek help - and this is a problem.

    ↗What “Trimester Zero” Should Teach Us Insteadparentdata.org 1st of 3 in this piece

  24. 7 weeks earlier
  25. LS

    Lyman Stone quoted

    Our readingTurkey's sudden fertility collapse after 2013 was caused by a collapse in marriage, not by married couples choosing fewer children.

    Their wordsIt just is marriage. Turkish fertility started falling super fast after 2013 because Turkish marriage rates started falling super fast after 2013.

    ↗Falling Marriage Caused Turkey's Recent Fertility Declinelymanstone.substack.com

  26. 5 months earlier
  27. IF

    Irving Finkel quoted

    Assyriologist at the British Museum

    Our readingThe noise that made the gods send the flood is a euphemism for overpopulation, and a rather sophisticated Malthusian position.

    Their wordsBefore the flood, the gods had not created death. So I think the noise was a reflex of the fact there were just too many animals, too many people, and they had to do something about it.

    ↗Deciphering Secrets of Ancient Civilizations, Noah’s Ark, and Flood Myths | Lex Fridman Podcast #487youtube.com 23rd of 27 in this recording

  28. 8 weeks earlier
  29. LS

    Lyman Stone quoted

    Our readingEarning more does not make a woman less likely to have children, except at the very bottom of the income distribution.

    Their wordsthe shift from 50th to 99th percentile earnings has no negative effect on women’s fertility, and unearned income for women has a neutral-to-positive effect

    ↗Falling Fertility Is Not About Opportunity Costlymanstone.substack.com 1st of 5 in this piece

  31. LS

    Lyman Stone quoted

    Our readingRicher countries have fewer children than poor ones, but within a country a boom raises births and a bust lowers them.

    Their wordsAlthough the cross-sectional relationship between national income and fertility is negative, the longitudinal relationship between national income and fertility is positive: economic booms create baby booms, economic busts create baby busts.

    ↗Falling Fertility Is Not About Opportunity Costlymanstone.substack.com 2nd of 5 in this piece

  33. LS

    Lyman Stone quoted

    Our readingImmigration is irrelevant to the real problem low fertility creates, because that problem is people having fewer children than they wanted.

    immigration

    Their wordsimmigration is mathematically irrelevant to the central policy problem of low fertility

    ↗Falling Fertility Is Not About Opportunity Costlymanstone.substack.com 3rd of 5 in this piece

  35. LS

    Lyman Stone quoted

    Our readingThe harm done by low fertility is that people end up with fewer children than they wanted, not that a society runs short of workers.

    happiness

    Their wordsI don’t see population collapse or lack of workers as the central policy problem: the central policy problem is human happiness, human flourishing, and the freedom to live life well.

    ↗Falling Fertility Is Not About Opportunity Costlymanstone.substack.com 4th of 5 in this piece

  37. LS

    Lyman Stone quoted

    Our readingSomething is broken in how people pair up in the West, and that shortage of couples and marriages, not money, is why there are too few children.

    Their wordsThe empirical evidence strongly refutes the idea that rising opportunity costs of childbearing are driving low fertility. Declining marriage due to exogenous technology and economics shocks is tanking fertility irrespective of child direct or opportunity costs.

    ↗Falling Fertility Is Not About Opportunity Costlymanstone.substack.com 5th of 5 in this piece

  38. 2 months earlier
  39. KJ

    Keyu Jin quoted

    Economist specialising in China's economy

    Our readingSince 1990 ageing economies have grown richer rather than poorer, because ageing pushes a society to adopt automation faster.

    Their wordsIf you look at the most recent evidence on this issue, they found that post-1990, aging economies became richer. Not the other way around, which was true for the pre-1990 sample. And the reason is that these aging societies much more rapidly adopted new technologies, automation that actually helped the entire economy.

    ↗Keyu Jin: China's Economy, Tariffs, Trade, Trump, Communism & Capitalism | Lex Fridman Podcast #477youtube.com 15th of 16 in this recording

  40. 4 weeks earlier
  41. LS

    Lyman Stone quoted

    Our readingBirth rates can move in whatever direction a society chooses, whenever it chooses; there is no ratchet.

    Their wordsSurviving fertility rates can go in whatever direction society wants, whenever it wants.

    ↗There Is No Long Decline in Fertilitylymanstone.substack.com 1st of 5 in this piece

  43. LS

    Lyman Stone quoted

    Our readingThe total fertility rate is a culturally biased measure, because societies substitute between abortion, infanticide and contraception to reach the same family size.

    Their wordsThus, TFR as an indicator is cross-culturally biased by social preferences between infanticide and abortion, child neglect and abortion, etc.

    ↗There Is No Long Decline in Fertilitylymanstone.substack.com 3rd of 5 in this piece

  45. LS

    Lyman Stone quoted

    Our readingPeople aim at a number of surviving children rather than a number of births, so falling child mortality lets births fall without anyone wanting a smaller family.

    Their wordsthe key point is that as child mortality declines, live births can be allowed to decline without changing desired family size

    ↗There Is No Long Decline in Fertilitylymanstone.substack.com 4th of 5 in this piece

  47. LS

    Lyman Stone quoted

    Our readingThere is no long decline in human family size: once child survival is accounted for, the two-century downward trend disappears.

    Their wordsWhat you can see is that the “long decline” of TFR since the late-19th century is… an illusion! It isn’t real!

    ↗There Is No Long Decline in Fertilitylymanstone.substack.com 5th of 5 in this piece

  48. 3 days earlier
  49. DH

    David Heinemeier Hansson quoted

    Our readingSomething is broken in how people pair up in the West, and that shortage of couples and marriages, not money, is why there are too few children.

    Their wordsthere's something broken at the moment about how people pair up in the western world. And it's at the source of why we're not having enough children because there's not enough couples, there's not enough marriage.

    ↗DHH: Future of Programming, AI, Ruby on Rails, Productivity & Parenting | Lex Fridman Podcast #474youtube.com 34th of 36 in this recording

  50. 11 days earlier
  51. AE

    Alice Evans quoted

    Senior lecturer in international development at King's College London

    Our readingOnce women control their own fertility they have children only when they expect a reward for it, so the case for parenthood has to compete with everything else on offer.

    Their wordsOnce women are in control of their fertility, they only procreate if they expect rewards - whether that is personal fulfillment or social approval.

    ↗How do we Boost Birth Rates?ggd.world 1st of 6 in this piece

  53. AE

    Alice Evans quoted

    Our readingImproving entertainment technology raises the bar parenthood has to clear, because people have children when it looks more fun than the alternatives.

    Their wordsPeople are more likely to have kids if it’s FUN - relative to alternatives. As entertainment-technology improves, it generates a tantalising menu of ways to spend our lives.

    ↗How do we Boost Birth Rates?ggd.world 2nd of 6 in this piece

  55. AE

    Alice Evans quoted

    Our readingCulture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity.

    Their wordsMy qualitative research has taught me one thing: culture is malleable! So surely this issue is fixable!

    ↗How do we Boost Birth Rates?ggd.world 6th of 6 in this piece

  56. 4 months earlier
  57. AE

    Alice Evans quoted

    Our readingMarriage and birth rates are collapsing across the Middle East and North Africa even though religiosity there has not weakened.

    Their wordsThe Middle East, North Africa and Anatolia are witnessing a rapid decline in coupling and fertility. This should rock your priors.

    ↗Why are Marriage & Fertility Plummeting in MENA?ggd.world 1st of 4 in this piece

  59. AE

    Alice Evans quoted

    Our readingFalling birth rates ended cousin marriage in the Arab world by leaving too few cousins, pushing marriage onto individual choice.

    Their wordsBut over the past 50 years, there has been a massive decline in fertility. This entails fewer cousins of a suitable age.

    ↗Why are Marriage & Fertility Plummeting in MENA?ggd.world 4th of 4 in this piece