Calling the fall in birth rates a mystery is not humility but obscurantism: there is already a good causal account of it.

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• Any theory of the fall in birth rates must explain both the worldwide collapse and the differences between countries, and most theories explain only one. AEAlice Evans1 Nov 2024demographics
• Birth rates can move in whatever direction a society chooses, whenever it chooses; there is no ratchet. LSLyman Stone15 Jul 2025demographics
• Culture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity. AEAlice Evans1 Jul 2025demographics
• Demography is about to turn the rich world’s problem from finding a job for every person into finding a person for every job. LPLant Pritchett29 Nov 2023demographics
• Expecting AI or longer lives to arrive in time makes people skip having a plan for falling birth rates at all. RHRobin Hanson17 Jan 2024demographics

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