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← Calling the fall in birth rates a mystery is not humility but…
17 connected korrents · 16 moments on record from 1 Jun 2022 to 26 Aug 2026.
Everything filed under demographics
demographics
Everything filed under America
America
Everything filed under inflation
inflation
Everything filed under immigration
immigration
Everything filed under government
government Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Calling the fall in birth rates a mystery is not humility but obscurantism: there is already a good causal account of it. Calling the fall in birth rates a mystery is not humility but obscurantism: there is already a good causal account of it. Last stated 3 weeks ago
20 Aug 2026
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change. — tap to centre the map on it A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone… Last stated 3 weeks ago
20 Aug 2026
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A religion cannot revive itself by encouraging its members to have more children. — tap to centre the map on it A religion cannot revive itself by encouraging its members to have more children. Last stated 2 weeks ago
24 Aug 2026
RB
Ryan Burge — holds since 2026-08-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Any theory of the fall in birth rates must explain both the worldwide collapse and the differences between countries, and most theories explain only one. — tap to centre the map on it Any theory of the fall in birth rates must explain both the worldwide collapse and the differences between countries… Last stated 2 years ago
1 Nov 2024
AE
Alice Evans — holds since 2024-11-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Birth rates can move in whatever direction a society chooses, whenever it chooses; there is no ratchet. — tap to centre the map on it Birth rates can move in whatever direction a society chooses, whenever it chooses; there is no ratchet. Last stated a year ago
15 Jul 2025
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2025-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Culture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity. — tap to centre the map on it Culture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity. Last stated a year ago
1 Jul 2025
AE
Alice Evans — holds since 2025-07-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Demography is about to turn the rich world’s problem from finding a job for every person into finding a person for every job. — tap to centre the map on it Demography is about to turn the rich world’s problem from finding a job for every person into finding a person for… Last stated 3 years ago
29 Nov 2023
LP
Lant Pritchett — holds since 2023-11-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Earning more does not make a woman less likely to have children, except at the very bottom of the income distribution. — tap to centre the map on it Earning more does not make a woman less likely to have children, except at the very bottom of the income… Last stated 11 months ago
14 Oct 2025
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2025-10-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Expecting AI or longer lives to arrive in time makes people skip having a plan for falling birth rates at all. — tap to centre the map on it Expecting AI or longer lives to arrive in time makes people skip having a plan for falling birth rates at all. Last stated 3 years ago
17 Jan 2024
RH
Robin Hanson — holds since 2024-01-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate. — tap to centre the map on it A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who… Last stated 2 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: America treats its inability to build and to admit skilled migrants as mysteries to be endured rather than problems to be solved. — tap to centre the map on it America treats its inability to build and to admit skilled migrants as mysteries to be endured rather than problems… Last stated 3 years ago
23 Jan 2024
DW
Dan Wang — holds since 2024-01-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Anti-immigration parties gain ground by generating fear, not by winning the argument about what immigration does. — tap to centre the map on it Anti-immigration parties gain ground by generating fear, not by winning the argument about what immigration does. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Nov 2023
LP
Lant Pritchett — holds since 2023-11-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. — tap to centre the map on it A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own… Last stated 5 months ago
1 Apr 2026
TP
Thuan Pham — holds since 2026-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. — tap to centre the map on it Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. Last stated 4 years ago
25 Jul 2022
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2022-07-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. — tap to centre the map on it Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation… Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A government taking a stake in its chipmaker is ordinary infrastructure policy — Taiwan, Japan and Singapore all did it. — tap to centre the map on it A government taking a stake in its chipmaker is ordinary infrastructure policy — Taiwan, Japan and Singapore… Last stated 3 months ago
18 Jun 2026
LT
Lip-Bu Tan — holds since 2026-06-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: American shipyards are unproductive rather than expensive: their workers are paid about what Korean and Japanese shipyard workers are paid. — tap to centre the map on it American shipyards are unproductive rather than expensive: their workers are paid about what Korean and… Last stated 3 years ago
3 Jan 2024
AV
Austin Vernon — holds since 2024-01-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Commercial shipbuilding keeps moving to whichever country has the cheapest labour, and America has never been that country. — tap to centre the map on it Commercial shipbuilding keeps moving to whichever country has the cheapest labour, and America has never been that… Last stated 2 years ago
5 Sept 2024
BP
Brian Potter — holds since 2024-09-05 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Calling the fall in birth rates a mystery is not humility but obscurantism: there is already a good causal account of it.
Holds LS Lyman StoneRead this korrent →
A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change.
Holds LS Lyman Stone
A religion cannot revive itself by encouraging its members to have more children.
Holds RB Ryan Burge
Any theory of the fall in birth rates must explain both the worldwide collapse and the differences between countries, and most theories explain only one.
Holds AE Alice Evans
Birth rates can move in whatever direction a society chooses, whenever it chooses; there is no ratchet.
Holds LS Lyman Stone
Culture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity.
Holds AE Alice Evans
Demography is about to turn the rich world’s problem from finding a job for every person into finding a person for every job.
Holds LP Lant Pritchett
Earning more does not make a woman less likely to have children, except at the very bottom of the income distribution.
Holds LS Lyman Stone
Expecting AI or longer lives to arrive in time makes people skip having a plan for falling birth rates at all.
Holds RH Robin Hanson
A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate.
Holds
America treats its inability to build and to admit skilled migrants as mysteries to be endured rather than problems to be solved.
Holds DW Dan Wang
Anti-immigration parties gain ground by generating fear, not by winning the argument about what immigration does.
Holds LP Lant Pritchett
A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost.
Holds TP Thuan Pham
Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022.
Holds
Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total.
Holds
A government taking a stake in its chipmaker is ordinary infrastructure policy — Taiwan, Japan and Singapore all did it.
Holds LT Lip-Bu Tan
American shipyards are unproductive rather than expensive: their workers are paid about what Korean and Japanese shipyard workers are paid.
Holds AV Austin Vernon
Commercial shipbuilding keeps moving to whichever country has the cheapest labour, and America has never been that country.
Holds BP Brian Potter