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← Demographics won't start to hurt China until the 2040s at the earliest.
17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 29 Nov 2023 to 6 Oct 2026. Nearly all of them are about demographics .
Everything filed under China
China
Everything filed under religion
religion
Everything filed under humility
humility Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Demographics won't start to hurt China until the 2040s at the earliest. Demographics won't start to hurt China until the 2040s at the earliest. Last stated yesterday
6 Oct 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-10-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change. — tap to centre the map on it A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change. Last stated 2 months ago
20 Aug 2026
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A religion cannot revive itself by encouraging its members to have more children. — tap to centre the map on it A religion cannot revive itself by encouraging its members to have more children. Last stated a month ago
24 Aug 2026
RB
Ryan Burge — holds since 2026-08-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Any theory of the fall in birth rates must explain both the worldwide collapse and the differences between countries, and most theories explain only one. — tap to centre the map on it Any theory of the fall in birth rates must explain both the worldwide collapse and the differences between countries, and most theories explain only one. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Nov 2024
AE
Alice Evans — holds since 2024-11-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Birth rates can move in whatever direction a society chooses, whenever it chooses; there is no ratchet. — tap to centre the map on it Birth rates can move in whatever direction a society chooses, whenever it chooses; there is no ratchet. Last stated a year ago
15 Jul 2025
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2025-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Calling the fall in birth rates a mystery is not humility but obscurantism: there is already a good causal account of it. — tap to centre the map on it Calling the fall in birth rates a mystery is not humility but obscurantism: there is already a good causal account of it. Last stated 2 months ago
20 Aug 2026
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Culture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity. — tap to centre the map on it Culture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity. Last stated a year ago
1 Jul 2025
AE
Alice Evans — holds since 2025-07-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Demography is about to turn the rich world’s problem from finding a job for every person into finding a person for every job. — tap to centre the map on it Demography is about to turn the rich world’s problem from finding a job for every person into finding a person for every job. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Nov 2023
LP
Lant Pritchett — holds since 2023-11-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Earning more does not make a woman less likely to have children, except at the very bottom of the income distribution. — tap to centre the map on it Earning more does not make a woman less likely to have children, except at the very bottom of the income distribution. Last stated 12 months ago
14 Oct 2025
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2025-10-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. — tap to centre the map on it A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. Last stated 2 months ago
18 Aug 2026
CH
Casey Handmer — holds since 2025-10-31 — tap for who they are
EB
Eric Berger — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. — tap to centre the map on it A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. Last stated 4 months ago
9 Jun 2026
SP
Sarah Paine — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. Last stated a year ago
15 May 2025
HR
Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2025-05-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A diesel export ban would probably do little for U.S. affordability, would deter business investment, and would weaken America's hand against China on energy. — tap to centre the map on it A diesel export ban would probably do little for U.S. affordability, would deter business investment, and would weaken America's hand against China on energy. Last stated 2 weeks ago
24 Sept 2026
PK
Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-09-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A large, sustained AI capability lead by either the US or China could shift the global balance of power between them. — tap to centre the map on it A large, sustained AI capability lead by either the US or China could shift the global balance of power between them. Last stated a month ago
5 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A superpower's deferential posture toward rival great powers can alienate its allies while yielding no strategic payoff in return. — tap to centre the map on it A superpower's deferential posture toward rival great powers can alienate its allies while yielding no strategic payoff in return. Last stated a month ago
2 Sept 2026
DD
Daniel W. Drezner — holds since 2026-09-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Persistent US trade deficits are the mirror image of trade partners' capital account surpluses caused by beggar-thy-neighbor industrial policy — tap to centre the map on it Persistent US trade deficits are the mirror image of trade partners' capital account surpluses caused by beggar-thy-neighbor industrial policy Last stated 2 years ago
7 Apr 2025
SH
Samuel Hammond — holds since 2025-04-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Rebuilding American manufacturing is a decades-long educational and cultural project, not something tariffs can do. — tap to centre the map on it Rebuilding American manufacturing is a decades-long educational and cultural project, not something tariffs can do. Last stated 9 months ago
25 Dec 2025
MH
Molson Hart — holds since 2025-12-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Tariffs are beside the point in the energy race with China; what is actually costing America is environmental regulation, and Texas is out-deploying California ten to one because of it. — tap to centre the map on it Tariffs are beside the point in the energy race with China; what is actually costing America is environmental regulation, and Texas is out-deploying California ten to one because of it. Last stated a year ago
15 Aug 2025
CH
Casey Handmer — holds since 2025-08-15 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Demographics won't start to hurt China until the 2040s at the earliest.
Holds Read this korrent →
A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change.
Holds
A religion cannot revive itself by encouraging its members to have more children.
Holds
Any theory of the fall in birth rates must explain both the worldwide collapse and the differences between countries, and most theories explain only one.
Holds
Birth rates can move in whatever direction a society chooses, whenever it chooses; there is no ratchet.
Holds
Calling the fall in birth rates a mystery is not humility but obscurantism: there is already a good causal account of it.
Holds
Culture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity.
Holds
Demography is about to turn the rich world’s problem from finding a job for every person into finding a person for every job.
Holds
Earning more does not make a woman less likely to have children, except at the very bottom of the income distribution.
Holds
A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world.
Holds
A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for.
Holds
A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it.
Holds
A diesel export ban would probably do little for U.S. affordability, would deter business investment, and would weaken America's hand against China on energy.
Holds
A large, sustained AI capability lead by either the US or China could shift the global balance of power between them.
Holds
A superpower's deferential posture toward rival great powers can alienate its allies while yielding no strategic payoff in return.
Holds
Persistent US trade deficits are the mirror image of trade partners' capital account surpluses caused by beggar-thy-neighbor industrial policy
Holds
Rebuilding American manufacturing is a decades-long educational and cultural project, not something tariffs can do.
Holds
Tariffs are beside the point in the energy race with China; what is actually costing America is environmental regulation, and Texas is out-deploying California ten to one because of it.
Holds