A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change.

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Our reading — they may agree, disagree or merely touch the same thing. Closest first: a shared subject counts for most, then how near the wording is.

• The theory that birth rates fall because home life has not caught up with women's opportunities at work is not supported by the data. LSLyman Stone20 Aug 2026similar wording
• Calling the fall in birth rates a mystery is not humility but obscurantism: there is already a good causal account of it. LSLyman Stone20 Aug 2026similar wording
• Falling fertility is transmitted by the values that mass media spread, not by how rich any individual is. RHRobin Hanson11 Sept 2021similar wording
• Expecting AI or longer lives to arrive in time makes people skip having a plan for falling birth rates at all. RHRobin Hanson17 Jan 2024similar wording
• The harm done by low fertility is that people end up with fewer children than they wanted, not that a society runs short of workers. LSLyman Stone14 Oct 2025similar wording

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