Kevin Erdmann
American housing economist; writes the Erdmann Housing Tracker newsletter on US housing supply, rents and prices. Author of Shut Out (2019) and Building from the Ground Up (2023), which argue a housing shortage caused the 2008 crisis; former visiting fellow at the Mercatus Center.
Kevin Erdmann did not write this page.
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Their wordsI argue that the belief in quality and low cost are actually very inherently at odds by their very nature, and that affordability has to come with legal protections that disallow local governments from regulating in a way that mandates quality beyond what is necessary for basic safety and health.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsBut, the affordability problem is entirely a land value problem. We can't fix it by making worse structures.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsPotato neighborhoods are universally banned. Neighborhoods don't filter into being potato neighborhoods. They must be purpose-built.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 13 days earlier
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Their wordsI would add that downward filtering is a prerequisite to any affordability strategy, and it can't really happen without adequate market rate housing.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThe poorest homes in each city literally cannot become affordable unless land all across the market loses the same scarcity premium.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Our reading
Market-rate housing of any type is the most effective way to eliminate land scarcity premiums.
Their wordsThe most effective way to get rid of the scarcity premium is market rate housing of any type that developers want to build.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 1 day earlier
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Their wordsBasically, when you build more high tier homes, rents decline in low tier homes.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThere was a uniform benchmarking to crisis, and the hallucination about housing oversupply was the master key that opened the door for it.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThe collapse in finance and development markets that now make Strong Towns' goals hard to achieve wouldn't have happened.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 13 days earlier
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Their wordsAnd, in fact, zero population growth would probably be associated with homebuilding rates in the US near the current level, because our building since 2008 has been so lacking.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsIn the coming decades, the depopulation of rural areas, which is already apparent in some regions, is going to spread and deepen.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsMillions of homes in those areas will become uninhabitable while millions of new homes are required in cities.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 4 days earlier
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Our reading
The near doubling of the American housing price/income ratio is caused by a supply shortage.
Their wordsThe short version is that the near doubling (on average) of the price/income ratio of American housing is from a supply shortage. And, in fact, that's the only feasible cause of such a persistent price anomaly.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsFamilies tend to have relatively unitary demand elasticity for trading up. (They will scale housing expenses with their income.) But, they tend to have very inelastic demand for trading down.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsI think growth will rise back up above 2%, permanently in Arizona and Florida, but under current mortgage standards, it will have to involve growth in rental housing.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 2 days earlier
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Our reading
Investors have played a calming role by softening price volatility resulting from homeowner demand.
Their wordsWe find that investors have played a calming role across the board, softening the price volatility that has resulted from the whipsawing demand from homeowners.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsIf annual new single-family home completions rise from 1 million to 1.5 million over the next 5 or 10 years, it will likely be related to an extra half million renter households each year.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsIn terms of home prices, prices always and everywhere tend to moderate when investor (renter) market share rises and inflate when investor (renter) market share declines.
↗Erdmann Housing Trackerkevinerdmann.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece