The froth visible in US markets in 2025 was the 2021 mania returning, and reason enough to take risk off.

Drawn from what Nick Maggiulli said, then moved away from

What these subjects mean

stock market Equities as a whole: what returns have been, whether prices carry information, and what attention does to them.

investing Putting money into markets on purpose: what a portfolio is for, whether active management earns its cost, and what money is actually a means to.

In the views oninvestingunder our view: A portfolio is something to be held through a cycle, not predicted

What Nick Maggiulli actually said

Nick Maggiulli 25 Aug 2026 · held 12 months Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data…

No longer holdsSince then U.S. stocks are up 16% (total return) and my bearish prediction turned out to be misguided.

Their words nowMy issue wasn’t that the parallels didn’t exist—they did. My issue was that much of the speculative stuff of 2021 ended up failing (NFTs, DeFi, etc.) while much of the speculative stuff of 2025 (AI) seems to be succeeding.

Where this was said

↗Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com

25 Aug 2026

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