5 korrents from this piece · 1 of them a turn
Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.
No longer holdsSince then U.S. stocks are up 16% (total return) and my bearish prediction turned out to be misguided.
Their words nowMy issue wasn’t that the parallels didn’t exist—they did. My issue was that much of the speculative stuff of 2021 ended up failing (NFTs, DeFi, etc.) while much of the speculative stuff of 2025 (AI) seems to be succeeding.
Their wordsTherefore, the only correct interpretation of the P/S ratio over the last decade is that it doesn’t signal what it used to.
Their wordsthe base rate for U.S. stock performance (in aggregate) over one year is that they go up
Their wordsit’s better to have a portfolio that can handle stocks whether they are overvalued or not
Our reading
A portfolio you cannot hold through an ordinary market cycle is not a portfolio but a bet.
Their wordsBecause if you can’t handle standard market cycles, then you don’t have a portfolio, you have a bet.