Cycles are hard to predict because forecasters extrapolate in straight lines and cannot see the forces undoing the present.

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• The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean. DKDaniel Kahneman12 Oct 2019
• When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. ABAndrew Batson13 Aug 2025
• Ask "how hard can it be?" rather than forecasting the difficulty, because the work really is harder than you think and the suffering is better taken a day at a time. JHJensen Huang26 Jul 2026
• Market bubbles and crashes are inevitable but impossible to predict in advance. JCJL Collins30 Jul 2026
• Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions. NBNat Bullard9 Dec 2024

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