Andrew Batson
China economy researcher based in Beijing who writes on his personal blog about Chinese political economy, history, books and music.
Everything they publish, on ppll ↗
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Their wordsMy view is that an appreciation of China's REER is very much to be desired, but the real (haha) way to get there is through higher inflation domestically, and that means different macro policies.
↗Real talk about the exchange rateandrewbatson.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Our reading
Complaining about China's trade surpluses and excess capacity has not worked and will not work.
Their wordsI think complaining about trade surpluses and excess capacity has not worked, and is not going to work.
↗Real talk about the exchange rateandrewbatson.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsPolicy decisions have condemned a generation of Chinese youth to widespread under- and un-employment.
↗Real talk about the exchange rateandrewbatson.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 8 months earlier
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Their wordsBoth of these trends are a consequence of economic success, in terms of higher output and productivity: at least some of what is decried as "de-industrialization" is good actually. It is also good for China's planners to recognize that reality and not distort the economy in pursuit of an impossible outcome.
↗China bows to de-industrializationandrewbatson.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsThere's even a case to be made that those policies actually depressed the manufacturing share of GDP: by boosting output and capacity above where they would have been otherwise, subsidies probably contributed to the sustained decline in prices for China's manufactured goods over the past few years, weighing on their share of nominal output.
↗China bows to de-industrializationandrewbatson.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
- 5 weeks earlier
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Their wordsOne possible reading of the last century or so of political history in China, therefore, is that governments who provide a meritocratic channel for social advancement have legitimacy and popular support, and governments who do not provide one, do not.
↗Exams are everything in Chinaandrewbatson.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Our reading
Centralized, hierarchical competitive tournaments are effective at creating strong incentives.
Their wordsAlso, centralized hierarchical tournaments seem to be good at creating very effective incentives.
↗Exams are everything in Chinaandrewbatson.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
- 7 days earlier
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Our reading
For listeners, shorter pieces are usually more enjoyable than long, unedited improvisations
Their wordsImprovisers can be prolix and reluctant to edit themselves, but for listeners shorter is usually better.
↗First explorations in Indian classical musicandrewbatson.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsmodern instruments generally have more reliable tone, wider range, and better projection than traditional instruments-they are better as instruments.
↗First explorations in Indian classical musicandrewbatson.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
- 6 weeks earlier
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Their wordsOn this measure, state capacity at the local level looks much stronger in China than in India, which helps explain some of the long-running economic differences between them.
↗Historical trajectories of local government in India and Chinaandrewbatson.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsChina does much better in basic service delivery-and its local governments have also played a very obvious and important in driving growth, thanks to the competition and experimentation among local officials driven to develop their jurisdictions.
↗Historical trajectories of local government in India and Chinaandrewbatson.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
- 2 weeks earlier
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Our reading
China faces a genuine, sizable output gap right now, not just a lower structural growth ceiling.
Their wordsI'm with the markets here: I believe in the output gap. The structural slowdown of the Chinese economy is an incredibly consensus view, and I believe in it too.
↗Who believes in China’s output gap?andrewbatson.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsBut for a variety of reasons I think it makes more sense to stay agnostic about forecasts of potential GDP growth, and focus more on the signals the current performance of the economy is sending.
↗Who believes in China’s output gap?andrewbatson.com 2nd of 2 in this piece