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Real talk about the exchange rate

Andrew Batson · 1 Aug 2026

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  1. My view is that an appreciation of China's REER is very much to be desired, but the real (haha) way to get there is through higher inflation domestically, and that means different macro policies.
  2. I think complaining about trade surpluses and excess capacity has not worked, and is not going to work.
  3. Policy decisions have condemned a generation of Chinese youth to widespread under- and un-employment.

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