2022 letter

Dan Wang · 4 Mar 2023

A change of mind in this piece

The 2021 crackdown was a bounded correction, and it would take more than a regulatory campaign to defeat China's economic dynamism.

No longer holdsWhat I did not sufficiently appreciate is that a state that would so casually decapitate a sector like online tutoring would also have the will to visit catastrophe upon whole cities.

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7 korrents from this piece · 1 of them a turn ↓

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Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

Our reading
The Chinese state today is an autocratic regime occasionally capable of economic pragmatism, not a technocratic regime that occasionally lapses into Marxism.

Their wordsAnd on balance I believe we should think of the Chinese state today as an autocratic regime that is occasionally capable of economic pragmatism rather than a technocratic regime that slips occasionally into Marxist faults.
Our reading
The Chinese state's famous capability is largely spent putting out fires it started itself.

Their wordsFirst, it increasingly resembles a crew of firefighters who bring extraordinary skill to dousing fires that they themselves ignited.
Our reading
China's problem is not too little state capacity but too much of it.

Their wordsSecond, China’s problem is usually not too little state capacity, but too much.
Our reading
Partnering with Russia was a strategic mistake for Beijing, because it is the United States and Europe that hold the markets and the technology.

Their wordsBeijing decided to partner with Russia, an imperial aggressor, when it is the US and Europe that have markets and technology.
Our reading
China's technological competitiveness is grounded in manufacturing capability rather than in scientific research.

Their wordsWhereas the US has a track record of doing great science, China’s technology competitiveness is grounded in manufacturing capabilities.
Our reading
Doing the science first does not win the industry: America laid the scientific groundwork for solar and Chinese firms ended up making the cells.

Their wordsConsider the solar industry, for which the US laid the scientific groundwork, only for Chinese firms to make all the photovoltaic cells.
Our reading
The 2021 crackdown was a bounded correction, and it would take more than a regulatory campaign to defeat China's economic dynamism.

No longer holdsWhat I did not sufficiently appreciate is that a state that would so casually decapitate a sector like online tutoring would also have the will to visit catastrophe upon whole cities.

Their words nowI perceive a fading sense of enthusiasm among businesspeople and youths.

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