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← Cycles are hard to predict because forecasters extrapolate in straight…
11 connected korrents · 12 moments on record from 1 Jun 2022 to 26 Aug 2026.
Everything filed under demographics
demographics
Everything filed under immigration
immigration
Everything filed under inflation
inflation Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Cycles are hard to predict because forecasters extrapolate in straight lines and cannot see the forces undoing the present. Cycles are hard to predict because forecasters extrapolate in straight lines and cannot see the forces undoing the present. Last stated 8 months ago
6 Jan 2026
MH
Morgan Housel — holds since 2026-01-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Ask "how hard can it be?" rather than forecasting the difficulty, because the work really is harder than you think and the suffering is better taken a day at a time. — tap to centre the map on it Ask "how hard can it be?" rather than forecasting the difficulty, because the work really is harder than you think and the suffering is better taken a day at a time. Last stated a month ago
26 Jul 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-07-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change. — tap to centre the map on it A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change. Last stated 3 weeks ago
20 Aug 2026
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A religion cannot revive itself by encouraging its members to have more children. — tap to centre the map on it A religion cannot revive itself by encouraging its members to have more children. Last stated 2 weeks ago
24 Aug 2026
RB
Ryan Burge — holds since 2026-08-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Any theory of the fall in birth rates must explain both the worldwide collapse and the differences between countries, and most theories explain only one. — tap to centre the map on it Any theory of the fall in birth rates must explain both the worldwide collapse and the differences between countries, and most theories explain only one. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Nov 2024
AE
Alice Evans — holds since 2024-11-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Birth rates can move in whatever direction a society chooses, whenever it chooses; there is no ratchet. — tap to centre the map on it Birth rates can move in whatever direction a society chooses, whenever it chooses; there is no ratchet. Last stated a year ago
15 Jul 2025
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2025-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate. — tap to centre the map on it A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate. Last stated 2 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: America treats its inability to build and to admit skilled migrants as mysteries to be endured rather than problems to be solved. — tap to centre the map on it America treats its inability to build and to admit skilled migrants as mysteries to be endured rather than problems to be solved. Last stated 3 years ago
23 Jan 2024
DW
Dan Wang — holds since 2024-01-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Anti-immigration parties gain ground by generating fear, not by winning the argument about what immigration does. — tap to centre the map on it Anti-immigration parties gain ground by generating fear, not by winning the argument about what immigration does. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Nov 2023
LP
Lant Pritchett — holds since 2023-11-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. — tap to centre the map on it A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. Last stated 5 months ago
1 Apr 2026
TP
Thuan Pham — holds since 2026-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. — tap to centre the map on it Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. Last stated 4 years ago
25 Jul 2022
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2022-07-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. — tap to centre the map on it Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are