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← Cycles are hard to predict because forecasters extrapolate in straight…
15 connected korrents · 14 moments from 12 Oct 2019 to 17 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under behavioural science
behavioural science
Everything filed under fiscal policy
fiscal policy
Everything filed under government
government
Everything filed under ambition
ambition
Everything filed under market efficiency
market efficiency
Everything filed under demographics
demographics
Everything filed under public debt
public debt Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Cycles are hard to predict because forecasters extrapolate in straight lines and cannot see the forces undoing the present. Cycles are hard to predict because forecasters extrapolate in straight lines and cannot see the forces undoing the present. Last stated 10 months ago
6 Jan 2026
MH
Morgan Housel — holds since 2026-01-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean. — tap to centre the map on it The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean. Last stated 7 years ago
12 Oct 2019
DK
Daniel Kahneman — holds since 2019-10-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. — tap to centre the map on it When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. Last stated a year ago
13 Aug 2025
AB
Andrew Batson — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Ask "how hard can it be?" rather than forecasting the difficulty, because the work really is harder than you think and the suffering is better taken a day at a time. — tap to centre the map on it Ask "how hard can it be?" rather than forecasting the difficulty, because the work really is harder than you think and the suffering is better taken a day at a time. Last stated 3 months ago
26 Jul 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-07-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Market bubbles and crashes are inevitable but impossible to predict in advance. — tap to centre the map on it Market bubbles and crashes are inevitable but impossible to predict in advance. Last stated 3 months ago
30 Jul 2026
JC
JL Collins — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions. — tap to centre the map on it Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions. Last stated 2 years ago
9 Dec 2024
NB
Nat Bullard — holds since 2024-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change. — tap to centre the map on it A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change. Last stated 2 months ago
20 Aug 2026
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A belief system combining cosmic stakes, privileged knowledge, personal vocation and an imperative to act can license extraordinary behavior when it conflicts with ordinary constraints. — tap to centre the map on it A belief system combining cosmic stakes, privileged knowledge, personal vocation and an imperative to act can license extraordinary behavior when it conflicts with ordinary constraints. Last stated a month ago
17 Sept 2026
VR
Venkatesh Rao — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. — tap to centre the map on it A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. Last stated 9 months ago
25 Jan 2026
JC
Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck. — tap to centre the map on it A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens. — tap to centre the map on it A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens. Last stated 2 years ago
20 Jan 2025
DT
Donald Trump — holds since 2025-01-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A fiscal expansion when the economy is already at potential output prompts monetary tightening that dampens or eliminates its effect on output. — tap to centre the map on it A fiscal expansion when the economy is already at potential output prompts monetary tightening that dampens or eliminates its effect on output. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A thriving society needs both the left's redistributing of resources and the right's producing and conserving of them — tap to centre the map on it A thriving society needs both the left's redistributing of resources and the right's producing and conserving of them Last stated 3 years ago
11 May 2023
RB
Roy Baumeister — holds since 2023-05-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement. — tap to centre the map on it A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement. Last stated 2 months ago
21 Aug 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending. — tap to centre the map on it A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending. Last stated 2 months ago
21 Aug 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are