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← The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is…
17 connected korrents · 16 moments from 12 Oct 2019 to 17 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under behavioural science
behavioural science
Everything filed under fiscal policy
fiscal policy
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under epidemiology
epidemiology
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean. The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean. Last stated 7 years ago
12 Oct 2019
DK
Daniel Kahneman — holds since 2019-10-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Predictions should be less extreme than the information they rest on, an idea that is deeply counterintuitive — tap to centre the map on it Predictions should be less extreme than the information they rest on, an idea that is deeply counterintuitive
DK
Daniel Kahneman — holds since c. 2002–2003 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Algorithms beat people at judgment, which is not intuitive but is true, so they are the first recommended remedy for noise. — tap to centre the map on it Algorithms beat people at judgment, which is not intuitive but is true, so they are the first recommended remedy for noise. Last stated 7 years ago
12 Oct 2019
DK
Daniel Kahneman — holds since 2019-10-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions. — tap to centre the map on it Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions. Last stated 2 years ago
9 Dec 2024
NB
Nat Bullard — holds since 2024-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. — tap to centre the map on it When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. Last stated a year ago
13 Aug 2025
AB
Andrew Batson — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI helps exactly as far as the work is predictable and well documented, and stops helping on anything cutting edge. — tap to centre the map on it AI helps exactly as far as the work is predictable and well documented, and stops helping on anything cutting edge. Last stated 2 years ago
22 Mar 2025
TH
ThePrimeagen — holds since 2025-03-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. — tap to centre the map on it The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. Last stated 4 years ago
30 Jun 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful. — tap to centre the map on it Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful. Last stated 3 months ago
13 Jul 2026
ZH
Zeke Hausfather — holds since 2026-07-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. — tap to centre the map on it Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A belief system combining cosmic stakes, privileged knowledge, personal vocation and an imperative to act can license extraordinary behavior when it conflicts with ordinary constraints. — tap to centre the map on it A belief system combining cosmic stakes, privileged knowledge, personal vocation and an imperative to act can license extraordinary behavior when it conflicts with ordinary constraints. Last stated 3 weeks ago
17 Sept 2026
VR
Venkatesh Rao — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. — tap to centre the map on it A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. Last stated 8 months ago
25 Jan 2026
JC
Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck. — tap to centre the map on it A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Blaming and shaming people only makes them defensive, dig in their heels, or tune out, rather than change their minds. — tap to centre the map on it Blaming and shaming people only makes them defensive, dig in their heels, or tune out, rather than change their minds. Last stated 4 months ago
9 Jun 2026
AG
Adam Grant — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Imaginary social trends can spuriously shape people's real beliefs and behaviors. — tap to centre the map on it Imaginary social trends can spuriously shape people's real beliefs and behaviors. Last stated 5 years ago
7 Mar 2022
AM
Adam Mastroianni — holds since 2022-03-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Public scrutiny of a new technology tends to jump only after a deadly incident, otherwise rising slowly over decades — tap to centre the map on it Public scrutiny of a new technology tends to jump only after a deadly incident, otherwise rising slowly over decades Last stated 9 months ago
15 Jan 2026
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2026-01-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A product that speeds up turning intention into reality increases appetite for continued use, then charges for that continuation. — tap to centre the map on it A product that speeds up turning intention into reality increases appetite for continued use, then charges for that continuation. Last stated 2 months ago
19 Aug 2026
KR
Kenneth Reitz — holds since 2026-08-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A small amount of friction is enough to reshape a behavior, because most wants are not strong enough to survive a minor inconvenience. — tap to centre the map on it A small amount of friction is enough to reshape a behavior, because most wants are not strong enough to survive a minor inconvenience. Last stated 9 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JC
James Clear — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A society cannot remove the desire for status, only change what earns it. — tap to centre the map on it A society cannot remove the desire for status, only change what earns it. Last stated a month ago
6 Sept 2026
RH
Rob Henderson — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
At the centre
The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean.
Holds Read this korrent →
Predictions should be less extreme than the information they rest on, an idea that is deeply counterintuitive
Last stated c. 2002–2003
Holds
Algorithms beat people at judgment, which is not intuitive but is true, so they are the first recommended remedy for noise.
Holds
Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions.
Holds
When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth.
Holds
AI helps exactly as far as the work is predictable and well documented, and stops helping on anything cutting edge.
Holds
The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously.
Holds
Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful.
Holds
Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them.
Holds
A belief system combining cosmic stakes, privileged knowledge, personal vocation and an imperative to act can license extraordinary behavior when it conflicts with ordinary constraints.
Holds
A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally.
Holds
A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck.
Holds
Blaming and shaming people only makes them defensive, dig in their heels, or tune out, rather than change their minds.
Holds
Imaginary social trends can spuriously shape people's real beliefs and behaviors.
Holds
Public scrutiny of a new technology tends to jump only after a deadly incident, otherwise rising slowly over decades
Holds
A product that speeds up turning intention into reality increases appetite for continued use, then charges for that continuation.
Holds
A small amount of friction is enough to reshape a behavior, because most wants are not strong enough to survive a minor inconvenience.
Holds
A society cannot remove the desire for status, only change what earns it.
Holds