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← Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world…
17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 6 Nov 2015 to 26 Oct 2026.
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behavioural science Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions. Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions. Last stated 2 years ago
9 Dec 2024
NB
Nat Bullard — holds since 2024-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. — tap to centre the map on it When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. Last stated a year ago
13 Aug 2025
AB
Andrew Batson — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful. — tap to centre the map on it Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful. Last stated 4 months ago
13 Jul 2026
ZH
Zeke Hausfather — holds since 2026-07-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean. — tap to centre the map on it The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean. Last stated 7 years ago
12 Oct 2019
DK
Daniel Kahneman — holds since 2019-10-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Publishing industry claims to predict how trends will play out, but such predictions are unreliable. — tap to centre the map on it Publishing industry claims to predict how trends will play out, but such predictions are unreliable. Last stated 2 months ago
15 Sept 2026
LM
Lincoln Michel — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. — tap to centre the map on it The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. Last stated 4 years ago
30 Jun 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Economic growth from AI waits on change management, not on model capability: the work artifact and the workflow have to change first. — tap to centre the map on it Economic growth from AI waits on change management, not on model capability: the work artifact and the workflow have to change first. Last stated 12 months ago
12 Nov 2025
SN
Satya Nadella — holds since 2025-11-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Conventional wisdom lags behind reality, so someone who looks at the present directly can act on information others have not yet been given permission to act on. — tap to centre the map on it Conventional wisdom lags behind reality, so someone who looks at the present directly can act on information others have not yet been given permission to act on. Last stated 11 years ago
6 Nov 2015
TU
Tim Urban — holds since 2015-11-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Whether AI capability progress has slowed down cannot be settled, since reasonable observers can interpret the same evidence differently. — tap to centre the map on it Whether AI capability progress has slowed down cannot be settled, since reasonable observers can interpret the same evidence differently. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Dec 2024
AN
Arvind Narayanan — holds since 2024-12-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: ‘Chainsaw’ economics as tried by Truss, Musk and Milei did damage without achieving its goals. — tap to centre the map on it ‘Chainsaw’ economics as tried by Truss, Musk and Milei did damage without achieving its goals. Last stated a week ago
26 Oct 2026
WD
William Davies — holds since 2026-10-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens. — tap to centre the map on it A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens. Last stated 2 years ago
20 Jan 2025
DT
Donald Trump — holds since 2025-01-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A crowd will always accept an indirect tax, however high, because it passes unperceived — tap to centre the map on it A crowd will always accept an indirect tax, however high, because it passes unperceived
GB
Gustave Le Bon — holds since c. 1895 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement. — tap to centre the map on it A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement. Last stated 2 months ago
21 Aug 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending. — tap to centre the map on it A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending. Last stated 2 months ago
21 Aug 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A contest between five paid firms is not the way to get good creative work. — tap to centre the map on it A contest between five paid firms is not the way to get good creative work. Last stated 3 months ago
14 Aug 2026
SK
Susan Kare — holds since 2026-08-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A culture that is uncompromising but also kind and supportive is the most fertile ground for creativity. — tap to centre the map on it A culture that is uncompromising but also kind and supportive is the most fertile ground for creativity. Last stated 7 months ago
12 Apr 2026
ES
Evan Spiegel — holds since 2026-04-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A feeling of responsibility is probably the greatest inhibitor of creativity; great ideas came from people not paid to have them — tap to centre the map on it A feeling of responsibility is probably the greatest inhibitor of creativity; great ideas came from people not paid to have them
IA
Isaac Asimov — holds since c. 1959 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions.
Holds Read this korrent →
When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth.
Holds
Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful.
Holds
The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean.
Holds
Publishing industry claims to predict how trends will play out, but such predictions are unreliable.
Holds
The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously.
Holds
Economic growth from AI waits on change management, not on model capability: the work artifact and the workflow have to change first.
Holds
Conventional wisdom lags behind reality, so someone who looks at the present directly can act on information others have not yet been given permission to act on.
Holds
Whether AI capability progress has slowed down cannot be settled, since reasonable observers can interpret the same evidence differently.
Holds
‘Chainsaw’ economics as tried by Truss, Musk and Milei did damage without achieving its goals.
Holds
A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens.
Holds
A crowd will always accept an indirect tax, however high, because it passes unperceived
Last stated c. 1895
Holds
A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate.
Holds
A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement.
Holds
A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending.
Holds
A contest between five paid firms is not the way to get good creative work.
Holds
A culture that is uncompromising but also kind and supportive is the most fertile ground for creativity.
Holds
A feeling of responsibility is probably the greatest inhibitor of creativity; great ideas came from people not paid to have them
Last stated c. 1959
Holds