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← Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world…
17 connected korrents · 16 moments on record from 30 Jun 2022 to 15 Sept 2026.
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innovation
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capitalism
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startups
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investing
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China
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management Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions. Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions. Last stated 2 years ago
9 Dec 2024
NB
Nat Bullard — holds since 2024-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. — tap to centre the map on it When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. Last stated a year ago
13 Aug 2025
AB
Andrew Batson — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful. — tap to centre the map on it Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful. Last stated 2 months ago
13 Jul 2026
ZH
Zeke Hausfather — holds since 2026-07-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Publishing industry claims to predict how trends will play out, but such predictions are unreliable. — tap to centre the map on it Publishing industry claims to predict how trends will play out, but such predictions are unreliable. Last stated 6 days ago
15 Sept 2026
LM
Lincoln Michel — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. — tap to centre the map on it The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. Last stated 4 years ago
30 Jun 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Economic growth from AI waits on change management, not on model capability: the work artifact and the workflow have to change first. — tap to centre the map on it Economic growth from AI waits on change management, not on model capability: the work artifact and the workflow have to change first. Last stated 10 months ago
12 Nov 2025
SN
Satya Nadella — holds since 2025-11-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. — tap to centre the map on it A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: China faces a genuine, sizable output gap right now, not just a lower structural growth ceiling. — tap to centre the map on it China faces a genuine, sizable output gap right now, not just a lower structural growth ceiling. Last stated a year ago
13 Aug 2025
AB
Andrew Batson — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science. — tap to centre the map on it Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science. Last stated a year ago
21 Sept 2025
JZ
Julie Zhuo — holds since 2025-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Lots of anonymous people worked it out by trial and error" is never the real story of an invention: on closer investigation, identifiable people always turn out to be responsible. — tap to centre the map on it "Lots of anonymous people worked it out by trial and error" is never the real story of an invention: on closer investigation, identifiable people always turn out to be responsible. Last stated 3 years ago
25 Oct 2023
AH
Anton Howes — holds since 2023-10-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A capability existing is not the same as a capability being absorbed: how fast a technology changes the world is not set by how fast the technology improves. — tap to centre the map on it A capability existing is not the same as a capability being absorbed: how fast a technology changes the world is not set by how fast the technology improves. Last stated 2 months ago
21 Jul 2026
RT
Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-07-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company working at the edge of the barely possible has to control its own technology destiny, even at the application layer. — tap to centre the map on it A company working at the edge of the barely possible has to control its own technology destiny, even at the application layer. Last stated a year ago
18 Aug 2025
CB
Clay Bavor — holds since 2025-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. — tap to centre the map on it A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. Last stated a year ago
21 May 2025
EZ
Ed Zitron — holds since 2025-05-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A market economy rewards putting land under campsites and horse liveries rather than under food, and that is the wrong thing to reward. — tap to centre the map on it A market economy rewards putting land under campsites and horse liveries rather than under food, and that is the wrong thing to reward. Last stated 3 years ago
9 Dec 2023
CS
Chris Smaje — holds since 2023-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A sophisticated economy cannot be centrally planned, because planning removes the price signal that carries information about demand. — tap to centre the map on it A sophisticated economy cannot be centrally planned, because planning removes the price signal that carries information about demand. Last stated a year ago
2 Sept 2025
BE
Benedict Evans — holds since 2025-09-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: “Why now?” is the wrong question to make a founder answer — the honest answer can simply be that you started now. — tap to centre the map on it “Why now?” is the wrong question to make a founder answer — the honest answer can simply be that you started now. Last stated 2 months ago
28 Jul 2026
BS
Blake Scholl — holds since 2026-07-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A belief nobody else shares is a warning, and a belief everybody shares is also a warning; the right number of people who agree with you is small but not zero. — tap to centre the map on it A belief nobody else shares is a warning, and a belief everybody shares is also a warning; the right number of people who agree with you is small but not zero. Last stated 2 months ago
28 Jul 2026
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2026-07-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company with ten customers has no data, and a growth team cannot function without data. — tap to centre the map on it A company with ten customers has no data, and a growth team cannot function without data. Last stated 2 years ago
19 Jan 2025
EV
Elena Verna — holds since 2025-01-19 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions.
Holds Read this korrent →
When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth.
Holds
Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful.
Holds
Publishing industry claims to predict how trends will play out, but such predictions are unreliable.
Holds
The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously.
Holds
Economic growth from AI waits on change management, not on model capability: the work artifact and the workflow have to change first.
Holds
A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance.
Holds
China faces a genuine, sizable output gap right now, not just a lower structural growth ceiling.
Holds
Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science.
Holds
"Lots of anonymous people worked it out by trial and error" is never the real story of an invention: on closer investigation, identifiable people always turn out to be responsible.
Holds
A capability existing is not the same as a capability being absorbed: how fast a technology changes the world is not set by how fast the technology improves.
Holds
A company working at the edge of the barely possible has to control its own technology destiny, even at the application layer.
Holds
A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price.
Holds
A market economy rewards putting land under campsites and horse liveries rather than under food, and that is the wrong thing to reward.
Holds
A sophisticated economy cannot be centrally planned, because planning removes the price signal that carries information about demand.
Holds
“Why now?” is the wrong question to make a founder answer — the honest answer can simply be that you started now.
Holds
A belief nobody else shares is a warning, and a belief everybody shares is also a warning; the right number of people who agree with you is small but not zero.
Holds
A company with ten customers has no data, and a growth team cannot function without data.
Holds