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← The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future…
17 connected korrents · 13 moments on record from 20 Jun 2020 to 26 Aug 2026.
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs
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economists
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hiring
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Europe Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. Last stated 4 years ago
30 Jun 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. — tap to centre the map on it Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Europe's crises were predictable and overdetermined, not the unforeseeable shocks that the 'return of history' story makes of them. — tap to centre the map on it Europe's crises were predictable and overdetermined, not the unforeseeable shocks that the 'return of history' story makes of them. Last stated 3 months ago
21 Jun 2026
AT
Adam Tooze — holds since 2026-06-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Longtermism is not the same thing as caring about the long-term future or about future generations; it goes far beyond that. — tap to centre the map on it Longtermism is not the same thing as caring about the long-term future or about future generations; it goes far beyond that. Last stated 5 years ago
19 Oct 2021
ÉT
Émile P. Torres — holds since 2021-10-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The stock of useful scientific knowledge is bounded rather than endless. — tap to centre the map on it The stock of useful scientific knowledge is bounded rather than endless. Last stated 6 years ago
20 Jun 2020
JR
José Luis Ricón — holds since 2020-06-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Working on how good the long-run future is does not require accepting consequentialism or believing that you should always maximise the good. — tap to centre the map on it Working on how good the long-run future is does not require accepting consequentialism or believing that you should always maximise the good. Last stated a year ago
3 Aug 2025
WM
William MacAskill — holds since 2025-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Whether anyone can actually do anything about how good the future is, rather than whether it matters, is the strongest objection to prioritising it. — tap to centre the map on it Whether anyone can actually do anything about how good the future is, rather than whether it matters, is the strongest objection to prioritising it. Last stated a year ago
3 Aug 2025
WM
William MacAskill — holds since 2025-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Neither the AI enthusiasts nor the AI sceptics are making it up; both camps are looking at real trends. — tap to centre the map on it Neither the AI enthusiasts nor the AI sceptics are making it up; both camps are looking at real trends. Last stated 4 weeks ago
12 Aug 2026
CM
Charity Majors — holds since 2026-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The long trend of making it easier for ordinary people to index more of the economy will resume, and AI itself will help by cutting the cost of going public. — tap to centre the map on it The long trend of making it easier for ordinary people to index more of the economy will resume, and AI itself will help by cutting the cost of going public. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. — tap to centre the map on it A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. Last stated 2 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. — tap to centre the map on it A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth. — tap to centre the map on it AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth. Last stated 8 months ago
1 Jan 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Among the leading candidates for greatest economist of all time, Adam Smith was analytically the weakest, save perhaps Malthus. — tap to centre the map on it Among the leading candidates for greatest economist of all time, Adam Smith was analytically the weakest, save perhaps Malthus. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Oct 2023
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2023-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An inability to see the viewpoints of people unlike oneself is a genuine weakness in a social scientist, not merely a separate moral failing. — tap to centre the map on it An inability to see the viewpoints of people unlike oneself is a genuine weakness in a social scientist, not merely a separate moral failing. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Oct 2023
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2023-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: College is not a good career investment for most of the population. — tap to centre the map on it College is not a good career investment for most of the population. Last stated 2 years ago
19 Feb 2025
BC
Bryan Caplan — holds since 2025-02-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A CEO cannot be a calibrated interviewer for every role, so insisting on interviewing every candidate makes hiring worse rather than better. — tap to centre the map on it A CEO cannot be a calibrated interviewer for every role, so insisting on interviewing every candidate makes hiring worse rather than better. Last stated 2 years ago
17 Dec 2024
CM
Charity Majors — holds since 2024-12-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company should always have as few employees as possible, and hiring is the lever a leader reaches for last rather than first. — tap to centre the map on it A company should always have as few employees as possible, and hiring is the lever a leader reaches for last rather than first. Last stated 2 years ago
17 Dec 2024
CM
Charity Majors — holds since 2024-12-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company should hire a product manager only against a specific need, never by default. — tap to centre the map on it A company should hire a product manager only against a specific need, never by default. Last stated a month ago
2 Aug 2026
TV
Tom Verrilli — holds since 2026-08-02 — tap for who they are
At the centre
The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously.
Holds HK Holden KarnofskyRead this korrent →
Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them.
Holds AI Alex Imas
Europe's crises were predictable and overdetermined, not the unforeseeable shocks that the 'return of history' story makes of them.
Holds AT Adam Tooze
Longtermism is not the same thing as caring about the long-term future or about future generations; it goes far beyond that.
Holds ÉT Émile P. Torres
The stock of useful scientific knowledge is bounded rather than endless.
Holds JR José Luis Ricón
Working on how good the long-run future is does not require accepting consequentialism or believing that you should always maximise the good.
Holds WM William MacAskill
Whether anyone can actually do anything about how good the future is, rather than whether it matters, is the strongest objection to prioritising it.
Holds WM William MacAskill
Neither the AI enthusiasts nor the AI sceptics are making it up; both camps are looking at real trends.
Holds CM Charity Majors
The long trend of making it easier for ordinary people to index more of the economy will resume, and AI itself will help by cutting the cost of going public.
Holds PT Phil Trammell
A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good.
Holds
A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office.
Holds AI Alex Imas
AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth.
Holds DA Dario Amodei
Among the leading candidates for greatest economist of all time, Adam Smith was analytically the weakest, save perhaps Malthus.
Holds TC Tyler Cowen
An inability to see the viewpoints of people unlike oneself is a genuine weakness in a social scientist, not merely a separate moral failing.
Holds TC Tyler Cowen
College is not a good career investment for most of the population.
Holds BC Bryan Caplan
A CEO cannot be a calibrated interviewer for every role, so insisting on interviewing every candidate makes hiring worse rather than better.
Holds CM Charity Majors
A company should always have as few employees as possible, and hiring is the lever a leader reaches for last rather than first.
Holds CM Charity Majors
A company should hire a product manager only against a specific need, never by default.
Holds TV Tom Verrilli