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← The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future…
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 20 Jun 2020 to 27 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs
Everything filed under investing
investing
Everything filed under stock market
stock market
Everything filed under Europe
Europe
Everything filed under fiscal policy
fiscal policy
Everything filed under optimism
optimism Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. Last stated 4 years ago
30 Jun 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. — tap to centre the map on it A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. — tap to centre the map on it Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Last stated 5 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Europe's crises were predictable and overdetermined, not the unforeseeable shocks that the 'return of history' story makes of them. — tap to centre the map on it Europe's crises were predictable and overdetermined, not the unforeseeable shocks that the 'return of history' story makes of them. Last stated 4 months ago
21 Jun 2026
AT
Adam Tooze — holds since 2026-06-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. — tap to centre the map on it When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. Last stated a year ago
13 Aug 2025
AB
Andrew Batson — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Longtermism is not the same thing as caring about the long-term future or about future generations; it goes far beyond that. — tap to centre the map on it Longtermism is not the same thing as caring about the long-term future or about future generations; it goes far beyond that. Last stated 5 years ago
19 Oct 2021
ÉT
Émile P. Torres — holds since 2021-10-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The stock of useful scientific knowledge is bounded rather than endless. — tap to centre the map on it The stock of useful scientific knowledge is bounded rather than endless. Last stated 6 years ago
20 Jun 2020
JR
José Luis Ricón — holds since 2020-06-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Working on how good the long-run future is does not require accepting consequentialism or believing that you should always maximise the good. — tap to centre the map on it Working on how good the long-run future is does not require accepting consequentialism or believing that you should always maximise the good. Last stated a year ago
3 Aug 2025
WM
William MacAskill — holds since 2025-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Whether anyone can actually do anything about how good the future is, rather than whether it matters, is the strongest objection to prioritising it. — tap to centre the map on it Whether anyone can actually do anything about how good the future is, rather than whether it matters, is the strongest objection to prioritising it. Last stated a year ago
3 Aug 2025
WM
William MacAskill — holds since 2025-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about. — tap to centre the map on it A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about. Last stated 7 months ago
11 Mar 2026
SY
Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A likely outcome is that many occupations are eventually mostly replaced by AI while humans still have plenty to do. — tap to centre the map on it A likely outcome is that many occupations are eventually mostly replaced by AI while humans still have plenty to do. Last stated 2 months ago
7 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A lot of jobs will probably be created because of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A lot of jobs will probably be created because of AI. Last stated 4 weeks ago
27 Sept 2026
MG
Molly Graham — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. — tap to centre the map on it A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. Last stated 10 months ago
9 Dec 2025
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at. — tap to centre the map on it A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at. Last stated 5 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. — tap to centre the map on it A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. Last stated a year ago
21 May 2025
EZ
Ed Zitron — holds since 2025-05-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. — tap to centre the map on it A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. Last stated 8 months ago
3 Mar 2026
SB
Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. — tap to centre the map on it A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. Last stated 4 weeks ago
25 Sept 2026
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2026-09-25 — tap for who they are
At the centre
The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously.
Holds Read this korrent →
A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance.
Holds
Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them.
Holds
Europe's crises were predictable and overdetermined, not the unforeseeable shocks that the 'return of history' story makes of them.
Holds
When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth.
Holds
Longtermism is not the same thing as caring about the long-term future or about future generations; it goes far beyond that.
Holds
The stock of useful scientific knowledge is bounded rather than endless.
Holds
Working on how good the long-run future is does not require accepting consequentialism or believing that you should always maximise the good.
Holds
Whether anyone can actually do anything about how good the future is, rather than whether it matters, is the strongest objection to prioritising it.
Holds
A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about.
Holds
A likely outcome is that many occupations are eventually mostly replaced by AI while humans still have plenty to do.
Holds
A lot of jobs will probably be created because of AI.
Holds
A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now.
Holds
A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate.
Holds
A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at.
Holds
A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price.
Holds
A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack.
Holds
A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market.
Holds