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← A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance.

17 connected korrents · 16 moments on record from 14 Mar 2014 to 4 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under investing investing Everything filed under stock market stock market Everything filed under venture capital venture capital Everything filed under market efficiency market efficiency Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. A run of correct forecasts is not evidenceof expertise, because among manyforecasters some are right by chance. Last stated 4 years ago 9 Aug 2022 GK Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate aself-fulfilling ('sunspot') debtcrisis simply by credibly committingto buy as many bonds as needed atthe low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago 1 Jun 2022 OB Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A company priced in the trillions is not thereby overpriced; the test is what revenues and margins that price actually requires. — tap to centre the map on it A company priced in the trillions isnot thereby overpriced; the test iswhat revenues and margins that priceactually requires. Last stated 9 months ago 3 Dec 2025 AD Aswath Damodaran — holds since 2025-12-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A company that grows enough eventually has no need for investors. — tap to centre the map on it A company that grows enougheventually has no need forinvestors. Last stated a week ago 1 Sept 2026 PG Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at. — tap to centre the map on it A founder who does not know theirown goal dies by a thousandcompromises and ends up running acompany they do not want to work at. Last stated 3 months ago 2 Jun 2026 MP Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement. — tap to centre the map on it A government debt crisis ismeasurable and therefore visiblewell in advance; the diagnostic ismechanical rather than a matter ofjudgement. Last stated 3 weeks ago 21 Aug 2026 RD Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: A margin of safety means paying a discount deep enough that being wrong about what a company is worth still leaves you whole. — tap to centre the map on it A margin of safety means paying adiscount deep enough that beingwrong about what a company is worthstill leaves you whole. Last stated 3 years ago 20 Feb 2024 BA Bill Ackman — holds since 2024-02-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: A margin only counts while you are still investing heavily, because cutting the investment raises this year's margin and lowers the long-term one. — tap to centre the map on it A margin only counts while you arestill investing heavily, becausecutting the investment raises thisyear's margin and lowers thelong-term one. Last stated a year ago 16 Jul 2025 JD Jamie Dimon — holds since 2025-07-16 — tap for who they are Same subject: About a dozen holdings captures nearly all the benefit of diversification; going to fifty adds almost nothing. — tap to centre the map on it About a dozen holdings capturesnearly all the benefit ofdiversification; going to fifty addsalmost nothing. Last stated 3 years ago 20 Feb 2024 BA Bill Ackman — holds since 2024-02-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: Almost all of the dot-com era's exuberance turned out to be warranted; we remember the failures and forget the value that era created. — tap to centre the map on it Almost all of the dot-com era'sexuberance turned out to bewarranted; we remember the failuresand forget the value that eracreated. Last stated a year ago 18 Aug 2025 BT Bret Taylor — holds since 2025-08-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: Cash transfers are the index fund of development: the benchmark every actively managed aid programme should have to beat. — tap to centre the map on it Cash transfers are the index fund ofdevelopment: the benchmark everyactively managed aid programmeshould have to beat. Last stated 12 years ago 14 Mar 2014 CB Chris Blattman — holds since 2014-03-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: Losing money periodically is a normal part of owning stocks, not a sign that something has gone wrong. — tap to centre the map on it Losing money periodically is anormal part of owning stocks, not asign that something has gone wrong. Last stated 2 weeks ago 27 Aug 2026 BC Ben Carlson — holds since 2026-08-27 — tap for who they are Same subject: About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out. — tap to centre the map on it About 5% is the most common finalownership stake for the founder of aVC-funded startup that works out. Last stated 2 months ago 18 Jul 2026 PL Pieter Levels — holds since 2026-07-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI factories and foundries are too capital-intensive for venture money; they need government or sovereign funds behind them. — tap to centre the map on it AI factories and foundries are toocapital-intensive for venture money;they need government or sovereignfunds behind them. Last stated 3 months ago 18 Jun 2026 LT Lip-Bu Tan — holds since 2026-06-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: Nine of every ten companies he backed changed their business plan halfway through, because the market changed under them. — tap to centre the map on it Nine of every ten companies hebacked changed their business planhalfway through, because the marketchanged under them. Last stated 3 months ago 18 Jun 2026 LT Lip-Bu Tan — holds since 2026-06-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: Stocks sustained by persistent online attention can stay overpriced for long periods, so overvaluation alone does not imply a near-term correction. — tap to centre the map on it Stocks sustained by persistentonline attention can stay overpricedfor long periods, so overvaluationalone does not imply a near-termcorrection. Last stated 4 years ago 25 Jul 2022 NS Noah Smith — holds since 2022-07-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: Technology has made markets less efficient at long horizons rather than more efficient. — tap to centre the map on it Technology has made markets lessefficient at long horizons ratherthan more efficient. Last stated 2 years ago 3 Sept 2024 CA Cliff Asness — holds since 2024-09-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: The efficient market hypothesis is at best a very lossy heuristic — tap to centre the map on it The efficient market hypothesis isat best a very lossy heuristic Last stated 4 days ago 4 Sept 2026 NF Nat Friedman — holds since 2026-09-04 — tap for who they are
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At the centre A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. Last stated 9 Aug 2022 · 4 years ago Holds Gary Klein Read this korrent →