Ray Dalio

@ray-dalio · 6 positions · 0 changes of mind

Founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and led it until stepping back from control in 2022. Author of Principles, The Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke; publishes economic analysis at economicprinciples.org.

Ray Dalio did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

21 Aug 2026

Our reading
A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending.

Their wordsThe debt dynamics work the same for a central government as they do for a person or a company, except that a central government has a central bank that can print money (which devalues it) and it can take money away from people via taxes.

↗How Countries Go Broke: The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Nowraydalio.substack.com

interest rates
21 Aug 2026

Our reading
A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement.

Their wordsBecause one can measure these things, one can monitor this debt dynamic happening, so it’s easy to see problems approaching. I’ve used this diagnostic process in my investing and I’ve kept it to myself, but I’m now explaining it in detail in How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle because it is too important to keep to myself.

↗How Countries Go Broke: The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Nowraydalio.substack.com
21 Aug 2026

Our reading
The late stage of the Big Debt Cycle shows itself as long rates leading rates up, the currency falling against gold, and the treasury shortening maturities.

Their wordsEarly in the final stage of the Big Debt Cycle, the market action reflects this dynamic via interest rates rising led by long-term rates, the currency declining especially relative to gold, and the central government’s treasury department shortening the maturities of its debt offerings because of a shortage of the demand for long-term debt.

↗How Countries Go Broke: The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Nowraydalio.substack.com

interest rates
2 months earlier
10 Jun 2026

Our reading
Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little.

Their wordsI know through my experiences that even the most advanced artificial intelligences don’t have adequate enough insights to allow one to blindly follow them and that unique human understanding and insights are still invaluable, and that that is especially true in investing where value-added is a zero-sum game (so that, when it comes to adding value, what is widely known is of little value.)

↗Principled Thinking and AI Need to Go Togetherraydalio.substack.com
10 Jun 2026

Our reading
Decision criteria have to come from logical cause-and-effect understanding, not from data-mining what worked before, and not from asking an AI what to do.

Their wordsTo be clear, these criteria are not best derived by looking at what would have worked in the past and assuming that it will work in the future—i.e., data mining—or simply asking an AI what to do. They are based on logical understandings converted into decision-making systems.

↗Principled Thinking and AI Need to Go Togetherraydalio.substack.com
10 Jun 2026

Our reading
Systematising principled decision-making with AI is now the line between staying competitive and not; there is no position in between.

Their wordsWhat this process can now do in creating understanding of the timeless and universal cause:effect relationship and enhancing and systemizing whatever one is thinking is mind-blowing. I believe that you will either stay at the cutting edge of doing this or you will be uncompetitive.

↗Principled Thinking and AI Need to Go Togetherraydalio.substack.com