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← Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are…
17 connected korrents · 9 moments on record from 1 Oct 2023 to 26 Aug 2026. Nearly all of them are about economists .
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education Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Among the leading candidates for greatest economist of all time, Adam Smith was analytically the weakest, save perhaps Malthus. — tap to centre the map on it Among the leading candidates for greatest economist of all time, Adam Smith was analytically the weakest, save perhaps Malthus. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Oct 2023
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2023-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An inability to see the viewpoints of people unlike oneself is a genuine weakness in a social scientist, not merely a separate moral failing. — tap to centre the map on it An inability to see the viewpoints of people unlike oneself is a genuine weakness in a social scientist, not merely a separate moral failing. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Oct 2023
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2023-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: College is not a good career investment for most of the population. — tap to centre the map on it College is not a good career investment for most of the population. Last stated 2 years ago
19 Feb 2025
BC
Bryan Caplan — holds since 2025-02-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Development economists can contribute far less to a poor country’s growth policy in real time than either they or their critics assume. — tap to centre the map on it Development economists can contribute far less to a poor country’s growth policy in real time than either they or their critics assume. Last stated 4 months ago
6 May 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-05-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Hayek's three best economics articles surpass the three best articles from any other economist. — tap to centre the map on it Hayek's three best economics articles surpass the three best articles from any other economist. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Oct 2023
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2023-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: It is better for researchers to study something knowable than something unknowable, even when the knowable question matters less. — tap to centre the map on it It is better for researchers to study something knowable than something unknowable, even when the knowable question matters less. Last stated 4 months ago
6 May 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-05-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: John Maynard Keynes is best understood as a British aesthete rationalist who did economics in his spare time, not primarily as an economist. — tap to centre the map on it John Maynard Keynes is best understood as a British aesthete rationalist who did economics in his spare time, not primarily as an economist. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Oct 2023
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2023-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Milton Friedman was the best economist among the plausible candidates for greatest economist of all time. — tap to centre the map on it Milton Friedman was the best economist among the plausible candidates for greatest economist of all time. Last stated 3 years ago
1 Oct 2023
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2023-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. — tap to centre the map on it A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. Last stated 2 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. — tap to centre the map on it A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth. — tap to centre the map on it AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth. Last stated 8 months ago
1 Jan 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Companies should still be hiring junior engineers in the AI era, and should give them visible progress in their first few years. — tap to centre the map on it Companies should still be hiring junior engineers in the AI era, and should give them visible progress in their first few years. Last stated a year ago
28 May 2025
CF
Camille Fournier — holds since 2025-05-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The current tech layoffs are pandemic over-hiring correcting itself, with AI as the convenient excuse. — tap to centre the map on it The current tech layoffs are pandemic over-hiring correcting itself, with AI as the convenient excuse. Last stated 2 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is still no white-collar apocalypse in the data: you have to squint to see anything, and even junior developer hiring is below trend rather than falling. — tap to centre the map on it There is still no white-collar apocalypse in the data: you have to squint to see anything, and even junior developer hiring is below trend rather than falling. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will flatten the design profession: when ten AI-enabled designers do the work of a department of a hundred, the need for higher management levels shrivels. — tap to centre the map on it AI will flatten the design profession: when ten AI-enabled designers do the work of a department of a hundred, the need for higher management levels shrivels. Last stated 2 years ago
21 Nov 2024
JN
Jakob Nielsen — holds since 2024-11-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Programmers are turning into project managers of an army of junior agents, and the craft is moving from writing code to reviewing it and holding the architecture. — tap to centre the map on it Programmers are turning into project managers of an army of junior agents, and the craft is moving from writing code to reviewing it and holding the architecture. Last stated 4 months ago
13 May 2026
AH
Anders Hejlsberg — holds since 2026-05-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Software is product management, and those are the skills the agentic era rewards — skills that are not evenly distributed among programmers. — tap to centre the map on it Software is product management, and those are the skills the agentic era rewards — skills that are not evenly distributed among programmers. Last stated 2 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them.
Holds AI Alex ImasRead this korrent →
Among the leading candidates for greatest economist of all time, Adam Smith was analytically the weakest, save perhaps Malthus.
Holds TC Tyler Cowen
An inability to see the viewpoints of people unlike oneself is a genuine weakness in a social scientist, not merely a separate moral failing.
Holds TC Tyler Cowen
College is not a good career investment for most of the population.
Holds BC Bryan Caplan
Development economists can contribute far less to a poor country’s growth policy in real time than either they or their critics assume.
Holds
Hayek's three best economics articles surpass the three best articles from any other economist.
Holds TC Tyler Cowen
It is better for researchers to study something knowable than something unknowable, even when the knowable question matters less.
Holds
John Maynard Keynes is best understood as a British aesthete rationalist who did economics in his spare time, not primarily as an economist.
Holds TC Tyler Cowen
Milton Friedman was the best economist among the plausible candidates for greatest economist of all time.
Holds TC Tyler Cowen
A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good.
Holds
A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office.
Holds AI Alex Imas
AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth.
Holds DA Dario Amodei
Companies should still be hiring junior engineers in the AI era, and should give them visible progress in their first few years.
Holds CF Camille Fournier
The current tech layoffs are pandemic over-hiring correcting itself, with AI as the convenient excuse.
Holds
There is still no white-collar apocalypse in the data: you have to squint to see anything, and even junior developer hiring is below trend rather than falling.
Holds AI Alex Imas
AI will flatten the design profession: when ten AI-enabled designers do the work of a department of a hundred, the need for higher management levels shrivels.
Holds JN Jakob Nielsen
Programmers are turning into project managers of an army of junior agents, and the craft is moving from writing code to reviewing it and holding the architecture.
Holds AH Anders Hejlsberg
Software is product management, and those are the skills the agentic era rewards — skills that are not evenly distributed among programmers.
Holds