korrents

On the map

Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.

← Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are…

17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 1 Apr 2002 to 27 Sept 2026. Nearly all of them are about economists.

Everything filed under AI and jobs AI and jobs Everything filed under education education Everything filed under physics physics Everything filed under humility humility Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Individual economists' forecasts about AIand the labour market are close toworthless, and aggregated forecasts fromprediction markets should replace them. Last stated 5 months ago 4 Jun 2026 AI Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: Among the leading candidates for greatest economist of all time, Adam Smith was analytically the weakest, save perhaps Malthus. — tap to centre the map on it Among the leading candidates forgreatest economist of all time, AdamSmith was analytically the weakest,save perhaps Malthus. Last stated 3 years ago 1 Oct 2023 TC Tyler Cowen — holds since 2023-10-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: An inability to see the viewpoints of people unlike oneself is a genuine weakness in a social scientist, not merely a separate moral failing. — tap to centre the map on it An inability to see the viewpointsof people unlike oneself is agenuine weakness in a socialscientist, not merely a separatemoral failing. Last stated 3 years ago 1 Oct 2023 TC Tyler Cowen — holds since 2023-10-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: Aspiring economists should take as many math and statistics courses as they can stomach — tap to centre the map on it Aspiring economists should take asmany math and statistics courses asthey can stomach Last stated 20 years ago 23 May 2006 GM Greg Mankiw — holds since 2006-05-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: College is not a good career investment for most of the population. — tap to centre the map on it College is not a good careerinvestment for most of thepopulation. Last stated 2 years ago 19 Feb 2025 BC Bryan Caplan — holds since 2025-02-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: Competition that removes differentiation makes everyone worse off, because it assumes people already know what they want. — tap to centre the map on it Competition that removesdifferentiation makes everyone worseoff, because it assumes peoplealready know what they want. Last stated 10 months ago 9 Dec 2025 RS Rory Sutherland — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: Cumrun Vafa's 'dark dimension' torsion balance experiment does not amount to a genuine testable prediction of string theory. — tap to centre the map on it Cumrun Vafa's 'dark dimension'torsion balance experiment does notamount to a genuine testableprediction of string theory. Last stated 2 months ago 26 Aug 2026 PW Peter Woit — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: Development economists can contribute far less to a poor country’s growth policy in real time than either they or their critics assume. — tap to centre the map on it Development economists cancontribute far less to a poorcountry’s growth policy in real timethan either they or their criticsassume. Last stated 6 months ago 6 May 2026 NS Noah Smith — holds since 2026-05-06 — tap for who they are Same subject: Differences between the public's and economists' economic views do not solely reflect economists' self-serving bias. — tap to centre the map on it Differences between the public's andeconomists' economic views do notsolely reflect economists'self-serving bias. Last stated 25 years ago 1 Apr 2002 BC Bryan Caplan — holds since 2002-04-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about. — tap to centre the map on it A company must cut half itsengineers to pay for the otherhalf's tokens, and that is what thelayoffs are actually about. Last stated 7 months ago 11 Mar 2026 SY Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: A likely outcome is that many occupations are eventually mostly replaced by AI while humans still have plenty to do. — tap to centre the map on it A likely outcome is that manyoccupations are eventually mostlyreplaced by AI while humans stillhave plenty to do. Last stated 2 months ago 7 Sept 2026 NS Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: A lot of jobs will probably be created because of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A lot of jobs will probably becreated because of AI. Last stated 4 weeks ago 27 Sept 2026 MG Molly Graham — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI will not eliminate software engineering jobs, but engineers who are highly skilled with AI tools could displace those who are not. — tap to centre the map on it AI will not eliminate softwareengineering jobs, but engineers whoare highly skilled with AI toolscould displace those who are not. Last stated 6 months ago 27 Apr 2026 JS Jon Seager — holds since 2026-04-27 — tap for who they are Same subject: As a capability becomes abundant, its remaining scarce complements become more valuable. — tap to centre the map on it As a capability becomes abundant,its remaining scarce complementsbecome more valuable. Last stated a month ago 13 Sept 2026 VR Venkatesh Rao — holds since 2026-09-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: Leaning on AI trades knowledge for speed, and the price may be a generation of programmers in which juniors stay juniors forever. — tap to centre the map on it Leaning on AI trades knowledge forspeed, and the price may be ageneration of programmers in whichjuniors stay juniors forever. Last stated 2 years ago 22 Mar 2025 TH ThePrimeagen — holds since 2025-03-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI coding assistants are leveling the skill gap between software developers who can afford to use them. — tap to centre the map on it AI coding assistants are levelingthe skill gap between softwaredevelopers who can afford to usethem. Last stated 6 months ago 3 May 2026 YX Yihui Xie — holds since 2026-05-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI coding assistants remove repetitive work without replacing human judgment. — tap to centre the map on it AI coding assistants removerepetitive work without replacinghuman judgment. Last stated 8 months ago 17 Feb 2026 EB Emanuele Bartolesi — holds since 2026-02-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI models have reached the level of a junior engineer on longer-running, agent-based coding tasks. — tap to centre the map on it AI models have reached the level ofa junior engineer on longer-running,agent-based coding tasks. Last stated 3 months ago 30 Jul 2026 JD Jeff Dean — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are
same subject or similar wordinga cloud: claims about one subject, named for itbar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2002 to today (stretched back to the oldest claim here) — full is todaya face: someone who holds the claim — tap it for who they are

At the centre Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Last stated 4 Jun 2026 · 5 months ago Holds Alex Imas Read this korrent →