Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them.

Drawn from what Alex Imas said

What these subjects mean

AI and jobs Whether AI displaces human work, which jobs go first, and what replaces them.

economists The economists themselves and the schools they founded -- Smith, Mill, Keynes, Hayek, Friedman -- rather than any one economic question.

Interesting

A private bookmark. Not a position, and never counted.

What Alex Imas actually said

Word for word, with the source under each one. They did not write this page.

Alex Imas 4 Jun 2026

Behavioural economist at Chicago Booth

rather than thinking about individual forecasts like what me and Phil are going to do, rather looking at kind of like basically generating prediction markets, where you get aggregate forecasts, where you get like kind of wisdom of the crowd effects. And kind of the reason that I think this is because we have been famously terrible at forecasting.

Where this was said
Watch from 0:02:56 plays here
↗The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammellyoutube.com

video · 1h 16m · spoken · machine transcript

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