The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously.

Added to korrents 30 Jun 2022 · How quotes work · Something wrong? Tell us

Related korrents

Our reading — they may agree, disagree or merely touch the same thing. Closest first: a shared subject counts for most, then how near the wording is.

• Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. AIAlex Imas4 Jun 2026similar wording
• Europe's crises were predictable and overdetermined, not the unforeseeable shocks that the 'return of history' story makes of them. ATAdam Tooze21 Jun 2026similar wording
• Longtermism is not the same thing as caring about the long-term future or about future generations; it goes far beyond that. ÉTÉmile P. Torres19 Oct 2021similar wording
• The stock of useful scientific knowledge is bounded rather than endless. JRJosé Luis Ricón20 Jun 2020similar wording
• Working on how good the long-run future is does not require accepting consequentialism or believing that you should always maximise the good. WMWilliam MacAskill3 Aug 2025similar wording

See this on the map →