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← When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals…
17 connected korrents · 14 moments from 11 Jan 2021 to 26 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under fiscal policy
fiscal policy
Everything filed under China
China
Everything filed under management
management
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs
Everything filed under value investing
value investing Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth. Last stated a year ago
13 Aug 2025
AB
Andrew Batson — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: China faces a genuine, sizable output gap right now, not just a lower structural growth ceiling. — tap to centre the map on it China faces a genuine, sizable output gap right now, not just a lower structural growth ceiling. Last stated a year ago
13 Aug 2025
AB
Andrew Batson — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions. — tap to centre the map on it Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions. Last stated 2 years ago
9 Dec 2024
NB
Nat Bullard — holds since 2024-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A declining manufacturing share of GDP as an economy matures reflects economic success rather than decline. — tap to centre the map on it A declining manufacturing share of GDP as an economy matures reflects economic success rather than decline. Last stated 11 months ago
23 Nov 2025
AB
Andrew Batson — holds since 2025-11-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science. — tap to centre the map on it Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science. Last stated a year ago
21 Sept 2025
JZ
Julie Zhuo — holds since 2025-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Understanding the future depends more on imagination and a clear theory of change than on analytical skill alone. — tap to centre the map on it Understanding the future depends more on imagination and a clear theory of change than on analytical skill alone. Last stated 2 years ago
9 Dec 2024
NB
Nat Bullard — holds since 2024-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. — tap to centre the map on it Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Last stated 5 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. — tap to centre the map on it The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. Last stated 4 years ago
30 Jun 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The value-versus-growth distinction does not serve investors well in a fast-changing world. — tap to centre the map on it The value-versus-growth distinction does not serve investors well in a fast-changing world. Last stated 6 years ago
11 Jan 2021
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2021-01-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: ‘Chainsaw’ economics as tried by Truss, Musk and Milei did damage without achieving its goals. — tap to centre the map on it ‘Chainsaw’ economics as tried by Truss, Musk and Milei did damage without achieving its goals. Last stated a week ago
26 Oct 2026
WD
William Davies — holds since 2026-10-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens. — tap to centre the map on it A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens. Last stated 2 years ago
20 Jan 2025
DT
Donald Trump — holds since 2025-01-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A crowd will always accept an indirect tax, however high, because it passes unperceived — tap to centre the map on it A crowd will always accept an indirect tax, however high, because it passes unperceived
GB
Gustave Le Bon — holds since c. 1895 — tap for who they are
Same subject: During post-2008 fiscal consolidation, the costs of high public debt were overestimated and fiscal multipliers were underestimated, understating the output costs of austerity. — tap to centre the map on it During post-2008 fiscal consolidation, the costs of high public debt were overestimated and fiscal multipliers were underestimated, understating the output costs of austerity. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Government borrowing through the financial crisis and the pandemic was a good trade, because it repaired household balance sheets. — tap to centre the map on it Government borrowing through the financial crisis and the pandemic was a good trade, because it repaired household balance sheets. Last stated 2 months ago
28 Aug 2026
BC
Ben Carlson — holds since 2026-08-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Republicans' long-term strategy since Reagan has been to spend heavily on things that don't benefit the non-rich, refuse to raise taxes, and thereby balloon the national debt. — tap to centre the map on it Republicans' long-term strategy since Reagan has been to spend heavily on things that don't benefit the non-rich, refuse to raise taxes, and thereby balloon the national debt. Last stated 2 months ago
16 Sept 2026
RS
Richard Stallman — holds since 2026-09-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A national fund should pay everyone £15 at age 21 as partial compensation for lost natural inheritance — tap to centre the map on it A national fund should pay everyone £15 at age 21 as partial compensation for lost natural inheritance
TP
Thomas Paine — holds since c. 1795–1797 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A thriving society needs both the left's redistributing of resources and the right's producing and conserving of them — tap to centre the map on it A thriving society needs both the left's redistributing of resources and the right's producing and conserving of them Last stated 3 years ago
11 May 2023
RB
Roy Baumeister — holds since 2023-05-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Australia should restore the fiscal guardrails Peter Costello put in place. — tap to centre the map on it Australia should restore the fiscal guardrails Peter Costello put in place. Last stated 2 years ago
6 Jan 2025
AT
Angus Taylor — holds since 2025-01-06 — tap for who they are
At the centre
When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth.
Holds Read this korrent →
China faces a genuine, sizable output gap right now, not just a lower structural growth ceiling.
Holds
Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions.
Holds
A declining manufacturing share of GDP as an economy matures reflects economic success rather than decline.
Holds
Numbers offer a false precision: which metrics you choose to look at, and whether a five percent rise is good, are both art rather than science.
Holds
Understanding the future depends more on imagination and a clear theory of change than on analytical skill alone.
Holds
Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them.
Holds
The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously.
Holds
The value-versus-growth distinction does not serve investors well in a fast-changing world.
Holds
‘Chainsaw’ economics as tried by Truss, Musk and Milei did damage without achieving its goals.
Holds
A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens.
Holds
A crowd will always accept an indirect tax, however high, because it passes unperceived
Last stated c. 1895
Holds
During post-2008 fiscal consolidation, the costs of high public debt were overestimated and fiscal multipliers were underestimated, understating the output costs of austerity.
Holds
Government borrowing through the financial crisis and the pandemic was a good trade, because it repaired household balance sheets.
Holds
Republicans' long-term strategy since Reagan has been to spend heavily on things that don't benefit the non-rich, refuse to raise taxes, and thereby balloon the national debt.
Holds
A national fund should pay everyone £15 at age 21 as partial compensation for lost natural inheritance
Last stated c. 1795–1797
Holds
A thriving society needs both the left's redistributing of resources and the right's producing and conserving of them
Holds
Australia should restore the fiscal guardrails Peter Costello put in place.
Holds