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← Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful.
17 connected korrents · 18 moments on record from 3 Jul 2018 to 9 Sept 2026.
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Everything filed under metascience
metascience Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful. Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful. Last stated 2 months ago
13 Jul 2026
ZH
Zeke Hausfather — holds since 2026-07-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. — tap to centre the map on it A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. — tap to centre the map on it Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions. — tap to centre the map on it Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions. Last stated 2 years ago
9 Dec 2024
NB
Nat Bullard — holds since 2024-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Alignment of today's models is going well enough to look solvable, while aligning models we can no longer understand remains unsolved. — tap to centre the map on it Alignment of today's models is going well enough to look solvable, while aligning models we can no longer understand remains unsolved. Last stated 8 months ago
22 Jan 2026
JL
Jan Leike — holds since 2026-01-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The workable model right now is one super agent for a whole company, not a personal agent for every person. — tap to centre the map on it The workable model right now is one super agent for a whole company, not a personal agent for every person. Last stated 4 months ago
24 May 2026
DS
Dan Shipper — holds since 2026-05-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model can predict what a person would say but not what will happen, and only the second of those is a model of the world. — tap to centre the map on it A language model can predict what a person would say but not what will happen, and only the second of those is a model of the world. Last stated 12 months ago
26 Sept 2025
RS
Richard Sutton — holds since 2025-09-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model only days into training cannot be known to be aligned, and if such models can leap a generation ahead this fast then training pauses mean little and timelines are shorter than previously thought. — tap to centre the map on it A model only days into training cannot be known to be aligned, and if such models can leap a generation ahead this fast then training pauses mean little and timelines are shorter than previously thought. Last stated 2 weeks ago
9 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The test of a scientific model is not whether supporting evidence can be found for it, but whether it fits the totality of the evidence. — tap to centre the map on it The test of a scientific model is not whether supporting evidence can be found for it, but whether it fits the totality of the evidence. Last stated 8 years ago
3 Jul 2018
SG
Stephan Guyenet — holds since 2018-07-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. — tap to centre the map on it A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. Last stated 9 months ago
9 Dec 2025
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company priced in the trillions is not thereby overpriced; the test is what revenues and margins that price actually requires. — tap to centre the map on it A company priced in the trillions is not thereby overpriced; the test is what revenues and margins that price actually requires. Last stated 10 months ago
3 Dec 2025
AD
Aswath Damodaran — holds since 2025-12-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. — tap to centre the map on it A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. Last stated a year ago
21 May 2025
EZ
Ed Zitron — holds since 2025-05-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Almost all of the dot-com era's exuberance turned out to be warranted; we remember the failures and forget the value that era created. — tap to centre the map on it Almost all of the dot-com era's exuberance turned out to be warranted; we remember the failures and forget the value that era created. Last stated a year ago
18 Aug 2025
BT
Bret Taylor — holds since 2025-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Almost no mutual fund earns the fees it charges, so most investors are better off buying an index fund. — tap to centre the map on it Almost no mutual fund earns the fees it charges, so most investors are better off buying an index fund. Last stated 3 years ago
20 Feb 2024
BA
Bill Ackman — holds since 2024-02-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company that grows enough eventually has no need for investors. — tap to centre the map on it A company that grows enough eventually has no need for investors. Last stated 3 weeks ago
1 Sept 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. — tap to centre the map on it A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. Last stated 3 months ago
14 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. — tap to centre the map on it A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. Last stated 4 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful.
Holds Read this korrent →
A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance.
Holds
Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them.
Holds
Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions.
Holds
Alignment of today's models is going well enough to look solvable, while aligning models we can no longer understand remains unsolved.
Holds
The workable model right now is one super agent for a whole company, not a personal agent for every person.
Holds
A language model can predict what a person would say but not what will happen, and only the second of those is a model of the world.
Holds
A model only days into training cannot be known to be aligned, and if such models can leap a generation ahead this fast then training pauses mean little and timelines are shorter than previously thought.
Holds
The test of a scientific model is not whether supporting evidence can be found for it, but whether it fits the totality of the evidence.
Holds
A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now.
Holds
A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate.
Holds
A company priced in the trillions is not thereby overpriced; the test is what revenues and margins that price actually requires.
Holds
A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price.
Holds
Almost all of the dot-com era's exuberance turned out to be warranted; we remember the failures and forget the value that era created.
Holds
Almost no mutual fund earns the fees it charges, so most investors are better off buying an index fund.
Holds
A company that grows enough eventually has no need for investors.
Holds
A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit.
Holds
A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for.
Holds