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← Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful.
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 4 Jul 2022 to 7 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under epidemiology
epidemiology
Everything filed under benchmarks
benchmarks
Everything filed under humility
humility
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under investing
investing
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs
Everything filed under optimism
optimism
Everything filed under health and fitness
health and fitness Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful. Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful. Last stated 4 months ago
13 Jul 2026
ZH
Zeke Hausfather — holds since 2026-07-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. — tap to centre the map on it A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. — tap to centre the map on it Individual economists' forecasts about AI and the labour market are close to worthless, and aggregated forecasts from prediction markets should replace them. Last stated 5 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Industry leaders' predictions about AI are not more reliable than outside observers' because they are shaped by vested commercial interests. — tap to centre the map on it Industry leaders' predictions about AI are not more reliable than outside observers' because they are shaped by vested commercial interests. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Dec 2024
AN
Arvind Narayanan — holds since 2024-12-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Do not assume how good a model will or will not be at the thing you want it to do. — tap to centre the map on it Do not assume how good a model will or will not be at the thing you want it to do. Last stated 3 months ago
11 Aug 2026
KZ
Kyle Zantos — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The fundamentals matter way more than how quickly someone works, how many tools they use, or how they optimise for the models. — tap to centre the map on it The fundamentals matter way more than how quickly someone works, how many tools they use, or how they optimise for the models. Last stated 2 months ago
25 Aug 2026
JB
John Bai — holds since 2026-08-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions. — tap to centre the map on it Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions. Last stated 2 years ago
9 Dec 2024
NB
Nat Bullard — holds since 2024-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Feeling you have a grip on AI by getting your skills in the right order and your review flow right is probably a lot of cope for the fact that the models are still inconsistent. — tap to centre the map on it Feeling you have a grip on AI by getting your skills in the right order and your review flow right is probably a lot of cope for the fact that the models are still inconsistent. Last stated 7 months ago
14 Apr 2026
BL
Brian Lovin — holds since 2026-04-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A true expert has a predictive model that works, and experts are under pressure from two directions — tap to centre the map on it A true expert has a predictive model that works, and experts are under pressure from two directions Last stated 4 years ago
3 Mar 2023
MM
Michael Mauboussin — holds since 2023-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A definitive answer regarding the origins of the virus is not required before implementing preventive measures. — tap to centre the map on it A definitive answer regarding the origins of the virus is not required before implementing preventive measures. Last stated 4 years ago
28 Feb 2023
CR
Caitlin Rivers — holds since 2023-02-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A significant proportion of SIDS deaths are actually accidental suffocations related to sleep position. — tap to centre the map on it A significant proportion of SIDS deaths are actually accidental suffocations related to sleep position. Last stated a year ago
21 Jul 2025
DG
David Gorski — holds since 2025-07-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Agricultural cities that were meant as a paradise for humans turned out to be a paradise for germs — tap to centre the map on it Agricultural cities that were meant as a paradise for humans turned out to be a paradise for germs Last stated 2 years ago
28 Oct 2024
YH
Yuval Noah Harari — holds since 2024-10-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Almost everyone over 30 is overweight and has belly fat, which constitutes an epidemic. — tap to centre the map on it Almost everyone over 30 is overweight and has belly fat, which constitutes an epidemic. Last stated 4 weeks ago
7 Oct 2026
PL
Pieter Levels — holds since 2026-10-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Ultra-processed foods have epidemiological evidence of harm comparable to what existed for smoking. — tap to centre the map on it Ultra-processed foods have epidemiological evidence of harm comparable to what existed for smoking. Last stated 7 months ago
7 Apr 2026
JB
Jamie Brandon — holds since 2026-04-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A basic week might be about 60 percent weight training and 40 percent conditioning. — tap to centre the map on it A basic week might be about 60 percent weight training and 40 percent conditioning. Last stated 4 years ago
4 Jul 2022
JC
Jeff Cavaliere — holds since 2022-07-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The raw count of food recalls is a poor measure of foodborne illness trends because unknown contamination goes uncounted. — tap to centre the map on it The raw count of food recalls is a poor measure of foodborne illness trends because unknown contamination goes uncounted. Last stated 2 months ago
25 Aug 2026
KJ
Katelyn Jetelina — holds since 2026-08-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: 'Everyone gets it wrong sometimes' is a bad argument when assessing track records. — tap to centre the map on it 'Everyone gets it wrong sometimes' is a bad argument when assessing track records. Last stated 3 months ago
2 Aug 2026
AK
Adam Kucharski — holds since 2026-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. Last stated 4 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are