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← A true expert has a predictive model that works, and experts are under pressure from two directions
17 connected korrents · 16 moments from 4 Feb 2021 to 12 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under epidemiology
epidemiology
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws
Everything filed under OpenAI
OpenAI
Everything filed under hiring
hiring
Everything filed under Psychotherapy
Psychotherapy
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under behavioural science
behavioural science
Everything filed under investing
investing Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: A true expert has a predictive model that works, and experts are under pressure from two directions A true expert has a predictive model that works, and experts are under pressure from two directions Last stated 4 years ago
3 Mar 2023
MM
Michael Mauboussin — holds since 2023-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful. — tap to centre the map on it Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful. Last stated 3 months ago
13 Jul 2026
ZH
Zeke Hausfather — holds since 2026-07-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Between two graduates in any field, he would hire the one who is expert at using AI. — tap to centre the map on it Between two graduates in any field, he would hire the one who is expert at using AI. Last stated 6 months ago
23 Mar 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-03-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The person receiving advice usually knows more about their own situation than the person giving it does. — tap to centre the map on it The person receiving advice usually knows more about their own situation than the person giving it does. Last stated a year ago
26 May 2025
NN
Neel Nanda — holds since 2025-05-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model can predict what a person would say but not what will happen, and only the second of those is a model of the world. — tap to centre the map on it A language model can predict what a person would say but not what will happen, and only the second of those is a model of the world. Last stated a year ago
26 Sept 2025
RS
Richard Sutton — holds since 2025-09-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An AI agent's confidence that something will work is not evidence that it actually will. — tap to centre the map on it An AI agent's confidence that something will work is not evidence that it actually will. Last stated 7 months ago
11 Mar 2026
KD
Kent C. Dodds — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Mixture-of-experts models can scale stably but begin to show fundamental limits as they are scaled further. — tap to centre the map on it Mixture-of-experts models can scale stably but begin to show fundamental limits as they are scaled further. Last stated 6 years ago
4 Feb 2021
GW
Gwern — holds since 2021-02-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Experts stay highly aware of their own mistakes, and the people who stall at competence are the ones who move on and forget theirs. — tap to centre the map on it Experts stay highly aware of their own mistakes, and the people who stall at competence are the ones who move on and forget theirs. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. — tap to centre the map on it A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Higher male global TB burden may be in large part due to population-scale factors such as employment, social contacts and health-seeking behaviours. — tap to centre the map on it Higher male global TB burden may be in large part due to population-scale factors such as employment, social contacts and health-seeking behaviours. Last stated 9 months ago
14 Jan 2026
KY
Kit Yates — holds since 2026-01-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: In providing care, there are no ideological sides — only the patient and what actually helps them. — tap to centre the map on it In providing care, there are no ideological sides — only the patient and what actually helps them. Last stated 3 weeks ago
12 Sept 2026
AA
Awais Aftab — holds since 2026-09-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Infectious diseases get far less industry R&D per death than non-communicable ones, because they mostly kill people in countries where a cure pays less. — tap to centre the map on it Infectious diseases get far less industry R&D per death than non-communicable ones, because they mostly kill people in countries where a cure pays less. Last stated a year ago
29 May 2025
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-05-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. — tap to centre the map on it "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. Last stated 10 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. Last stated 3 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. — tap to centre the map on it A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. Last stated 7 months ago
13 Mar 2026
DP
Dylan Patel — holds since 2026-03-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. — tap to centre the map on it A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. Last stated 4 weeks ago
3 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
At the centre
A true expert has a predictive model that works, and experts are under pressure from two directions
Holds Read this korrent →
Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful.
Holds
Between two graduates in any field, he would hire the one who is expert at using AI.
Holds
The person receiving advice usually knows more about their own situation than the person giving it does.
Holds
A language model can predict what a person would say but not what will happen, and only the second of those is a model of the world.
Holds
An AI agent's confidence that something will work is not evidence that it actually will.
Holds
Mixture-of-experts models can scale stably but begin to show fundamental limits as they are scaled further.
Holds
Experts stay highly aware of their own mistakes, and the people who stall at competence are the ones who move on and forget theirs.
Holds
A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance.
Holds
Higher male global TB burden may be in large part due to population-scale factors such as employment, social contacts and health-seeking behaviours.
Holds
In providing care, there are no ideological sides — only the patient and what actually helps them.
Holds
Infectious diseases get far less industry R&D per death than non-communicable ones, because they mostly kill people in countries where a cure pays less.
Holds
"Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next.
Holds
A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number.
Holds
A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from.
Holds
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it.
Holds
Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers.
Holds