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← Being predictably good is more difficult, and so more impressive, than being unpredictable.
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 12 Jun 2019 to 17 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under innovation
innovation
Everything filed under creativity
creativity
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under humility
humility
Everything filed under behavioural science
behavioural science
Everything filed under epidemiology
epidemiology
Everything filed under investing
investing
Everything filed under optimism
optimism Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Being predictably good is more difficult, and so more impressive, than being unpredictable. Being predictably good is more difficult, and so more impressive, than being unpredictable. Last stated 7 years ago
12 Jun 2019
SS
Steph Smith — holds since 2019-06-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Software is not uniquely unpredictable; other engineering disciplines are hit by the same surprises and overruns. — tap to centre the map on it Software is not uniquely unpredictable; other engineering disciplines are hit by the same surprises and overruns. Last stated 6 years ago
20 Jan 2021
HW
Hillel Wayne — holds since 2021-01-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The desire for predictability, among product people and senior executives alike, is powerful, deeply rooted and at odds with innovation and outcomes. — tap to centre the map on it The desire for predictability, among product people and senior executives alike, is powerful, deeply rooted and at odds with innovation and outcomes. Last stated 2 months ago
10 Sept 2026
MC
Marty Cagan — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean. — tap to centre the map on it The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean. Last stated 7 years ago
12 Oct 2019
DK
Daniel Kahneman — holds since 2019-10-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. — tap to centre the map on it The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. Last stated 4 years ago
30 Jun 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Coincidence and chance have less to do with good things happening to us than people might want to admit. — tap to centre the map on it Coincidence and chance have less to do with good things happening to us than people might want to admit. Last stated 2 months ago
25 Aug 2026
MF
Mario Fraioli — holds since 2026-08-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful. — tap to centre the map on it Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful. Last stated 4 months ago
13 Jul 2026
ZH
Zeke Hausfather — holds since 2026-07-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. — tap to centre the map on it A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: People may underrate the power of intuition and of deciding what they want the future to be. — tap to centre the map on it People may underrate the power of intuition and of deciding what they want the future to be. Last stated 2 months ago
30 Aug 2026
TS
Tara Seshan — holds since 2026-08-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Lots of anonymous people worked it out by trial and error" is never the real story of an invention: on closer investigation, identifiable people always turn out to be responsible. — tap to centre the map on it "Lots of anonymous people worked it out by trial and error" is never the real story of an invention: on closer investigation, identifiable people always turn out to be responsible. Last stated 3 years ago
25 Oct 2023
AH
Anton Howes — holds since 2023-10-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use. — tap to centre the map on it A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use. Last stated 5 months ago
2 Jun 2026
JJ
Justin Jackson — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A capability existing is not the same as a capability being absorbed: how fast a technology changes the world is not set by how fast the technology improves. — tap to centre the map on it A capability existing is not the same as a capability being absorbed: how fast a technology changes the world is not set by how fast the technology improves. Last stated 3 months ago
21 Jul 2026
RT
Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-07-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A contest between five paid firms is not the way to get good creative work. — tap to centre the map on it A contest between five paid firms is not the way to get good creative work. Last stated 3 months ago
14 Aug 2026
SK
Susan Kare — holds since 2026-08-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A culture that is uncompromising but also kind and supportive is the most fertile ground for creativity. — tap to centre the map on it A culture that is uncompromising but also kind and supportive is the most fertile ground for creativity. Last stated 7 months ago
12 Apr 2026
ES
Evan Spiegel — holds since 2026-04-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A feeling of responsibility is probably the greatest inhibitor of creativity; great ideas came from people not paid to have them — tap to centre the map on it A feeling of responsibility is probably the greatest inhibitor of creativity; great ideas came from people not paid to have them
IA
Isaac Asimov — holds since c. 1959 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. Last stated 10 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JL
Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. Last stated 4 months ago
15 Jul 2026
DH
Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. — tap to centre the map on it A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. Last stated a month ago
17 Sept 2026
PC
Patrick Collison — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Being predictably good is more difficult, and so more impressive, than being unpredictable.
Holds Read this korrent →
Software is not uniquely unpredictable; other engineering disciplines are hit by the same surprises and overruns.
Holds
The desire for predictability, among product people and senior executives alike, is powerful, deeply rooted and at odds with innovation and outcomes.
Holds
The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean.
Holds
The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously.
Holds
Coincidence and chance have less to do with good things happening to us than people might want to admit.
Holds
Strong agreement among forecast models does not by itself mean those models are skillful.
Holds
A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance.
Holds
People may underrate the power of intuition and of deciding what they want the future to be.
Holds
"Lots of anonymous people worked it out by trial and error" is never the real story of an invention: on closer investigation, identifiable people always turn out to be responsible.
Holds
A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use.
Holds
A capability existing is not the same as a capability being absorbed: how fast a technology changes the world is not set by how fast the technology improves.
Holds
A contest between five paid firms is not the way to get good creative work.
Holds
A culture that is uncompromising but also kind and supportive is the most fertile ground for creativity.
Holds
A feeling of responsibility is probably the greatest inhibitor of creativity; great ideas came from people not paid to have them
Last stated c. 1959
Holds
A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI.
Holds
A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to.
Holds
A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls.
Holds