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← Predictions should be less extreme than the information they rest on, an idea that is deeply counterintuitive

17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 14 Sept 2008 to 2 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under agency agency Everything filed under ambition ambition Everything filed under optimism optimism Everything filed under metascience metascience Everything filed under Trauma Trauma Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Predictions should be less extreme than the information they rest on, an idea that is deeply counterintuitive Predictions should be less extreme thanthe information they rest on, an idea thatis deeply counterintuitive DK Daniel Kahneman — holds since c. 2002–2003 — tap for who they are Same subject: In complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims — tap to centre the map on it In complex decisions exposed to fattails, decisions should not rest onstatistically based claims Last stated 18 years ago 14 Sept 2008 NT Nassim Nicholas Taleb — holds since 2008-09-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: Thinking harder about a decision has diminishing returns because reality is inherently unknowable. — tap to centre the map on it Thinking harder about a decision hasdiminishing returns because realityis inherently unknowable. Last stated 5 years ago 22 Feb 2022 NN Neel Nanda — holds since 2022-02-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: The stock of useful scientific knowledge is bounded rather than endless. — tap to centre the map on it The stock of useful scientificknowledge is bounded rather thanendless. Last stated 6 years ago 20 Jun 2020 JR José Luis Ricón — holds since 2020-06-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: It is human nature to overinterpret evidence, and the hardest part of science is not doing so. — tap to centre the map on it It is human nature to overinterpretevidence, and the hardest part ofscience is not doing so. Last stated 10 months ago 30 Nov 2025 GT Gary Taubes — holds since 2025-11-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: People tend to think they understand the future better than they actually do — tap to centre the map on it People tend to think they understandthe future better than they actuallydo Last stated 4 years ago 3 Mar 2023 MM Michael Mauboussin — holds since 2023-03-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: Being able to statistically predict what someone will say does not mean you understand them. — tap to centre the map on it Being able to statistically predictwhat someone will say does not meanyou understand them. Last stated 2 weeks ago 18 Sept 2026 CD Cory Doctorow — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: Overturned findings do not make knowledge entirely uncertain; we are approaching the truth asymptotically — tap to centre the map on it Overturned findings do not makeknowledge entirely uncertain; we areapproaching the truth asymptotically Last stated 4 days ago 29 Sept 2026 SA Samuel Arbesman — holds since 2026-09-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: Coming into a project with a guess about what the data will show has, again and again, turned out to be wrong. — tap to centre the map on it Coming into a project with a guessabout what the data will show has,again and again, turned out to bewrong. Last stated 5 months ago 8 May 2026 DR David Reich — holds since 2026-05-08 — tap for who they are Same subject: "If you're not growing, you're dying" is truer of the person than of the company. — tap to centre the map on it "If you're not growing, you'redying" is truer of the person thanof the company. Last stated 8 months ago 25 Jan 2026 JC Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: A common-sense utopia is much closer to the present day than it is to the best futures actually available to us. — tap to centre the map on it A common-sense utopia is much closerto the present day than it is to thebest futures actually available tous. Last stated a year ago 3 Aug 2025 WM William MacAskill — holds since 2025-08-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A company that looks to its users as though it has stopped shipping is usually widening its market, and grinding through that is worth it. — tap to centre the map on it A company that looks to its users asthough it has stopped shipping isusually widening its market, andgrinding through that is worth it. Last stated 2 years ago 23 Mar 2025 RV Rahul Vohra — holds since 2025-03-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: A glorious transhumanist future awaits us if we get AI right — tap to centre the map on it A glorious transhumanist futureawaits us if we get AI right Last stated yesterday 2 Oct 2026 HF Henry Farrell — holds since 2026-10-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: A lot of jobs will probably be created because of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A lot of jobs will probably becreated because of AI. Last stated 6 days ago 27 Sept 2026 MG Molly Graham — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI can have a significant positive impact on people's lives — tap to centre the map on it AI can have a significant positiveimpact on people's lives Last stated yesterday 2 Oct 2026 SA Scott Alexander — holds since 2026-10-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: A life spent in comfort, certainty and convenience is the most damning way a person can live. — tap to centre the map on it A life spent in comfort, certaintyand convenience is the most damningway a person can live. Last stated 6 days ago 27 Sept 2026 MP Maria Popova — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are Same subject: Agency and clock speed beat domain experience in a hire, and in a fast-moving field experience is often a crutch of habits that need discarding. — tap to centre the map on it Agency and clock speed beat domainexperience in a hire, and in afast-moving field experience isoften a crutch of habits that needdiscarding. Last stated 12 months ago 5 Oct 2025 AC Albert Cheng — holds since 2025-10-05 — tap for who they are Same subject: Agency is what makes a hire good: the willingness to take a task in a domain you know nothing about and have learned the whole thing a week later. — tap to centre the map on it Agency is what makes a hire good:the willingness to take a task in adomain you know nothing about andhave learned the whole thing a weeklater. Last stated 3 months ago 24 Jun 2026 NE NeetCode — holds since 2026-06-24 — tap for who they are
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At the centre Predictions should be less extreme than the information they rest on, an idea that is deeply counterintuitive Last stated c. 2002–2003 Holds Daniel Kahneman Read this korrent →