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← Thinking harder about a decision has diminishing returns because reality is inherently unknowable.
17 connected korrents · 16 moments on record from 22 Feb 2022 to 3 Sept 2026.
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Everything filed under market efficiency
market efficiency
Everything filed under economists
economists Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Thinking harder about a decision has diminishing returns because reality is inherently unknowable. Thinking harder about a decision has diminishing returns because reality is inherently unknowable. Last stated 5 years ago
22 Feb 2022
NN
Neel Nanda — holds since 2022-02-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Inference was never going to be the easy, cheap half of AI, because inference is thinking, and thinking is far harder than reading. — tap to centre the map on it Inference was never going to be the easy, cheap half of AI, because inference is thinking, and thinking is far harder than reading. Last stated 6 months ago
23 Mar 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-03-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: When a decision is called too complex to make, the real explanation is almost always weak leadership. — tap to centre the map on it When a decision is called too complex to make, the real explanation is almost always weak leadership. Last stated 2 months ago
2 Aug 2026
TV
Tom Verrilli — holds since 2026-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Pursuing efficiency pushes attention onto measurable factors and away from the psychological ones where the larger gains are available. — tap to centre the map on it Pursuing efficiency pushes attention onto measurable factors and away from the psychological ones where the larger gains are available. Last stated 9 months ago
9 Dec 2025
RS
Rory Sutherland — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Every action a person takes is the output of a reward-against-effort calculation the brain runs, and most of that calculation happens below awareness. — tap to centre the map on it Every action a person takes is the output of a reward-against-effort calculation the brain runs, and most of that calculation happens below awareness. Last stated 4 weeks ago
24 Aug 2026
MH
Masud Husain — holds since 2026-08-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: When two options are almost perfectly balanced the choice does not matter, and those are exactly the decisions people agonize over. — tap to centre the map on it When two options are almost perfectly balanced the choice does not matter, and those are exactly the decisions people agonize over. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little. — tap to centre the map on it Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little. Last stated 3 months ago
10 Jun 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Building the hardest feature in a product yields disproportionately greater returns than easier ones. — tap to centre the map on it Building the hardest feature in a product yields disproportionately greater returns than easier ones. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
JJ
Justin Jackson — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Competition that removes differentiation makes everyone worse off, because it assumes people already know what they want. — tap to centre the map on it Competition that removes differentiation makes everyone worse off, because it assumes people already know what they want. Last stated 9 months ago
9 Dec 2025
RS
Rory Sutherland — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. — tap to centre the map on it "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. Last stated 10 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. Last stated 3 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. — tap to centre the map on it A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. Last stated 6 months ago
13 Mar 2026
DP
Dylan Patel — holds since 2026-03-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. Last stated 3 weeks ago
3 Sept 2026
DR
Dax Raad — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A carmaker's claim to be the safest is mostly an artefact of comparing a new car against a fleet average twelve years old. — tap to centre the map on it A carmaker's claim to be the safest is mostly an artefact of comparing a new car against a fleet average twelve years old. Last stated 3 years ago
19 Dec 2023
PK
Philip Koopman — holds since 2023-12-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. — tap to centre the map on it A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. Last stated 6 months ago
1 Apr 2026
TP
Thuan Pham — holds since 2026-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel. — tap to centre the map on it A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel. Last stated 2 months ago
3 Aug 2026
DD
Dmitri Dolgov — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well. — tap to centre the map on it A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well. Last stated 10 months ago
17 Nov 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-11-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Building a realistic simulator is exactly as hard as building the agent, because the simulator is itself a large AI model. — tap to centre the map on it Building a realistic simulator is exactly as hard as building the agent, because the simulator is itself a large AI model. Last stated 2 months ago
3 Aug 2026
DD
Dmitri Dolgov — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Thinking harder about a decision has diminishing returns because reality is inherently unknowable.
Holds Read this korrent →
Inference was never going to be the easy, cheap half of AI, because inference is thinking, and thinking is far harder than reading.
Holds
When a decision is called too complex to make, the real explanation is almost always weak leadership.
Holds
Pursuing efficiency pushes attention onto measurable factors and away from the psychological ones where the larger gains are available.
Holds
Every action a person takes is the output of a reward-against-effort calculation the brain runs, and most of that calculation happens below awareness.
Holds
When two options are almost perfectly balanced the choice does not matter, and those are exactly the decisions people agonize over.
Holds
Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little.
Holds
Building the hardest feature in a product yields disproportionately greater returns than easier ones.
Holds
Competition that removes differentiation makes everyone worse off, because it assumes people already know what they want.
Holds
"Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next.
Holds
A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number.
Holds
A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from.
Holds
A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year.
Holds
A carmaker's claim to be the safest is mostly an artefact of comparing a new car against a fleet average twelve years old.
Holds
A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost.
Holds
A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel.
Holds
A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well.
Holds
Building a realistic simulator is exactly as hard as building the agent, because the simulator is itself a large AI model.
Holds