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← In complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims

17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 19 Aug 2004 to 17 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under ambition ambition Everything filed under surgical outcomes surgical outcomes Everything filed under motivation motivation Everything filed under health and fitness health and fitness Everything filed under behavioural science behavioural science Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: In complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims In complex decisions exposed to fat tails,decisions should not rest on statisticallybased claims Last stated 18 years ago 14 Sept 2008 NT Nassim Nicholas Taleb — holds since 2008-09-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: Predictions should be less extreme than the information they rest on, an idea that is deeply counterintuitive — tap to centre the map on it Predictions should be less extremethan the information they rest on,an idea that is deeplycounterintuitive DK Daniel Kahneman — holds since c. 2002–2003 — tap for who they are Same subject: Non-risk-adjusted mortality data cannot support patient choice and only signal that a fuller review is required. — tap to centre the map on it Non-risk-adjusted mortality datacannot support patient choice andonly signal that a fuller review isrequired. Last stated 22 years ago 19 Aug 2004 DS David Spiegelhalter — holds since 2004-08-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: Thinking harder about a decision has diminishing returns because reality is inherently unknowable. — tap to centre the map on it Thinking harder about a decision hasdiminishing returns because realityis inherently unknowable. Last stated 5 years ago 22 Feb 2022 NN Neel Nanda — holds since 2022-02-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: "There is no empirical evidence against my position" is not an argument for it. — tap to centre the map on it "There is no empirical evidenceagainst my position" is not anargument for it. Last stated 12 years ago 7 Nov 2014 DL Dan Luu — holds since 2014-11-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: Health optimisation has overshot: minimising a measured risk is not worth it if the cost is not having lived. — tap to centre the map on it Health optimisation has overshot:minimising a measured risk is notworth it if the cost is not havinglived. Last stated a month ago 26 Aug 2026 DH David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: If people are predictably irrational, maybe their decisions need help and sometimes their options need limiting — tap to centre the map on it If people are predictablyirrational, maybe their decisionsneed help and sometimes theiroptions need limiting Last stated 2 weeks ago 17 Sept 2026 DA Dan Ariely — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: Money decisions are fundamentally about emotion rather than numbers. — tap to centre the map on it Money decisions are fundamentallyabout emotion rather than numbers. Last stated 3 months ago 14 Jul 2026 JZ Jason Zweig — holds since 2026-07-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: Giving something 60-40 odds and being wrong is not itself a mistake. — tap to centre the map on it Giving something 60-40 odds andbeing wrong is not itself a mistake. Last stated 4 years ago 1 Feb 2023 SA Scott Alexander — holds since 2023-02-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: "If you're not growing, you're dying" is truer of the person than of the company. — tap to centre the map on it "If you're not growing, you'redying" is truer of the person thanof the company. Last stated 8 months ago 25 Jan 2026 JC Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: A common-sense utopia is much closer to the present day than it is to the best futures actually available to us. — tap to centre the map on it A common-sense utopia is much closerto the present day than it is to thebest futures actually available tous. Last stated a year ago 3 Aug 2025 WM William MacAskill — holds since 2025-08-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A company that looks to its users as though it has stopped shipping is usually widening its market, and grinding through that is worth it. — tap to centre the map on it A company that looks to its users asthough it has stopped shipping isusually widening its market, andgrinding through that is worth it. Last stated 2 years ago 23 Mar 2025 RV Rahul Vohra — holds since 2025-03-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: A persistently low safe interest rate signals that capital is not very productive at the margin, an underlying economic problem rather than a policy variable. — tap to centre the map on it A persistently low safe interestrate signals that capital is notvery productive at the margin, anunderlying economic problem ratherthan a policy variable. Last stated 4 years ago 1 Jun 2022 OB Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A single risk-adjusted summary of a surgeon's results risks giving spurious credibility to analyses that ignore non-patient influences. — tap to centre the map on it A single risk-adjusted summary of asurgeon's results risks givingspurious credibility to analysesthat ignore non-patient influences. Last stated 22 years ago 19 Aug 2004 DS David Spiegelhalter — holds since 2004-08-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: A surgeon's performance cannot be separated from that of the institution because quality depends heavily on institutional systems. — tap to centre the map on it A surgeon's performance cannot beseparated from that of theinstitution because quality dependsheavily on institutional systems. Last stated 22 years ago 19 Aug 2004 DS David Spiegelhalter — holds since 2004-08-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: A drop in agency is the earliest sign of burnout, arriving before you consciously notice you are burning out. — tap to centre the map on it A drop in agency is the earliestsign of burnout, arriving before youconsciously notice you are burningout. Last stated 3 years ago 10 Jan 2024 CH Cate Hall — holds since 2024-01-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: A founder who picks an idea because the market wants it will give up, because nobody can persist at something that was never important to them. — tap to centre the map on it A founder who picks an idea becausethe market wants it will give up,because nobody can persist atsomething that was never importantto them. Last stated 2 years ago 19 Jun 2024 AS Aravind Srinivas — holds since 2024-06-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: A habit only survives difficulty if the person enjoys it, which makes enjoyment a better predictor of persistence than discipline. — tap to centre the map on it A habit only survives difficulty ifthe person enjoys it, which makesenjoyment a better predictor ofpersistence than discipline. Last stated 9 months ago 1 Jan 2026 JC James Clear — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
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At the centre In complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims Last stated 14 Sept 2008 · 18 years ago Holds Nassim Nicholas Taleb Read this korrent →