korrents

korrents · Lenny's Podcast

AI predictions: Job markets, Codex beats Claude, and the death of org charts | Dan Shipper

Dan Shipper · 1h 34m · youtube.com

24 korrents from this recording

1h
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Every claim below is a statement made in this recording, quoted word for word and linked to the second it was said, so you can hear it rather than take our word for it. The wording comes from the transcript published alongside the recording; the sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording.

  1. 0:00:40 · watch on youtube.com

    What models do in general is they make yesterday's human competence cheap. And so, it becomes commoditized. It's not valuable anymore. What humans do is we go in there and we're like, "Yeah, we have all this frozen human competence from yesterday. How do I use this like make something new and interesting?"
  2. 0:00:57 · watch on youtube.com

    It's going to bifurcate in two main ways. One is everyone's going to have at least one agent that they talk to, that they can offload work to.
  3. 11 min later
  4. 0:12:05 · watch on youtube.com

    The second is that most of the work that you do is actually going to happen on your computer in an environment like Codex or Cloud Co-work that becomes the sort of operating system for it becomes the sort of operating system for how how you do all of your work, whether that's your email, the documents you create, like all that kind of stuff.
  5. 2 min later
  6. 0:13:44 · watch on youtube.com

    And I have completely flipped. And I I really think that uh the the model for now is going to be a super agent, like one agent for the entire company.
  7. 1 min later
  8. 0:14:44 · watch on youtube.com

    in order for an AI agent to be useful right now, it really needs a human who cares about it. It really needs it like a human personal connection with someone who's like watching what it does and make sure that it's doing the right thing and that it's useful for people.
  9. 6 min later
  10. 0:21:03 · watch on youtube.com

    but I I think Codex right now is my daily driver. I like spend all all my time in it basically.
  11. 3 min later
  12. 0:24:24 · watch on youtube.com

    When I run the agent on that website, I'm using my tokens. I'm not using the the vendor's tokens. I'm not using the app's tokens.
  13. 2 min later
  14. 0:26:08 · watch on youtube.com

    And I think that Cursor has at least so far more distinctly chosen a lane. Like they're more distinctly choosing to be a for programmers. And that may limit how far they get in here.
  15. 6 min later
  16. 0:31:56 · watch on youtube.com

    And when you move into an actual UI for this, you start to realize um we made GUIs for a reason. And it's just nicer to be in a GUI.
  17. 2 min later
  18. 0:33:45 · watch on youtube.com

    And I really do think that two agents are better than one. So, what's a good example? When I have Codex interact with another agent, it can give so much more context about me and what I want than I would be able to type.
  19. 3 min later
  20. 0:37:07 · watch on youtube.com

    So, this is another good prediction. I would buy SAS stocks right now.
  21. 1 min later
  22. 0:38:17 · watch on youtube.com

    And I think that what agents do is increase the number of users of SAS. Not get rid of it.
  23. 1 min later
  24. 0:39:13 · watch on youtube.com

    Automation is a lie. Um in the sense that every time you automate something, in order to make sure the automation is working well, you need a human on top of it like making sure that it's working well.
  25. 3 min later
  26. 0:42:37 · watch on youtube.com

    GPT 5.5 is the only model though that has the sense of agency and confidence to just like rip out old code and just like actually rewrite from first principles.
  27. 2 min later
  28. 0:44:22 · watch on youtube.com

    Here's a prediction. I'm pretty sure every coding model on the market will still do this in a year. Every coding model on the market will take that instruction seriously.
  29. 1 min later
  30. 0:45:11 · watch on youtube.com

    And so I think it's it's really important uh when when we think about benchmark progress to think about it from that perspective, which is benchmarks rise on problems that we've framed that we can articulate, that we can score. And there's a lot of work that's human work that uh it it can't be scored until you write it down
  31. 9 min later
  32. 0:53:51 · watch on youtube.com

    And the thing that is becoming really clear is the whole forward deployed engineer concept I think is for real. And it comes out of every agent needs a human.
  33. 6 min later
  34. 0:59:25 · watch on youtube.com

    My experience is that your company's only going to go as far as your CEO goes in AI and it's not something you can delegate.
  35. 4 min later
  36. 1:03:11 · watch on youtube.com

    I think that we will be reading way more AI generated writing in documents and emails and we will like it.
  37. 7 min later
  38. 1:09:46 · watch on youtube.com

    But the coding models have gotten good enough that he can pair the kind of the technical knowledge he does have with his really spiky product sense and sense for writing and sense for users.
  39. 2 min later
  40. 1:11:50 · watch on youtube.com

    And what you see when we work with them internally is now they're just like they're just making pull pull requests. Like they don't they don't need to hand it off as much. Sometimes they do but like a lot of times they just make pull requests and it's like the thing is built and that's it and I think that's incredible for the way that companies work
  41. 2 min later
  42. 1:13:31 · watch on youtube.com

    But the like mass unemployment thing I think that like some AI CEOs are talking about like I think that's not going to happen.
  43. 3 min later
  44. 1:16:23 · watch on youtube.com

    And I think that is actually super important. Um the only thing you need to do is ride the models. And that means use them for whatever it is that you do.
  45. 2 min later
  46. 1:18:41 · watch on youtube.com

    I think people think of the edge of AI as being in San Francisco. And I actually don't think that that's where it is. I think the edge of AI is wherever AI meets like a real human doing something.