Outcomes follow power laws, and outlier math rules all.
Nabeel S. Qureshi by Entrepreneur and essayist Understand power laws. Outlier math rules all. Principlesnabeelqu.co · by 10 May 2023
Their wordsUnderstand power laws. Outlier math rules all.
Power laws
In many things a few cases account for most of the result, so the average misleads and the outlier decides.
Who thinks with this
Nassim Nicholas TalebAlbert-László BarabásiBen CarlsonBill GurleyBrian PotterJamie DimonMike KriegerNabeel S. QureshiRéka AlbertRory Sutherland
Venture capital investing is a power-law strategy where a small number of big winners are expected to make up for many losses.
Ben Carlson Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz… Venture capital is a power law strategy by design. The hope is 1-2 big winners make up for all of the other losers. Can You Be a Boglehead Tech Investor?awealthofcommonsense.com · 24 Sept 2026All korrents from this piece
Their wordsVenture capital is a power law strategy by design. The hope is 1-2 big winners make up for all of the other losers.
Marketing returns are fat-tailed, so paying for marketing by the hour misprices work whose value comes from a small fraction of it.
Rory Sutherland Rory Sutherland is vice chairman of Ogilvy UK the reason it's a catastrophic way to be paid my argument is that marketing is actually fat tailed so is innovation R&D pharmaceutical research science okay in other words 5 to 10% of what you do delivers perhaps 110% of the value Marketing Expert: The Playbook Behind Every Great Campaign | Rory Sutherlandyoutube.com · 9 Dec 2025 · 0:59:20 into the videoAll korrents from this video
Their wordsthe reason it's a catastrophic way to be paid my argument is that marketing is actually fat tailed so is innovation R&D pharmaceutical research science okay in other words 5 to 10% of what you do delivers perhaps 110% of the value
Most apparent trends in American housing are the Bay Area in disguise: a handful of outlier metros drive the correlations people quote.
Brian Potter Structural engineer and writer In general, housing trends are largely driven by a small number of outlier metros. Is There a Housing Shortage or Not?construction-physics.com · 11 May 2022All korrents from this piece
Their wordsIn general, housing trends are largely driven by a small number of outlier metros.
Large real-world networks share one property: the number of connections per node follows a scale-free power law.
Albert-László Barabási Network scientist at Northeastern University A common property of many large networks is that the vertex connectivities follow a scale-free power-law distribution. Barabasi & Albert, "Emergence of scaling in random networks" (arXiv)arxiv.org · 21 Oct 1999All korrents from this piece
Their wordsA common property of many large networks is that the vertex connectivities follow a scale-free power-law distribution.
Réka Albert Professor of physics and biology at Penn State A common property of many large networks is that the vertex connectivities follow a scale-free power-law distribution. Barabasi & Albert, "Emergence of scaling in random networks" (arXiv)arxiv.org · 21 Oct 1999All korrents from this piece
Their wordsA common property of many large networks is that the vertex connectivities follow a scale-free power-law distribution.
With no typical event under fat tails, prediction markets are ludicrous because they make events look binary
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Former option trader and risk analyst This absence of "typical" event in Extremistan is what makes prediction markets ludicrous, as they make events look binary. The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008)edge.org · 14 Sept 2008All korrents from this piece
Their wordsThis absence of "typical" event in Extremistan is what makes prediction markets ludicrous, as they make events look binary.
Tab usage in a product follows a very strong power law.
Mike Krieger Works in Anthropic Labs; co-founder of Instagram there's a very strong power law in tab usage. Why Claude can’t be your PM (yet) | Anthropic CPO Panel (Lenny & Friends Summit, San Francisco, 10 September 2026)youtube.com · 10 Sept 2026 · 26:23 into the videoAll korrents from this video
Their wordsthere's a very strong power law in tab usage.
A bank should be managed against the fat tails it can imagine, not against the stress test its regulator hands it.
Jamie Dimon Chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase And so, I always look what I call the fat tails and manage that we can handle all the all the fat tails. And not the stress test the Fed gives us, but all the fat tails. The Jamie Dimon Interview: How JP Morgan Became an $800 Billion Bankyoutube.com · 16 Jul 2025 · 0:22:06 into the videoAll korrents from this video
Their wordsAnd so, I always look what I call the fat tails and manage that we can handle all the all the fat tails. And not the stress test the Fed gives us, but all the fat tails.
Investors have collectively absorbed the idea of increasing returns and power laws, and that belief is what makes them take ever more risk.
Bill Gurley General partner at Benchmark Capital for over two decades the investor community writ large has slowly become aware of and believes it strongly in increasing returns and power laws. And so over time, if they all believe that, they're going to be more willing to invest on the come and take risk. Mental Models That Change How You Think | Bill Gurleyyoutube.com · 9 Jun 2026 · 0:26:01 into the videoAll korrents from this video
Their wordsthe investor community writ large has slowly become aware of and believes it strongly in increasing returns and power laws. And so over time, if they all believe that, they're going to be more willing to invest on the come and take risk.
In complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims
Mental modelProbabilistic thinking
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Former option trader and risk analyst Here is where your limits are. Do not base your decisions on statistically based claims. The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008)edge.org · 14 Sept 2008All korrents from this piece
Their wordsHere is where your limits are. Do not base your decisions on statistically based claims.