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Is There a Housing Shortage or Not?

Brian Potter · 11 May 2022 · construction-physics.com

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Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. If there’s one thing to take away from this essay, it's that you can’t infer a housing shortage by looking at housing construction rates in isolation.
  2. So, historical evidence suggests that the US is short at least several million housing units.
  3. There is essentially zero correlation - the metros with the largest rent increases had added population / added housing ratios no different than metros with smaller rent increases.
  4. The more restrictions on land use, the higher rents you see.
  5. There’s a reasonable amount of evidence that housing prices tend to adjust to match regional incomes.
  6. In general, housing trends are largely driven by a small number of outlier metros.