Mental Models That Change How You Think | Bill Gurley

Bill Gurley · 1h 01m · youtube.com ↗

16 korrents from this recording

Bill Gurley did not write this page.

Every claim below is a statement made in this recording, quoted word for word and linked to the second it was said, so you can hear it rather than take our word for it. The wording comes from the transcript published alongside the recording; the sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording.

0:00:26 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Complex systems are multivariable and nonlinear, so they can behave one way for years and then switch when a single variable changes.

Their wordsI would describe complex systems as multivariable nonlinear systems. And multivariable nonlinear systems are very hard to predict. They can behave one way for a long time and then one variable can switch and they can behave another way.

Interesting
1 min later
0:01:49 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Optimising a single metric is a trap, because the second-order consequences of the change only surface much later.

Their wordsyou got to be really conscious of the consequence and not get too deterministic about a single metric or a single variable and know what's important and what's on top.

Interesting
5 min later
0:06:38 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Information is more fragmented than ever and simultaneously more available than ever, and language models widen that access further.

Their wordsWe do live in a world where information is really cut up, but we also live in a world where you can have access to more information than you ever could. And that's even more true now with LLMs.

Interesting
2 min later
0:09:04 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Obsessive continuous learning is the common trait among entrepreneurs, because the disruptions they exploit sit on a moving edge.

Their wordsa more common trait that's related in the entrepreneurial world is obsessive learning like constant learning because the disruptions that allow for the technology waves that allow for companies to be disruptive and take market share from an incumbent are all tied to something dynamic that's happening on the edge.

Interesting
2 min later
0:10:59 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Knowing both the deep history of a field and its bleeding edge is what makes someone genuinely differentiated in it.

Their wordsI'm suggesting you should understand the really old stuff, the history, because it's differentiating and shows a passion and it gives you a great frame of mind, but you also want to really understand the new edge. If you do both of those things, like you're I think you're a power player in your field, you know.

Interesting
3 min later
0:13:56 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Costly and burdensome AI regulation would entrench an oligopoly, which is why some incumbents are asking to be regulated.

Their wordsthe regulation gets extremely difficult and mundane and expensive that could actually lead to more igopoly and I think some of the players know that and are begging for regulation.

Interesting
1 min later
0:15:16 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
An open-source model ecosystem innovates faster than a closed one, because every participant learns from the others' work.

Their wordsthe competitive dynamic in China is more intense because it's more intense. Everyone's chosen to go open source and that creates a system that in my mind is capable of innovating far faster than the competitive system we have here. All the models learn from one another.

Interesting
11 min later
0:26:01 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Investors have collectively absorbed the idea of increasing returns and power laws, and that belief is what makes them take ever more risk.

Their wordsthe investor community writ large has slowly become aware of and believes it strongly in increasing returns and power laws. And so over time, if they all believe that, they're going to be more willing to invest on the come and take risk.

Interesting
3 min later
0:28:56 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Burn rate is a measure of risk, and preemptive rounds push successful companies to raise it whether or not they need to.

Their wordsLook, first of all, if a company's successful, someone will knock on your door and try and give you more money. So, like almost every round is preemptive for successful companies. And when you take that much money, $300 million, the only way to spend it is to take your burn rate up. And I always thought of burn rate as a measure of risk.

Interesting
3 min later
0:32:05 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
The IPO process is unfair to companies because bankers pick both the price and the shareholders, where an anonymous auction would do the job.

Their wordsI think it is insanely unfair to the companies the way they're forced to go through this process where the bankers pick the price and pick the shareholders. There's just no need to do that. If you took a freshman computer science student and a freshman finance student and said, you know, imagine how a company should go public. They would match supply and demand anonymously like you would in any auction.

Interesting
6 min later
0:38:22 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Card payments cost two to three percent because of how the industry is structured, not because moving money has to cost that much.

Their wordsthe whole industry is is kind of stuck in this world where they make a lot of money because it is this way. But there's zero reason why it should cost 2 or 3%. Just zero.

Interesting
4 min later
0:42:11 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
A pay package that pays nothing unless the stock rises enormously is a good deal for shareholders, and most chief executives would refuse it.

Their wordsI would agree to that type of package for every company I've ever worked with, and most CEOs wouldn't take it. Uh, it basically says you don't make money unless the stock goes way up. And if you stock goes way up, you make an obscene amount of money. And I would do that deal over and over and over and over again.

Interesting
1 min later
0:42:48 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Proxy advisers judge companies by rule-compliance rather than shareholder interest, because they grew out of fraud prevention.

Their wordsthey started from a place of corporate governance where they were looking out for fraud. And so so risk mitigation rather than shareholder interest. And so when you come at it from that perspective, you're like, there should be rules and people should adhere to the rules and when people get outside of the rules, that's bad.

Interesting
5 min later
0:47:41 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Publishing what you know about a field draws the people working in it toward you, so writing becomes a calling card.

Their wordsin the venture world, for the founder that doesn't know you, when they see your knowledge on a subject or they see what you're talking about in their own business, they reach out to you. So, it becomes a calling card.

Interesting
1 min later
0:48:27 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Someone who is not already product-first almost never becomes good at product afterwards.

Their wordsit probably took my whole career for me to fully understand how hard it is to hire someone who's not a product first individual and then get them to be good at it. I'm sure there there are examples, but it's got to be 5% or less of the use case.

Interesting
11 min later
0:59:02 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Venture capital bends toward the young, because the work is a hustle and later-life obligations cap how many hours anyone can give it.

Their wordsI think the the whole industry bends towards youth for that reason and because it's a hustle business like there there's there's always a rock you haven't looked under and you know age brings children and homes and and and other requirements you get tied to and responsibilities and you're just not able to go spend 80 hours a week studying YouTube like you just can't.

Interesting