The Knowledge Project

All 26 from this episode, along the running time →

Our reading — their words are on the recording

0:02:43
Our reading
The computing industry does not know its own history, so it discards the great lessons of its pioneers and has to rediscover them over and over.
Their wordsThis matters I think because we we we we discard great lessons and have to rediscover them over and over and over again.
0:04:24
Our reading
Abandoning skeuomorphism for flat interfaces after Steve Jobs left was a mistake: software lost its analogy to the real world.
Their wordsthe moment he was out of the picture, everything became flat, right? And we lost sort of even uh shadows and verticality and so on. It looked potentially better design ages but like we lost the analogy. Okay. So I think this was a mistake.
design
0:05:15
Our reading
Bing's Sydney, not ChatGPT, was the first truly fantastic chatbot.
Their wordsthe earliest chatbot that was really actually fantastic wasn't chat GPT but actually Sydney which was powered by Bing
LLMs OpenAI chat interfaces
0:14:14
Our reading
Machines cannot take responsibility, which is the most overlooked limit of AI; humans take responsibility and machines can only inform them.
Their wordsMachines can't take responsibility. And I think this is actually probably most overlooked thing in the entire um uh stack. Humans take responsibility. machines can help us um take more responsibility because they can inform us better.
AI alignment
0:14:45
Our reading
The ideal environment for decisions is a human-in-the-loop decision surface, not a machine that makes the call.
Their wordsCreating human invaloop decision surfaces is uh a way to I think describe the ideal environment.
0:16:17
Our reading
With AI, the failure mode of lazy work is no longer too little output but too much.
Their wordsNow um of of of lazy work is not lack of output. It's actually over output.
LLMs AI slop

Bill GurleyGeneral partner at Benchmark Capital for over two decades; was the lead analyst on Amazon's IPO before moving into venture capital. Writes Above the Crowd on tech and marketplace economics.9 Jun 2026 · 1h 01m · 16 korrentsOn startups and venture capital

Mental Models That Change How You Think | Bill Gurley

Bill Gurley

Our reading — their words are on the recording

0:00:26
Our reading
Complex systems are multivariable and nonlinear, so they can behave one way for years and then switch when a single variable changes.
Their wordsI would describe complex systems as multivariable nonlinear systems. And multivariable nonlinear systems are very hard to predict. They can behave one way for a long time and then one variable can switch and they can behave another way.
0:01:49
Our reading
Optimising a single metric is a trap, because the second-order consequences of the change only surface much later.
Their wordsyou got to be really conscious of the consequence and not get too deterministic about a single metric or a single variable and know what's important and what's on top.
mental models
0:06:38
Our reading
Information is more fragmented than ever and simultaneously more available than ever, and language models widen that access further.
Their wordsWe do live in a world where information is really cut up, but we also live in a world where you can have access to more information than you ever could. And that's even more true now with LLMs.
LLMs
0:09:04
Our reading
Obsessive continuous learning is the common trait among entrepreneurs, because the disruptions they exploit sit on a moving edge.
Their wordsa more common trait that's related in the entrepreneurial world is obsessive learning like constant learning because the disruptions that allow for the technology waves that allow for companies to be disruptive and take market share from an incumbent are all tied to something dynamic that's happening on the edge.
startups
0:10:59
Our reading
Knowing both the deep history of a field and its bleeding edge is what makes someone genuinely differentiated in it.
Their wordsI'm suggesting you should understand the really old stuff, the history, because it's differentiating and shows a passion and it gives you a great frame of mind, but you also want to really understand the new edge. If you do both of those things, like you're I think you're a power player in your field, you know.
0:13:56
Our reading
Costly and burdensome AI regulation would entrench an oligopoly, which is why some incumbents are asking to be regulated.
Their wordsthe regulation gets extremely difficult and mundane and expensive that could actually lead to more igopoly and I think some of the players know that and are begging for regulation.

Mark PincusFounder and former CEO of Zynga, the social-games company behind FarmVille, Zynga Poker and Words with Friends, and before that of Freeloader, Support.com and Tribe.net.2 Jun 2026 · 1h 09m · 16 korrentsOn management and startups

FarmVille Creator: The Hidden Path to Successful Products

Mark Pincus

Our reading — their words are on the recording

0:00:21
Our reading
Great consumer products work because they answer a human instinct or need that was already being felt but was unexpressed and unmet.
Their wordsI think great products in the consumer world speak to us on some deep level. They they speak to some human instinct or need that we've been feeling and it's been unexpressed or unmet. When we first experience that, there's something magical to it that it could be an unlock. And lots of times it's it's where we're most cynical that we're ready for the most magic.
product management
0:12:32
Our reading
A person should run their own life strategically, choosing each year by what their future self would thank them for doing.
Their wordsI think that a practice like the book of life, what it's done for me and I think it could do for a lot of people is just be strategic about your life. Like be thoughtful about like I like say what would your future self thank you for doing this year. We can be strategic, hold ourselves accountable and and force ourselves to make some tougher decisions.
0:14:17
Our reading
Founders who fail early tend to attach themselves to that failure and start being defined by it, and the line between success and failure on a first company is very fine.
Their wordsI I definitely think I'm so aware of the fine line between success and failure, especially on your first company. And and and it's so it pains me how much founders and es especially I see it in men, not all men. And I have four sisters and a bunch of daughters. But I would say I see it in a lot in men and and friends, college friends, people I've grown up with that if they had an initial failure, if they had failures, they get attached to it and they start feeling defined by it
startups
0:15:07
Our reading
A founder has to run on what if everything goes right; starting from what if everything goes wrong is playing defense and losing before the start.
Their wordsAnd I don't know how you're going to get yourself there, but you've got to be in this place that you're thinking, you're also thinking, "What if everything goes right? What does right look like? How am I ready for everything going right?" If we're starting with what if everything goes wrong, you're playing defense and you've lost before you're even out of the gates.
startups
0:25:48
Our reading
Users vote with their clicks, and roughly half of them are lost at every click a product asks for.
Their wordsThey vote with their clicks. You lose at least half your users every click. Every time you say click here, half people don't click. And you lose 80% when you say download this. At least that's probably 90 or more. 90% or more in the app store.
design
0:29:47
Our reading
Every founder falls into a structureless period after a company ends, and it is a dark place that seems to offer freedom before it starts to feel permanent.
Their wordsThe way I think of the abyss is it's this place that we go to as founders and entrepreneurs after our thing, after it dies or it's bought or it's over for whatever reason. It's this amorphous place that we are in our life that has no structure.

James ClearWriter on habits and decision-making; author of Atomic Habits and the 3-2-1 newsletter, and publisher of long-running book recommendation lists.1 Jan 2026 · 2h 13m · 16 korrentsOn behavioural science, ambition and motivation

The Silent Cost of Bad Habits | James Clear

James Clear

Our reading — their words are on the recording

0:01:34
Our reading
Habits stick because every repetition casts a vote for an identity, not because of the outcome any single repetition produces.
Their wordsSo one of the core lessons of atomic habits is that every action you take is like a vote for the type of person you wish to become. So, when you show up at the gym today, you are casting a vote for being the type of person who doesn't miss workouts. When you sit down and make one sales call, you are casting a vote for being a salesperson. When you write one sentence, you are casting a vote for being a writer. And no, doing one push-up does not transform your body, but it does cast a vote for that identity.
motivation
0:03:05
Our reading
Belief and behavior run in both directions, so the more reliable way to change what someone believes about themselves is to act first.
Their wordsbehavior and belief is like two-way street. You know, what you believe will influence the actions that you take, but the actions that you take can also influence what you believe about yourself. And you know, every time you show up and do it in some small way, you prove to yourself a little bit, hey, maybe I am that kind of person. And so, my encouragement, my suggestion is to let the behavior lead the way.
behavioural science
0:04:32
Our reading
Small changes only compound when they are oriented toward a larger outcome; otherwise they evaporate rather than accumulate.
Their wordsare your small actions accumulating or are they evaporating? You know, are you doing small things each day that are oriented toward a larger outcome or are you doing small things each day that are just kind of like one-offs and don't really add up? In a lot of ways, I feel like the two time frames that matter most in life are 10 years and 1 hour
ambition
0:06:20
Our reading
Effort that produces no visible improvement is being stored rather than wasted, because results arrive at a threshold instead of steadily.
Their wordsthat work is not being wasted. It's just being stored. You know, it's kind of like complaining about heating an ice cube up a little bit and it not melting yet. It's like, well, you just haven't hit the phase transition. So, but that's where people give up.
ambition motivation
0:11:10
Our reading
The reliable method is to run many small experiments, commit fully to whatever works, and keep at it until it stops working.
Their wordsTry a number of things, right? So, experiment with a number of things. Run a number of small experiments. Once you find something that works, double down on it and then keep doing it until it stops working, which is the step that a lot of people skip. Um, and then once it stops working, go back to the start and try a lot of small experiments again.
ambition
0:15:19
Our reading
Behavior is governed by the surroundings, so a good habit only holds when it is the path of least resistance in the rooms a person occupies.
Their wordsYou want to you want to be able to walk into the rooms that you're in each day, and the good habit is the path of least resistance. It's the easiest thing to do. And a lot of the time you walk into rooms and it's the distractions that are easier to do and you feel like you're swimming upstream and trying to fight your environment to make a change happen.
behavioural science

Rory SutherlandRory Sutherland is vice chairman of Ogilvy UK, where he helped found the agency's behavioural science practice. He wrote Alchemy: The Dark Art and Curious Science of Creating Magic in Brands, Business and Life, and writes a column for The Spectator.9 Dec 2025 · 2h 00m · 16 korrentsOn behavioural science and management

Marketing Expert: The Playbook Behind Every Great Campaign | Rory Sutherland

Rory Sutherland

Our reading — their words are on the recording

0:01:50
Our reading
People cannot choose without comparison, so an AI that hands over one perfect answer will not satisfy them.
Their wordspeople don't decide like that at the very least you'll have to show them three or four or five skiing holidays from which they choose because we can't really choose in the absence of comparison.
behavioural science
0:03:56
Our reading
Pursuing efficiency pushes attention onto measurable factors and away from the psychological ones where the larger gains are available.
Their wordsBut when you pursue efficiency generally you start looking at numerical or mechanical factors and of course in the process you disregard psychological factors where the greater gains may be found and so you focus too heavily on cost reduction and too little on value creation.
management
0:05:30
Our reading
Cutting a job defined by its narrowest function destroys the tacit value that job was quietly creating.
Their wordsthe dorman was doing multiple things, many of which were human and kind of tacit. Security would be one. You know, there are no vagrants to sleep in the doorway, hailing taxis, dealing with luggage, recognizing regular guests, providing status to the hotel. There are loads and loads of value creation components to that dorman which aren't captured in the open the door definition.
management
0:09:05
Our reading
Companies would often be better off moving a tenth to a fifth of their marketing budget into paying call centre staff properly.
Their wordsprobably 50% of the time, I would advise to a client, take 10 to 20% of your marketing budget and spend it on upgrading the call center. Pay the people too much. Get the best practitioners.
0:09:46
Our reading
People judge an organisation by the humans they deal with, because judging other people is the task evolution equipped them for.
Their wordsWe don't really have much evolved experience in evaluating postal efficiency, do we? Okay, we have quart of a million half a million years of evolved experience in deciding who to like and trust because for most of our evolutionary, you know, existence, that was one of the most fi five most important questions to get right.
behavioural science evolutionary biology
0:28:30
Our reading
Publicly traded companies are incentivised to behave like psychopaths, because they are optimised for short-term transactions rather than long-term relationships.
Their wordsPLC's or um uh or or companies on the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange are incentivized to behave like psychopaths because they're optimized around short-term transactional value, not long-term relationship building.
capitalism

Benedict EvansTechnology analyst whose weekly email on tech reaches over 150,000 readers. Publishes essays and an annual presentation on where the industry is going.2 Sept 2025 · 1h 11m · 16 korrentsOn LLMs, chat interfaces and government

Why Everyone Is Wrong About AI (Including You) | Benedict Evans

Benedict Evans

Our reading — their words are on the recording

0:01:39
Our reading
Another platform shift, not a break in history: the new technology will be built on for ten or fifteen years, then something else will replace it.
Their wordsMy sort of base case is to say this is kind of another platform shift and all the new stuff will be built around this for the next 10 or 15 years and then there'll be something else and so the impact on employment will be kind of like the impact on employment from the other platform shifts
AI and jobs
0:03:40
Our reading
Being certain a technology matters tells you almost nothing about where its value will end up being captured.
Their wordsIt wasn't clear that the browser wasn't where the value capture was cuz Microsoft crowbarred its way into dominance in browsers but that turned out not to matter and then all the value is in search advertising and social which were 5 years later and 10 years later and so like you can be very very clear that this is the thing and then still be completely unclear how it's going to work.
0:06:08
Our reading
Incumbents have looked unbeatable at the start of every previous platform shift and have still lost.
Their wordsI'm pretty sure people thought Microsoft had an advantage on the internet and Google and um Meta had an advantage on mobile and everyone thought IBM was going to win PCs. Like once IBM made a PC, that was it. It's all over now. And we kind of forget that like there were PCs before and then IBM made one and that kind of became the standard but then IBM lost it.
0:09:27
Our reading
What destroyed Kodak was not missing digital photography but that digital cameras were an undifferentiated low-margin commodity.
Their wordsfilm was this high margin product where they had a bunch of unique intellectual property and digital cameras are a low margin um commodity where they were competing with the entire consumer electronics industry with no differentiation.
innovation
0:12:07
Our reading
Proprietary data is not an advantage in training large language models, because no company's holdings are large enough to matter.
Their wordsI think it's actually the opposite which is that everyone's kind of using the same data which is you need such an enormous amount of generalized text that the amount that Google has or that meta has is not actually enough to move to be a kind of fundamental difference in what you can train with.
LLMs
0:15:02
Our reading
Studies showing a language model behaving badly prove nothing, because the model was asked to produce that behaviour.
Their wordsyou write murder is good on a piece of paper and you put it in a photocopier and you press go and you say my god the machine says murder's good. Well, no, you told the machine to say that. And that's what these anthropic studies are. They're basically you tell the machine to say a thing and then it says it like well you haven't proved anything.
LLMs

Morgan HouselWhat You Need to Master (And Avoid) to Get Rich, Stay Rich, and Build WealthPartner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money. Writes short essays about how people actually behave with money, rather than about what markets will do next.28 May 2024 · 1h 34m · 12 korrentsOn investing, agency and patience

Morgan Housel: What You Need to Master (And Avoid) to Get Rich, Stay Rich, and Build Wealth

Morgan Housel

Our reading — their words are on the recording

0:04:28
Our reading
If something can be done to change the odds of an outcome, it is not luck by definition; luck is what is truly outside one's control, such as where and when one is born.
Their wordsif you can can do something that changes your odds of an outcome it's not luck by definition luck to me the biggest are where and when you were born you can't control it
agency
0:06:37
Our reading
When luck is separated from skill, the part to pay most attention to is what is repeatable: what someone could do again.
Their wordsyou want to find what is repeatable and what you could do again and those are the things you should just pay the most attention to
agency
0:09:18
Our reading
Susceptibility to FOMO, especially in markets inflamed by social media, leaves little hope of building wealth over time.
Their wordsparticularly in modern markets that can get so crazy with social media and Reddit and Twitter and everything if you if you are susceptible to fomo there's no hope for you over time
social media investing
0:11:21
Our reading
An investor with a 20-, 30- or 50-year game should not take cues from people playing a different game, such as trading for the next quarter, and that is where much of investing's danger comes from.
Their wordsmy game is is different I think your game is different most people's game might be a little bit different and what's important is that if your game is to invest for the next 20 30 50 years that you're not taking your cues from people who are playing a different game of trading for the next quarter and that's where a lot of danger and investing comes from
patience investing
0:14:05
Our reading
Because stock returns are concentrated in a few winners that are very hard to know in advance, owning the whole index guarantees owning whichever ones turn out to be the drivers.
Their wordsit's always the case that it's very taal driven the distribution of returns and owning the index just guarantees that whatever is going to be the next driver I own because it's extremely difficult to know what those are going to be
stock market investing
0:14:59
Our reading
In investing, extra effort tends to correlate negatively with results for the vast majority of people, with some exceptions such as Renaissance Technologies.
Their wordsinvesting is one of the very few Endeavors in life where the harder you try the worse you're probably going to do and yes there are exceptions to that Renaissance Technologies of course you you you can name the exceptions for people who tried very hard and did very well but for the vast majority of people there's going to be a negative correlation between the effort you put into it and the results that you got out of it
investing

#105 · Seth Godin"Failure is Learning on Your Way to Mastery" and Other Advice for Creativity (The Knowledge Project #105, published 23 February 2021)Marketing author and daily blogger; founder of the altMBA and the Akimbo workshops, and author of books including Purple Cow and This Is Marketing.26 Mar 2024 · 1h 21m · 16 korrentsOn design

Seth Godin: "Failure is Learning on Your Way to Mastery" and Other Advice for Creativity (The Knowledge Project #105, published 23 February 2021)

Seth Godin

Our reading — their words are on the recording

0:08:49
Our reading
No business has everyone as its customer, so the goal is the smallest viable audience rather than the biggest possible one.
Their wordsnobody has everyone as their customer. Nobody. Maybe the water company, but that's about it. Our goal cannot be to be for everyone. That we have to be for someone. The smallest viable audience, not the biggest possible audience.
product management
0:09:30
Our reading
The internet is a micro medium: it reaches specific people better than any medium before it and reaches everyone badly.
Their wordsThe internet is a micro medium. It is the best medium ever developed to reach specific people, but it is terrible at reaching everyone. There is no homepage. It is impossible to reach a hundred million people in one day on the internet, which is something TV used to do every night.
0:10:28
Our reading
Even the most commercially successful books are written for a very small group of people rather than for everyone.
Their wordsUh Harry Potter, the most successful uh book franchise in history, it made the author over a billion dollars. That book is for almost no one. Right? That book is for precocious 12-year-olds and people who like to remember what was like to be a precocious 12-year-old. That's not everyone. That's a very small group of people.
0:11:39
Our reading
Naming a narrow audience puts a creator on the hook, while claiming the work is for everyone is a way to hide from failure.
Their wordsthe way to be on the hook is to say, "This is only for people who are like this." Because if those people hate it, then you were wrong. Whereas if you say, "This is for everyone," you're allowed to hide behind, "Well, everyone hasn't found it yet."
design
0:17:41
Our reading
Reading and listening are only preparation; learning happens by doing, and it consists of failing on the way to mastery.
Their wordsThe only way to learn is by doing things. That we can read about how to swim and we can read about how to make uh uh uh a vegetarian maki roll, but you will not learn how to do it until you do it. And the reading, the listening is important preparation, but learning is the act of failing on our way to mastery.
education
0:25:24
Our reading
Leaving an old relationship for a new one is usually shopping for novelty rather than refusing to honour a sunk cost.
Their wordsa new relationship is like fresh powder. It is new and shiny and exciting but it will not be a new relationship for long. And then you're still stuck with an old relationship and the question is will your old relationship a year from now be better than your old relationship that you currently have is? And if the answer is yes then yes sunk costs completely apply. But if the answer is no then what you're really doing is shopping for novelty not ignoring sunk costs.
behavioural science

Shane Parrish, soloFounder of Farnam Street (fs.blog) and host of The Knowledge Project podcast. Writes and curates on decision-making, mental models and rational thinking.3 Oct 2023 · 11m · 12 korrentsOn agency, discipline and behavioural science

STOP Playing Life on HARD MODE! | Shane Parrish

Shane Parrish

Our reading — their words are on the recording

1:10
Our reading
The best aid to judgment is starting a decision from a good position, and people forget to ask whether they are acting from strength or weakness when the moment arrives.
Their wordsthe greatest Aid to judgment is starting from a good position this is such a key Insight we often think about making the best decision possible in the moment and forget about whether we're operating from a position of strength or weakness when the moment arises
agency
2:36
Our reading
Over the long run, the average person who keeps putting themselves in a good position beats the genius who is in a poor one, and what looks like talent is often good positioning.
Their wordsit's hard to appreciate that over the long run the average person who constantly puts themselves in a good position beats the genius who finds themsel in a poor position what looks like Talent is often good positioning
agency
2:58
Our reading
The best in the world make consistently good decisions largely because circumstances rarely force a decision on them, as they almost always operate from a position of strength.
Their wordsone reason the best in the world make consistently good decisions is they rarely find themselves forced into a decision by circumstances they almost always operate from a position of strength
agency
3:21
Our reading
Willpower eventually loses, so safeguards are needed to change behaviour.
Their wordseventually everyone loses the battle with willpower sometimes it's really hard to do the things we want to do so we can use safeguards to to change our Behavior
discipline
4:01
Our reading
Rules decided in advance by a person's best self, such as "I don't eat dessert", can take the place of willpower when the situation arrives.
Their wordsyour best self can create automatic rules for these situations before you face them your rule can be I don't eat dessert
discipline
5:01
Our reading
Working out every day changes the internal question from whether to do it to how to fit it in, which removes the negotiation with oneself.
Their wordsthe way around this negotiation with yourself is to work out every day the conversation in your head goes from should I work out today to when and how do I fit this in
discipline health and fitness

Ray DalioPrinciples for a Life Well Lived - Knowledge Project Podcast ArchiveFounder of Bridgewater Associates, which he led from 1975 until stepping back from control in 2022. Author of Principles, The Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke; publishes economic analysis at economicprinciples.org.27 Sept 2022 · 1h 27m · 12 korrentsOn humility and curiosity

Ray Dalio: Principles for a Life Well Lived | Knowledge Project Podcast Archive

Ray Dalio

Our reading — their words are on the recording

0:02:10
Our reading
Studying history for the cause-and-effect mechanics of things that happen over and over again allows the rules to be converted into algorithms.
Their wordseverything happens over and over again all right everything um I we think of this as everything's another one of those so by being able to look at history and make the connections and examine how the mechanics of the cause effect relationships are that's what we spend a lot out of time doing and then we convert those rules those principles into algorithms
AI and science
0:12:18
Our reading
Asking "how do I know I'm right?" and triangulating, instead of assuming one is right, gives the humility to balance audacity and brings open-mindedness.
Their wordsI went from thinking you know I'm right to asking myself how do I know I'm right in other words how do I triangulate it gave me the humility I needed to balance with my audacity and so then it gave me an open-mindedness
humility
0:13:22
Our reading
Holding wrong opinions one is attached to and does not stress test may be the greatest tragedy of most people, and putting ideas out to be stress tested raises the probability of being right.
Their wordsI think the greatest tragedy of mankind and the greatest tragedy of most people is to hold opinions in their head that are wrong that they're attached to and that they don't stress test it's so easy to take those ideas and properly put them out there in an idea meritocratic way and have them stress tests which raises the probabilities of being right
humility
0:13:52
Our reading
Risk can be reduced without reducing returns by structuring bets in a more diversified way.
Their wordsI learned how to balance risks better right so I learned that if um how I could reduce my risks without reducing my returns by being able to literally structure my bets in a more Diversified way
investing
0:14:17
Our reading
Surprise usually comes from something that has not happened in one's own lifetime but did happen before, so it is not seen or thought about.
Their wordswhenever I was surprised and I think whenever most people it's surprised it's because of something that never happened in their lifetime before but it happened before so it doesn't happen in their context but it happens so you don't see it so you don't think about it
world models
0:15:52
Our reading
Writing down the criteria used for each important decision turns them into principles that can be reused and refined.
Their wordsI developed an exercise that I would write down my criteria for making those decisions so that would be my principles
documentation

#144 · Gary KleinResearch psychologist who founded naturalistic decision making, the study of how experts decide in the field, and developed the recognition-primed decision model from studies of fireground commanders. He wrote Sources of Power and Seeing What Others Don't, runs the ShadowBox decision-training method, and ran an adversarial collaboration with Daniel Kahneman on the conditions under which expert intuition can be trusted.9 Aug 2022 · 1h 39m · 16 korrentsOn behavioural science and metascience

Insights for Making Better Decisions | Gary Klein | Knowledge Project 144

Gary Klein

Our reading — their words are on the recording

0:06:46
Our reading
Organizations sincerely believe they want insights and still suppress them, because insights are disorganizing.
Their wordsWhat blocks insight is that organizations say they want insights and they want innovation and they really don't. But they're they're being serious. They think they want insights. But insights are disorganizing.
0:16:12
Our reading
Experts stay highly aware of their own mistakes, and the people who stall at competence are the ones who move on and forget theirs.
Their wordsSo, experts are highly aware of mistakes. But people who are journeymen, many of them stay as journeymen because they they want to move on and forget about their mistakes.
behavioural science
0:21:32
Our reading
A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance.
Their wordsI may have I may be an investor. I have a track record of calling the market right in the last five times. People say, "Wow, he really knows what he's talking about." But there are lots of people who are trying to predict which way the market is going to go. And some of them are going to get it right by chance. And people assume it's because they know what they're what they're doing, and in fact they're just the lucky ones.
0:25:07
Our reading
A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck.
Their wordsNow, some decisions may have been good decisions that didn't work through no fault of the employee. And some may have been bad decisions that worked because the employee got lucky. So, you can't just look at the outcome, but you have to look at what What was the person thinking about when they made the decision?
behavioural science
0:38:55
Our reading
Scientists use the same knowledge shields as everyone else, explaining away inconvenient data to hold on to their story.
Their wordsBut the researchers who have investigated this find that scientists do the same thing. They have something that's called knowledge shields, the way all of us do, that that a a a variety of techniques for explaining away inconvenient data and anomalies. But what we're effectively doing is we're holding on to our story.
metascience
0:40:47
Our reading
Fixation errors come from explaining away anomalies and holding on to a wrong first impression until it is far too late.
Their wordsSo we we want people, that's the way we break out of fixation, is we notice the anomalies. The way we get stuck in fixation and making fixation errors is we explain away the anomalies, hold on to the original wrong impression until it's far too late.
behavioural science

Marc AndreessenCo-founder of Netscape and of the venture firm Andreessen Horowitz. Wrote the Techno-Optimist Manifesto and “Why AI Will Save The World”.25 Jan 2022 · 1h 17m · 16 korrentsOn startups, education and government

Inside the Mind of A Famous Investor | Marc Andreessen

Marc Andreessen

Our reading — their words are on the recording

0:03:29
Our reading
Reading further back in history shows that what feels new and unique to the present era is usually a very old pattern.
Their wordsWhat what I find generally is if I don't understand something, I I try to read backwards and and and kind of the further back back I read, the more universal things I find. And the more things that I think are kind of remarkable and unique to our era actually turn out to be quite universal.
0:07:14
Our reading
Hostility to a new technology comes from people whose power rests on the old one, because the new technology reorders who holds status.
Their wordsAnd so all of the people who have achieved positions of power and authority in the world based on prior generations of technology are inherently threatened by new technology because new technology will upend the power and status structures and then a new set of people will, you know, come to the foreground and and take the power.
0:12:37
Our reading
The deepest political conflict of the internet era is between those using the network to reinforce top-down power and those using it to disrupt it.
Their wordswhat we have now is kind of at the at the sort of deepest level what we have is kind of this big fight between people who want to use the internet to basically reinforce top-down power uh, versus people who want to use it to disrupt top-down power.
government
0:17:05
Our reading
Open access to information makes a closed information regime on the Soviet model fundamentally impossible to sustain.
Their wordsit's like could you ever have another Soviet Union like in the era of the internet? Um you know North Korea's doing their damndest to try to maintain that model you know but without going full North Korea like I'm not sure you can. I I mean, I guess I'm an optimist on this point. Like I tend to think open access information basically makes a lot of these historical things, you know, fundamentally impossible.
government censorship
0:21:01
Our reading
A successful startup takes about five years to become an incumbent, and defending what it has built is the rational thing for it to do.
Their wordsA successful startup has about five years until they become a new incumbent. Um and and they actually start to behave like an incumbent. That's rational. Like of course that's rational. Like they've now built something worth defending.
startups
0:22:31
Our reading
The drift from attacking to defending is a temptation facing every incumbent rather than a fault of any particular company.
Their wordsI I would I would not say that about Google. I would just say that more generally like that is the incumbent temptation. Um it is is basically is basically go from attack mode to defend mode, right? Go from being the pirate to being the navy.

#94 · Chamath PalihapitiyaFreedom, Bitcoin, and First PrinciplesFounder and CEO of the venture firm Social Capital, co-host of the All-In podcast, and an early executive at Facebook.13 Oct 2020 · 1h 30m · 10 korrentsOn behavioural science, investing and curiosity

Chamath Palihapitiya: Freedom, Bitcoin, and First Principles | The Knowledge Project #94

Chamath Palihapitiya

All 10 from this episode, along the running time →

Our reading — their words are on the recording

0:37:00
Our reading
Observing the present in a reasonably unemotional and detached way makes it possible to put a plan together.
Their wordsif I can observe the present in a reasonably unemotional and detached way, to your point, I can put a plan together.
agency
0:42:31
Our reading
When the direction of a variable such as interest rates is unknown, one can allocate to sectors that benefit either way.
Their wordswhat sectors of the economy will benefit irrespective of whether we go to -5 or +5? Because I don't know what the answer to that question is.
interest rates investing
0:52:53
Our reading
The main fight in investing is with oneself: panicking, overreacting, underreacting, refusing to observe the present, living in the past or over-believing in the future are psychological traps.
Their wordswhen push comes to shove, um what you're always going to be fighting is yourself. Um panicking, overreacting, underreacting, um you know, um refusing to observe the present, um living too much in the past, wanting too much to believe in the future. So, it's all psychological traps.
investing behavioural science
0:53:56
Our reading
Defining behavioural principles that protect against the worst parts of one's own psychology can be a winning investment strategy.
Their wordsif you define certain behavioral principles that protect you from the worst parts of your own psychology, um that's a winning strategy.
investing behavioural science
0:55:38
Our reading
Understanding oneself and turning it into written guardrails that one sticks to is an important practice.
Their wordsI really think that spending time understanding yourself and then translating that into actionable guardrails that you write down and you stick to um, is a really important thing.
discipline
1:00:00
Our reading
Obvious questions to CEOs draw practised answers, so pattern recognition built on them is brittle and superficial.
Their wordsI've learned that my pattern recognition before was too brittle. It was too superficial. I would ask dumb obvious questions for which any good CEO will have very good practiced answers.
curiosity

#68 · Daniel KahnemanPsychologist and Nobel laureate (1934 to 2024); shared the 2002 Nobel memorial prize in economic sciences for integrating psychological research into economics; with Amos Tversky, developed prospect theory and the study of heuristics and biases.12 Oct 2019 · 1h 06m · 12 korrentsOn behavioural science, humility and management

Daniel Kahneman | The Knowledge Project #68

Daniel Kahneman

Our reading — their words are on the recording

0:23:00
Our reading
The reasons people give for their beliefs are not the causes of those beliefs; mostly people believe because they trust certain others and adopt their beliefs.
Their wordsif you ask me for reasons I'll explain you I'll always find a reason but the reasons are not the causes of our beliefs we have beliefs because mostly we believe in some people and we trust them and we adopt their beliefs
behavioural science
0:26:31
Our reading
A basic rule for better decisions is to slow down, especially when there is an immediate conviction.
Their wordsone basic rule is slow down especially if you if you have the immediate conviction slow down
patience
0:31:37
Our reading
Delaying intuition until each dimension has been assessed separately and a whole profile exists tends to give a better judgment, because rapid intuitions are not particularly good.
Their wordsthe key is delay your intuition don't try to form an intuition quickly which is what we normally do focus on the separate points and then when you have the whole profile then you can have an intuition and it's going to be better because people make form intuitions too quickly and the rapid intuitions are not particularly good
patience behavioural science
0:33:10
Our reading
Forming an impression very quickly leads to spending the time confirming it rather than collecting evidence, so a wrong first impression is unlikely to be corrected.
Their wordsthere is the way in which people form impressions very quickly to form an impression and then you spend most of your time confirming it instead of collecting evidence and so if accidentally your impression was in the wrong direction we are going to confirm it and you don't give yourself a chance to correct it
behavioural science
0:38:23
Our reading
Organizations are a better hope than individuals for improving judgment, because they think more slowly and have procedures that can be controlled, while individual judgment is really hard to fix.
Their wordsI'm much more hopeful about organizations because organizations think more slowly and they have procedures for thinking and so you can control the procedures individual judgement is really hard to fix not impossible
optimism management
0:41:08
Our reading
The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean.
Their wordsthere is a more subtle error and harder harder to fix but that the best prediction the best guess is always less extreme than your impression intuitive prediction is as we say not progressive it doesn't recognize regression to the mean
behavioural science