Being certain a technology matters tells you almost nothing about where its value will end up being captured.

Technology analyst whose weekly email on tech reaches over 150,000 readers

It wasn't clear that the browser wasn't where the value capture was cuz Microsoft crowbarred its way into dominance in browsers but that turned out not to matter and then all the value is in search advertising and social which were 5 years later and 10 years later and so like you can be very very clear that this is the thing and then still be completely unclear how it's going to work.