Daniel Kahneman | The Knowledge Project #68

1. 0:23:00 · watch on youtube.com↗

   Our reading

   The reasons people give for their beliefs are not the causes of those beliefs; mostly people believe because they trust certain others and adopt their beliefs.

   Their wordsif you ask me for reasons I'll explain you I'll always find a reason but the reasons are not the causes of our beliefs we have beliefs because mostly we believe in some people and we trust them and we adopt their beliefs

2. 4 min later

3. 0:26:31 · watch on youtube.com↗

   Our reading

   A basic rule for better decisions is to slow down, especially when there is an immediate conviction.

   Their wordsone basic rule is slow down especially if you if you have the immediate conviction slow down

4. 5 min later

5. 0:31:37 · watch on youtube.com↗

   Our reading

   Delaying intuition until each dimension has been assessed separately and a whole profile exists tends to give a better judgment, because rapid intuitions are not particularly good.

   Their wordsthe key is delay your intuition don't try to form an intuition quickly which is what we normally do focus on the separate points and then when you have the whole profile then you can have an intuition and it's going to be better because people make form intuitions too quickly and the rapid intuitions are not particularly good

6. 2 min later

7. 0:33:10 · watch on youtube.com↗

   Our reading

   Forming an impression very quickly leads to spending the time confirming it rather than collecting evidence, so a wrong first impression is unlikely to be corrected.

   Their wordsthere is the way in which people form impressions very quickly to form an impression and then you spend most of your time confirming it instead of collecting evidence and so if accidentally your impression was in the wrong direction we are going to confirm it and you don't give yourself a chance to correct it

8. 5 min later

9. 0:38:23 · watch on youtube.com↗

   Our reading

   Organizations are a better hope than individuals for improving judgment, because they think more slowly and have procedures that can be controlled, while individual judgment is really hard to fix.

   Their wordsI'm much more hopeful about organizations because organizations think more slowly and they have procedures for thinking and so you can control the procedures individual judgement is really hard to fix not impossible

10. 3 min later

11. 0:41:08 · watch on youtube.com↗

    Our reading

    The best prediction is always less extreme than the impression it is based on, but intuitive prediction is non-regressive and ignores regression to the mean.

    Their wordsthere is a more subtle error and harder harder to fix but that the best prediction the best guess is always less extreme than your impression intuitive prediction is as we say not progressive it doesn't recognize regression to the mean

12. 8 min later

13. 0:49:03 · watch on youtube.com↗

    Our reading

    A pre-mortem makes it possible to voice doubts when a group is nearing a decision, a point at which dissent is otherwise hard to raise.

    Their wordsit's beautiful because when people are coming close to a decision it becomes difficult to raise doubts or to raise questions people who are flowing the group down when the group's is nearing a decision a perceivers really you know person I mean you know this you want to get rid of them and the pre-mortem legitimizes that sort of descent and that sort of doubts not only legitimizes that too much rewards it

14. 5 min later

15. 0:54:21 · watch on youtube.com↗

    Our reading

    Keeping track of decisions and how they turned out allows later evaluation of the procedures that produced the good and the bad ones.

    Their wordsI would advise people make a lot of decisions to keep track their decisions and of how they turned out so that later you can come and and evaluate your procedures and and see whether there is anything that is in common with those decision that turned out well and then not so well

16. 5 min later

17. 0:59:22 · watch on youtube.com↗

    Our reading

    Noise is useless variability: unlike variability that has a selection mechanism and feedback, as in evolution, nothing is learned from it and it is costly.

    Their wordswe call that noises useless variability I mean variability can be very useful if you have a selection mechanism and some feedback so evolution is built up variability but of course it's useful but noise among underwriters is useless there's nothing nothing gets learned there's no feedback it's just noise and it's costly

19. 0:59:49 · watch on youtube.com↗

    Our reading

    Algorithms beat people at judgment, which is not intuitive but is true, so they are the first recommended remedy for noise.

    Their wordsthe first advice of course would be algorithms as I said earlier so algorithm are better than people on judgments that's not intuitive but it's really it's really true

20. 2 min later

21. 1:02:13 · watch on youtube.com↗

    Our reading

    Published evidence should not be accepted just because it is published, since things can be published even if they are not true.

    Their wordsI thought that you had to accept it because that was published evidence and and I should have blamed myself for having been a big gullible that as I should have known that you can publish things even if they're not true

22. 3 min later

23. 1:05:35 · watch on youtube.com↗

    Our reading

    Strong intuitions that seem clear lack a way of calibrating, which makes people wildly overconfident about what they know and reluctant to accept they may be wrong.

    Their wordswe have no way of calibrating ourselves so that makes us wildly overconfident about what we know and reluctant to accept that we may be wrong