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Cheaper means more, not less

Make something cheaper to use and people use so much more of it that the total goes up (Jevons paradox).

Our reading of the idea · 5 claims from 5 people, in their own words

Who thinks with this

David Heinemeier HanssonDoug O'LaughlinDylan PatelLinus BlomqvistZeke Hausfather

Peak programmer has passed: the economic value of writing code by hand has peaked, and Jevons' paradox will not bail every programmer out.

  1. David Heinemeier Hansson · changed Creator of Ruby on Rails, CTO of 37signals So, I do think it is correct for the average programmer to think maybe we've seen the best of the golden days. DHH’s new way of writing codeyoutube.com · 8 Apr 2026 · 1:19:13 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsSo, I do think it is correct for the average programmer to think maybe we've seen the best of the golden days.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 1:19:13 plays here

    ↗DHH’s new way of writing codeyoutube.com

    8 Apr 2026 · video · 1h 47m · spoken · machine transcript

Cheaper models raise the demand for compute rather than lowering it: H100 rental prices went up in the weeks after DeepSeek launched.

  1. Dylan Patel Founder and chief executive of SemiAnalysis But the funniest thing I think that comes out of this is Jevons paradox is true. AWS pricing for H100s has gone up over the last couple of weeks, since a little bit after Christmas, since V3 was launched, AWS H100 pricing has gone up. DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459youtube.com · 3 Feb 2025 · 3:17:11 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsBut the funniest thing I think that comes out of this is Jevons paradox is true. AWS pricing for H100s has gone up over the last couple of weeks, since a little bit after Christmas, since V3 was launched, AWS H100 pricing has gone up.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 3:17:11 plays here

    ↗DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459youtube.com

    3 Feb 2025 · video · 5h 06m · spoken · official transcript

Cheaper AI will be used more in the long run and still strand the hardware built for it in the short run, exactly as unlit fibre did after 2001.

  1. Doug O'Laughlin Semiconductor analyst, author of the Fabricated Knowledge… And so, while the Jevons paradox case was 100% correct in the long run, 97% of the fiber laid in 2001 was unlit. DeepSeek: Is this Jevon's Cope?fabricatedknowledge.com · 29 Jan 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsAnd so, while the Jevons paradox case was 100% correct in the long run, 97% of the fiber laid in 2001 was unlit.

    ↗DeepSeek: Is this Jevon's Cope?fabricatedknowledge.com

    29 Jan 2025

Making AI compute cheaper per token drives enough extra usage that total AI energy consumption rises rather than falls (a Jevons paradox effect).

  1. Zeke Hausfather Climate scientist and energy systems analyst This is the Jevons paradox in action: making compute cheaper per token in turn tends to lead to greater levels of AI use. The real energy use of agentic AItheclimatebrink.com · 5 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThis is the Jevons paradox in action: making compute cheaper per token in turn tends to lead to greater levels of AI use.

    ↗The real energy use of agentic AItheclimatebrink.com

    5 Aug 2026

The claim that higher yields backfire and end up increasing farmland is much weaker than the literature assumes.

  1. Linus Blomqvist Environmental economist at the UC Santa Barbara Bren… In sum, land sparing is common at the local level and the norm at the global scale, in contrast to recent appeals to Jevons' paradox. Raising Agricultural Yields Spares Landthebreakthrough.org · 13 Mar 2024All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsIn sum, land sparing is common at the local level and the norm at the global scale, in contrast to recent appeals to Jevons' paradox.

    ↗Raising Agricultural Yields Spares Landthebreakthrough.org

    13 Mar 2024

More in systems

Feedback loops Compounding Bottlenecks When a measure becomes a target Power laws Exponential growth S-curves and diminishing returns Emergence Everything decays without maintenance Conway's law